ED815 -- The Future of Educational Institutions: Topics and Trends -- Discussions
Based on an examination of the formative ideas which have shaped educational institutions, this course explores both the theory and practice of changing educational institutions to meet future needs. An understanding of the philosophy of American education, as well as a knowledge of institutional change, will be necessary in this course.
Welcome to your Capella University online course, ED815 - The Future of Educational Institutions. This course explores the theory and practice of changing educational institutions to meet future needs. In the readings, discussions, and writing exercises of this course, you will be encouraged to think about both the content of future education (WHAT the future will look like) and about the process of futures thinking (HOW to go about it). 

The course will engage you in working with a small learning team to help each member extend his or her knowledge of future thinking tools and methods. 

You will be asked to create a vision of the education future you expect and to consider the forces and obstacles that will be encountered. As Alexander and Serfass state, "Vision is our window to the future" (p. vii). While a vision "is a dream of a possible future that sets a direction for an organization, a strategic quality future goes further by providing a systematic approach to imagining possible futures" (p. vii). 

The ideal atmosphere of this online course will be that of colleagues thinking together, exploring each other's views, respectfully challenging conventional assumptions about society and about education, and seeking to share our personal visions of the future. The instructor's role will be to partner with you in these discussions, to help you navigate the resources and ideas we generate, and to learn with you.

Program Outcomes

Through this course, you are expected to:

Demonstrate an understanding of effective learning communities and the teacher's role in forming collaborative relationships with learners, colleagues, and the community. (1.)

Demonstrate an understanding of the social and cultural context of education and the implications for practice. (3.)

Demonstrate an understanding of the role of change in the educational environment. (7.)

Demonstrate an ability to critically evaluate and analyze research literature that applies to an educational setting (8.)

Speak and write clearly and convincingly about current educational issues. (10.)

Course Outline

Unit 1: Introduction to Futures Study - Why Study the Future?

Unit 2: Scanning the Environment.

Unit 3: Issues Today and in the Future.

Unit 4: How Do We Study the Future Using Futuring Tools?

Unit 5: The Delphi Technique.

Unit 6: Scenario Building.

Unit 7: The Futuring Tree.

Unit 8: Why Study the Future - Revisited.

Unit 9: Posting Drafts for Feedback.

Unit 10: Reflections and Posting of Final Project.

Course Requirements and Grading

Course requirements include three major independent measures of learner competency:
CourseRoom participation 40% of grade. 
See the "ED815 Rubrics" in the MediaCenter for additional information.
Unit AssignmentS 40% of grade. 
See the "ED815 Rubrics" in the MediaCenter for additional information.
Course Project 20% of grade. 
See the "ED815 Rubrics" in the MediaCenter for additional information.
Note: If you are using special screen-reading software, an alternative version of the "ED815 Rubrics," titled "ED815 Rubrics (screen-reader accessible version)" is also available in the MediaCenter.
http://www.learn-usa.com/  website for educational reform
instructor,   Howard Jacobs,   hrjacobs@earthlink.net 
Dr. Howard Jacobs
hrjacobs@earthlink.net			        PMB644

13300 Bothell Everett Highway
Mill Creek, WA 98012 
Phone: 425-359-0685
Fax: 425-645-2000
Profile:
School: American English School
Dept. Head: Patricia Ting
Richard Bloodworth c/o Patricia Ting
# 63, 3rd. Fl., Chung-Hsin Rd., Sec 4, San Chung City, Taipei Hsien, Taiwan
Cell: 886-0911354352
For the past several years I have been teaching English in in foreign countries ( Seoul, South Korea; Tokyo and Chiba, Japan; Prague, Czech Republic; Istanbul, Turkey; Xi'an and Shanghai, China; and now Taipei, Taiwan). Prior to teaching English I was employed in mostly arts related activities having studied art and architecture. I received a BFA degree from the University of Georgia. I have lived mostly in Athens and Atlanta, GA in addition to the above mentioned cities and I have traveled around Europe and Asia
Clemson University (architecture, literature, calculus, etc. courses)
Georgia State University (art, history, literature, human evolution, political science, physics, astronomy, philosophy, etc. courses)
Georgia Institute of Technology (architecture)
UGA art and history studies abroad in Cortona, Italy
University of Georgia (art, literature, psychology, French, calculus, biology, physical education, philosophy, etc. courses) BFA: drawing and painting.
Traveling, and also reading, listening to music, good conversation, watching movies, tennis, swimming, bicycling, to name a few.
******************
Discussion 1.1
U1D1

Introduce yourself. Describe your current job or profession and you educational goals at Capella. Has your coursework been useful in your career up to this point?
Hello, my name is Richard Bloodworth.  For the past several years I have been teaching English in in foreign  countries ( Seoul, South Korea; Tokyo and Chiba, Japan; Prague, Czech Republic; Istanbul, Turkey; Xi'an and Shanghai, China; and now Taipei, Taiwan -- so PM to me could be AM to you and vice versa ).  Prior to the English teaching I was employed in mostly arts related activities having studied art and architecture.  I received a BFA degree from the University of Georgia.   I have lived mostly in Athens and Atlanta, GA in addition to the above mentioned cities and I have traveled around Europe and Asia.  
I am now teaching English at the American English School in Taipei, Taiwan.  I am pursuing a Master's in Professional Studies in Education. My previous courses at Capella were ED: 5004/5, 8111, 5006, 814, 7700, 7701.  The courses through Capella have all been useful up to this point as I plan on using them all for the integrative project at the end of the courses and afterwards as well.
Richard
RESPONSES:
U1D1 Comment to Fredi
Hello, again.  I look forward to reading your thoughts in this course.  By the way, I'd like to read your ED814 paper if you can send it as an attachment to my email address.  I can send you mine too if you'd like.  My email address is RBloodworth99@yahoo.com.
Richard
U1D1 Comment to Karen
Hello Karen,
Since I studied art, majoring in drawing and painting, and having done a lot of artwork myself (portraits, architectural renderings, murals, illustrations) I am interested in your biographical profile and  I'd also like to see some of your illustrations.  Do you have any I could see online, either on a website or sent to my email address?  My email address is RBloodworth99@yahoo.com.
Richard
U1D1 Comment to Thurman
Hello Thurman,
I just saw, in a science museum, a demonstration of how nuclear energy is derived from Uranium.  Is that where your nuclear energy comes from?  One problem with nuclear energy is nuclear waste.  Do you think in the future there will be a way to make the waste not radioactive rather than just burying it waiting for the effects to diminish through half-life decomposition?  By the way, perhaps I could look this up, but why is radioactivity so dangerous?  What does it do to harm living organisms: does it change the atomic structures in the body (say from positive to negative charges) or does it burn like heat?  Just curious.
Richard
U1D1 Comment to Carolyn
Hello Carolyn,
Is that number 11 jersey that Garner is wearing in your Profile photograph from a gym in Texas or somewhere in China (or somewhere else)?  Just Curious.
Richard
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U1D2

Identify current issues and/or trends impacting your professional environments. Do you believe that these issues or trends are lasting or temporary? What evidence can you cite to support your beliefs? Think carefully about these trends because you will continue to work with them throughout this course.
Technology is changing the world situation at a rapid pace in all aspects: educationally, socially, politically, environmentally, economically, culturally, etc.  The issue of technology is lasting in the sense that technology will always affect how life and educational processes are conducted, however,  new technologies are constantly being introduced so that one needs to constantly become acquainted with and trained in new technological techniques so in that sense the effects of technology are transitory or temporary.
In the educational field, one example of the new uses of technology is the use of distance learning using online instruction via the Internet.  In addition to technology, issues that impact the living and professional environments are the decentralization of all processes, globalization, and the democratization of society.
Thomas Heaney in Adult Education for Social Change: From Center Stage to the Wings and Back Again views adult education as participatory and as a tool for social change where educational progressivism is the modern approach to educating the public.  " 'Adult education turns out to be the most reliable instrument for social actionists' since it assures that any action undertaken would be authentically democratic" (Brookfield 1984).  Eduard Lindeman, as influenced by John Dewey (Democracy and Education), considers adult education to be intertwined with democracy, social action, and control by people over their daily decisions.  To Lindeman, adult education equals social change, a method to create good and productive citizens.  Even if education is viewed as a "great selector" rather than a "great equalizer" (p. 4),  each person can, as a result of education, find their niche, based on their abilities and merits, within a democratic society.   The concept of using the educational system to implement a direct democracy is closely connected with the ideas expressed by Heaney, Miles Horton, Paulo Freire, and Jack Mezirow since their approach is to empower the populace through education in order to create a democratic society.  It is necessary to have an educated public in order to have a direct democracy work efficiently so democracy is dependent the educational system to survive and prosper.  
My interest is in developing, by utilizing the educational system, a system of direct democracy which is basically having citizens vote directly on legislative issues rather than electing representatives who can, after elected, vote any way they choose. Direct democracy is a concept which began in ancient Athens, Greece where all citizens voted directly on legislative issues.  In the modern world, direct democracy was considered impractical to implement on a large scale but it is now possible with the advent of computer and Internet technologies.
References:
Dewey, John. (1944).  Democracy and Education. New York: Simon & Schuster Inc.
Heaney, Thomas. Adult Education for Social Change: From Center Stage to the Wings and Back Again.  (1996).  Retrieved April 5, 2004 from  http://www.nl.edu/ace/Resources/Documents/ERIC1.html
RESPONSES:
U1D2 Comment to Greg
I have heard of No Child Left Behind referred to often in these online courses.  Is there some online manifesto or document that you know of that describes the policies involved in this program?
Richard
U1D2 Comment to Karen
Anything new is viewed with conservative suspicion.  I like to think of the first wave of students in the online learning format as pioneers.  When everyone realizes its effectiveness as a learning technique then it will become as accepted as traditional classroom learning (though in conjunction with and as a supplement to traditional classroom learning).  There are some courses that would not be taken online such as portrait painting (though someone could study online the art history of portraits and formulas involved in portrait painting), violin playing, acting or drama, singing, etc. but theories and readings involved in these subjects could be taken online.
Richard
U1D2 Comment to Cheryl
I can relate to not being able to speak a language in a foreign country: it is similar to being a functional illiterate or worse in some ways since a functional illiterate can at least speak the language in the country in which he resides, he just can't read or write it.  Of course, being a teacher in a foreign country is a much different situation than what you are describing but I can relate to the frustration that the non-English speaking people that you referred to in your posting.  There should be translators available and English classes for those people.
Richard
U1D2 Comment to Lisa
Lisa,  I agree that online and distance learning is the wave of the future in this global information age in which we all reside.
Richard
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View the postings of at least three other learners who did not select the same topics as you and discover why they are interested in the topics they selected.
U1D3
Post the Web resources that you found discussing current issues/trends and annotate. 

http://www.ericfacility.net/ericdigests/ed410176.html.  This site involves global trends in civic education for democracy and explores the instruction of core concepts and comparative analyses of democratic systems worldwide and the development of participatory skills for the implementation of democratic processes.
http://www.civiced.org/articles_indonesia.html.  This site discusses global trends in civic education procedures and effectiveness of civic education as practiced in Indonesia.
http://www.bf.rmit.edu.au/kgeiselhart/e-_democracy_resources_.htm  This site by Steven Clift lists links and references to e-democracy and e-government.
http://faculty.washington.edu/stkerr/ethb94.htm This site is from the Handbook of Research on Educational Technology. This chapter, Toward a Sociology of Educational Technology is by Stephen T. Kerr of the University of Washington and describes the development and use of technology in education and its sociological implications.
http://ultibase.rmit.edu.au/Articles/may01/geiselhart1.htm In the article, Teaching Technology to Share, Karin Geiselhart discusses technology, education, and democracy in the information age.
RESPONSES:
U1D3 Comment to Lisa
These are informative websites on adult education. You might be familiar with this article but it has useful information concerning preparing adults as participating members of a democratic society:  
Heaney, Thomas. Adult Education for Social Change: From Center Stage to the Wings and Back Again.  (1996).  Retrieved April 5, 2004 from  http://www.nl.edu/ace/Resources/Documents/ERIC1.html

U1D3 Comment to Christy
These are some great sites on distance learning.  I like articles that list issues and then discuss each one under the headings.  They're much easier to read and assimilate in that form
Richard
U1D3 Comment to Carolyn
These are some informative web resources for e-learning and higher education.
Richard
--
U1D1 Response to All
I look forward to reading all of your comments as the course progresses and am "looking forward" to exploring concepts about the future with you all.
Richard
U1D1 response to JB.
In today's world your question is valid since we can be anywhere in the world and be involved in online courses such as these courses but, yes, I am teaching in Taipei, Taiwan now.
Richard
U1D2 from JB
Hello Richard,

I think that your desire to build a system of direct democracy so citizens can vote directly on legislative issues rather than electing representatives who has great potential! Are you actively involved in politics or voter registration now?
from Howard
Richard, you made some interesting comments about technology and direct democracy. In Washington State recently, Internet voting was recently defeated in the legislature because of the concern over fraud. I believe this is a temporary setback and is something we will be doing soon. I am not sure about direct deo9mocracy -- what would happen to all those lobbyists :-)
from Thurm
Richard,your concept is very interesting,because I believe that all tax payers should have the ability to vote on issues concerning their well being.
U1D2 Response to Thurm, JB, and Howard
I think some version of what I am thinking of will happen in the future since, as Thurm mentions, the people should determine their own future and government which is, after all,  the meaning of democracy.  To JB: I am involved in politics to the extent that I am researching and writing on this subject and I vote myself.  To Howard: there is always resistence and skepticism to new ideas (though beginning 2500 years ago, democracy can hardly be considered a new idea).  The same people who are worried about Internet fraud for voting are probably unconcerned about online banking transactions, which is how practically all funds are transferred nowadays, and the same type of technology can be used in Internet voting.  Also, perhaps the legislators feel that their jobs and roles are threatened but my idea involves adding direct democracy to the representative legislatures and not replacing them completely.  As for the lobbyists, maybe they can look for new work: perhaps the Mafia would have some available positions for them.  
Richard
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Unit 2  Environmental scanning
Activity 2.1:

Read Chapter 2, "Strategic Quality Planning" in Alexander & Serfass.

Activity 2.2:

Discuss in dyads what you consider to be the emerging trends and issues affecting each of your academic environments. What similarities and differences can you identify? Save this response so you can post for Discussion 2.1.

Activity 2.3:

Search the Internet to identify and annotate two Web resources related to this unit. Read the "ED815 Webliography Guidelines," found in the MediaCenter, for specific requirements. (8.a, 8.b)
Discussion 2.1:

Work with your dyad partner and determine the emerging trends and issues affecting each of your academic environments. What similarities and differences can you identify? Send a draft response to one another for peer review, and post your final draft.
Discussion areas:
K-12 Education
Post Secondary Education
Instructional Technology
Private Organization/Government other than education
Other
U2D1
As I mentioned in Unit 1, technology is changing the world situation at a rapid pace in all aspects: educationally, socially, politically, environmentally, economically, and culturally.   In the educational field, one example of the new uses of technology is the use of distance learning using online instruction via the Internet.  In addition to technology, issues that impact the living and professional environments are the decentralization of all processes, globalization, and the democratization of society.  My interest is in developing, by utilizing the educational system, a system of direct democracy which is basically having citizens vote directly on legislative issues rather than only electing representatives who can, after elected, vote any way they choose.  The implementation of a direct democracy was considered impractical, or not possible, on a large scale, but now with the advent of computer and Internet technology it is feasible.
Discussion 2.2:
U2D2
Describe the current structure of the school or other organization with which you are most familiar, and discuss why the emerging issues you have identified in Discussion 2.1 will become your organization's greatest challenges (individual post).
One challenge in the implementation of a direct democracy is the method or curriculum for dispensing information in cultural institutions such as schools.
Following is a possible curriculum for the implementation of direct democracy:
The social studies and political science classes would introduce, early in the development of the curriculum -- during the elementary school years -- the first concepts of democracy as government based on the will of and for the good of the people or society.  The curriculum would eventually include the history of democracy beginning with ancient Athens, Greece (and before) and its present forms of use today in various countries and institutions and studies of its various methods of execution.  Also included in the course curriculum would be computer skills courses since thorough knowledge of computer and Internet usage would be needed to implement and sustain the continuing use of a direct democracy.  Once the system is establablished and the procedures for its execution are in place and all of the necessary legislation is passed to secure its structure, procedural content, and continuing existence, the voters, or potential voters (who perhaps would require secured registration, training, and perhaps certification to qualify to vote), would learn how to research and read about issues to be voted on at the local, state, and national levels.  Computer tutorials could also be developed to teach the learners how this is done and even provide some practice voting sessions and hypothetical situations to which they can respond.
After, and even before and during the discussion and implementation of a direct democracy system, the most important aspect of creating a system whereby the information and training necessary to maintain a direct democracy is to establish a curriculum, including the methods, institutions, and locations to dispense that information.  The information could be dispensed in schools, both public and private, in home schooling situations, on the Internet, in books and magazines, and through commercial, governmental, and community organizations.  The most wide-ranging method of disseminating this information would be through the public school system and colleges and universities.
The information could begin at home with the parents reading to their children with early learner books. The curriculum could begin with the pre-kindergarten students by having the students vote for what they like by placing balls into baskets and by showing flash cards showing the most basic ideas involved about the concept of democracy.  The curriculum could progress up through the school system through the school system: through kindergarten, elementary, junior high school, high school, then through colleges and universities as well as specialized schools, post-secondary institutions, and other forms of adult education.
Richard
--
U2D1 Comment to Greg
I taught English to college students in China (Xi'an) and in Turkey (Istanbul), and though the cultures were different, it is the level I enjoyed being involved with the most and want to continue with later.  The classes I have now, though I enjoy some aspects of them, are just what was available at the time I was looking here in Taiwan.  I'm putting a lot of effort into the classes but I'll be glad when they're over.  Some people would prefer teaching children so there I think there will always be a supply of teachers for them.  I think you might enjoy the college level but some of that depends on the subject being taught and the interest level of the students (and with college level the interest level is generally high whereas that is not always the case with children).
Richard
--
U2D1 response to Carolyn
Carolyn:  
Though the process can begin in part before that time, the plan I am thinking of might take a generation of time to fully implement (and then it would continue to grow and evolve beyond that) which sounds like a long time compared to human life span but is in fact a short time in historical perspective (and unnoticeable in the scale of an astronomical or a geological timeline). For now, this method can be done in conjunction with traditional paper ballots but in a generation of time people will be as familiar computers and Internet technology as your father is now with telephones (or typewriters and vinyl records -- remember those?).
Concerning how to train the public and inform them on the issues to be voted on,  I'll include some of those ideas in a future posting. 
Richard
--
U2D2 response to Howard
Howard,  I am writing up a curriculum and scenario with some details of what actually would occur within the school(s) to implement this concept and I will post it later.
Richard
---
Howard,
This is a possible curriculum for introducing the concept of direct democracy through the educational system.  Later I can develop each yearly level into more detailed curricula or syllabi.
A CURRICULUM for the implementation of direct democracy:
The social studies and political science classes would introduce, early in the development of the curriculum -- during the elementary school years -- the first concepts of democracy as government based on the will of and for the good of the people or society.  The curriculum would eventually include the history of democracy beginning with ancient Athens, Greece (and before) and its present forms of use today in various countries and institutions and studies of its various methods of execution.  Also included in the course curriculum would be computer skills courses since thorough knowledge of computer and Internet usage would be needed to implement and sustain the continuing use of a direct democracy.  Once the system is establablished and the procedures for its execution are in place and all of the necessary legislation is passed to secure its structure, procedural content, and continuing existence, the voters, or potential voters (who perhaps would require secured registration, training, and perhaps certification to qualify to vote), would learn how to research and read about issues to be voted on at the local, state, and national levels.  Computer tutorials could also be developed to teach the learners how this is done and even provide some practice voting sessions and hypothetical situations to which they can respond.
After, and even before and during the discussion and implementation of a direct democracy system, the most important aspect of creating a system whereby the information and training necessary to maintain a direct democracy is to establish a curriculum, including the methods, institutions, and locations to dispense that information.  The information could be dispensed in schools, both public and private, in home schooling situations, on the Internet, in books and magazines, and through commercial, governmental, and community organizations.  The most wide-ranging method of disseminating this information would be through the public school system and colleges and universities.
The information could begin at home with the parents reading to their children with early learner books. The curriculum could begin with the pre-kindergarten students by having the students vote for what they like by placing balls into baskets and by showing flash cards showing the most basic ideas involved about the concept of democracy.  The curriculum could progress up through the school system through the school system: through kindergarten, elementary, junior high school, high school, then through colleges and universities as well as specialized schools, post-secondary institutions, and other forms of adult education.
---
Howard,
This is a possible curriculum for introducing the concept of direct democracy through the educational system.  Later I can develop each yearly level into more detailed curricula or syllabi.
---
Following is a possible curriculum that could be revised, amended, and expanded to accommodate changing instructional requirements and changing new technology as well as changing and evolving informational content:
Pre-kindergarten:   Flash cards with pictures depicting basic concepts and people and places associated with democracy.  Voting by raising hands, clapping, shouting, or placing balls in a basket to show what they like as shown from pictures of the objects (such as apples, cake, hamburgers, lemons, music, etc.) 
Kindergarten:     Vote by placing softball size balls in a container.  Flash cards with pictures and words of basic concepts of democracy.
First grade:     Vote by placing ping pong balls in a container. Vote by writing  letters.  Flash cards with words of leaders of history, places and events associated with democracy.  Elect students for class duties for each student such as erasing the board, closing the windows, turning off lights, sweeping, etc.  These duties can be rotated monthly.
Second grade:  Vote by writing letters, numbers, and then names.
Third grade:  Vote by writing names of the students and of objects voted on.  For instance, for the question What do you like? the students write what they like such as "ice cream", etc.  Eventually, sentences are used.
Fourth grade:  Vote for class officers and class duties. Students write sentences on what they want to vote for and why.  Read political news for children in Weekly Reader, Yahoo Kids' page, etc.  Draw pictures and write paragraphs about democracy in the U.S.
Fifth grade:  Vote for class officers and class duties.  Voting by printed forms or writing names of people or objects voted on.  Introduction of the early history of democracy, around 500B.C. in Athens, Greece. Draw pictures about fora in ancient Greece.  Read Political news in Weekly Reader, Yahoo Kids' news, some newspapers and read about the history and practices of democracy in the students' social studies text books.
Sixth grade:   Vote for class officers with ballots.  Introduction to computers, software, using the Internet for searching and researching information, introduction to Internet for voting.  Write essays and draw pictures about democracy, history related to democracy, and political topics in the U.S. and the world.
Seventh grade:  Vote for class officers and duties with computer and Internet technology.  Study issues to be voted on. Vote for issues of the past.  Vote for some current issues. Write essays on democracy, history, political topics, current invents, and new ideas of how society should be constructed.  Read the Declaration of Independence and a summarized version of the United States Constitution.  Memorize some quotations associated with democracy.
Eighth grade: Polical Science and History readings and discussions about direct democracy.  Magazine articles, newspaper articles, and Internet searches about direct democracy.  Find an international pen pal to discuss direct democracy with via the Internet.
Ninth grade:  High school clubs established: Democracy Club; Political Science Club; Political Philosophy; clubs for Democrats, Republicans, Green Party, Independents, etc. Develop Internet surveys to find public opinion on various topics.  Find books and articles about direct democracy and write reports on them.
Tenth grade:   Civics discussion of the responsibilities of the voting citizens.  U. S. History and Democracy. U.S. Constitution, Declaration of Independence. Terminology relevant to democracy explored, direct democracy explained, duties and responsibilities of the voters. Computer voting Tutorial I.
Eleventh grade:   Learn to vote via the computer and Internet. World History of Democracy. Discussion and essays about forms of government throughout history. Continue corresponding with your international pen pal and ask your pen pal to find an additional join your correspondence group to have three way discussions.   Find one additional penpal to correspond with via the Internet and discuss all current event topics including direct democracy.   Summarized readings of Plato's Republic and the Politics by Aristotle.  Read and write essays on Democracy and Education by John Dewey and the Social Contract by Jean Jacques Rousseau.   Computer voting Tutorial II.
Twelfth grade:  Vote via the Internet. Vote on current and historical national and international issues.  Direct democracy procedures examined, explained, discussed.  Political Philosophy and duties of and preparation for the voting public. Discussions comparing representative and direct democracy, totalitarianism, Marxism, capitalism, and socialism.  Read and write essays on:  Direct Democracy: The Politics of Initiative, Referendum, and Recall by Thomas Cronin;  Direct Democracy in Switzerland by Gregory Fossedal;  Elections in Cyberspace by Anthony Corrado and Charles Firestone and more essays on Democracy and Education by John Dewey.  Computer Voting Tutorial III.
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Online tutorials:
The history of democracy
The philosophy of democracy
Glossary of terminology related to democracy and government
Naigating the computer and Internet for online voting
Computer Voting Tutorial I, II, III
Voting on Referendums, Initiatives, Elections for representatives, and Recalls
Preparation for certificate for a voting member of the Public Assembly
Writing and submitting legislation
Links, resources, publications, and organizations concerning direct democracy
Technical skills for the use of the computer and the Internet related to direct democracy

Below are listed university, post-secondary, adult, online courses, some of which are required, in addition to taking the certificate exams, to become a voting member of the (newly created) public legislature or Public Assembly.  One certificate is for the local level, one for the state level, and one for the national level (laws and and an amendment would need to be enacted to create such a voting body).  The certificate would require at least a high school education or a recognized equivalent, for the person to be a registered voter,  All registered voters are able to vote in initiatives, referendums, elections, and recalls but the Public Legislature would require a licensed certificate, similar to obtaining a driver's license or a specialist's license, renewable periodically with minor exams, to become a non-elected member of the Third House of Congress, which will count for 1/3 of the votes of the United States Congress.
University, college, online, and adult courses (with majors in political science with an emphasis on direct democracy and related subjects, some required for a voting certificate):
The growth and development of direct democracy
Writing and submitting legislatives bills for a direct democracy
Topics covered in the voting certificate exams
Designing instructional material for direct democracy
The procedures for voting in a direct democracy
Political philosophy and direct democracy
The use of direct democracy in Switzerland
Procedures and precedents for amending the U.S.Constitution
The world history and use of direct democracy
The use of direct democracy in governments and organizations worldwide
Referendum, Intiative, Election, and Recall
Methods of informing the public on legislative and di d issues
Security issues of online voting
The governmental structure for direct democracy
Theories and use of democracy
University, advanced and adult learner reading list for courses in direct democracy:
Adult Education for Social Change: From Center Stage to the Wings and Back Again (1996) by Thomas Heaney.
The Americans: The Democratic Experience (1974) by Boorstin, Daniel J. Boorstin.
America's Crisis: The Direct Democracy and Direct Education Solution (2000) by D. B. Jeffs and V. Hugo.
Aristotle and Xenophon on Democracy and Oligarchy (1975) by J. M. Moore.
Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project (2001) by the California Institute of Technology and The Massachusetts Institute of Technology Corporation.
Citizens As Legislators: Direct Democracy in the United States (1998) by Bowler, S., Donovan, T. & Tolbert, C.
Civic Participation and Community Action Sourcebook: A Resource for Adult Educators by A. Nash.
Collected Writings of Thomas Jefferson.
A Constitution of Direct Democracy : Pure Democracy and the Governance of the Future ~ Locally and Globally (2000) by Michael Noah Mautner.
The Cultural Creatives: How 50 Million People are Changing the World (2000) by S.R. Anderson & P. Ray.
The Communicative Ethics Controversy (1990) by S. Benhabib and F. Dallmayr.
Democracy: Real and Ideal, Discourse Ethics and Radical Politics (1999) by Ricardo Blaug.
Demanding Choices: Opinion, Voting, and Direct Democracy (2001) by Bowler, S, & Donovan, T.
Democracy and Education: An Introduction to the Philosophy of Education (1997) by John Dewey.
Democracy and Education and Prospects for Democracy (1994) by N. Chomsky.
Democracy, Citizenship and the Global City (2000) by E. F. Isin.
Democracy in America (2000) by Alexis de Tocqueville. 
Democracy in the Digital Age : Challenges to Political Life in Cyberspace (2000) by Anthony G. Wilhelm.
Developing e-Citizens and e-Consumers, an Irish e-Commerce Case Study (2001) by John MacNamara.
Direct Democracy: The Politics of Initiative, Referendum & Recall (1999) by Thomas E. Cronin. 
Direct Democracy in Switzerland (2002) by Gregory A. Fossedal.
Direct Democracy or Representative Government?: Dispelling the Populist Myth (2000) by John Haskell.
The Economist: A better way to vote: Why letting the people themselves take the decisions is the logical next step for the West (1993) by Brian Needham.
Electronic Democracy: Using the Internet to Transform American Politics (2002) by Browning, G. & Powell, A.C.
Electronic Media and Technoculture (2000) by John Thornton Caldwell.
E-Democracy, E-Governance, and Public Net-Work (2003) by Steven Clift.
Elections in Cyberspace:  Toward a New Era in American Politics (1997) A. Corrado & C.M. Firestone.
E-democracy in Practice: Swedish Experiences of a New Political Tool (2001) by T. Rosen.
Electronic Voting: Benefits and Risks (2002) by Russell Smith.
Electronic Voting -- Evaluating the Threat (1993) by M. I. Shamos.
Essay Concerning Human Understanding and Two Treatises of Government by John Locke.
E-topia (2000) by William J. Mitchell.
The Examined Life (2000) by Stanley Rosen.
The Future of Teledemocracy (2000) by T. Becker & C.D. Slaton.
The Handbook of Qualitative Research (2000) by J. Frow & M. Morris, M. (2000).  
Leviathan (1998) by Thomas Hobbes.
Megatrends 2000 (1996) by J. Naisbitt and Aburdene P.
The New Challenge of Direct Democracy (1997) by Ian Budge.
New Schools for a New Century (1997) by Diane Ravitch and Joseph P. Viteritti.
Political Parties and Constitutional Government: Remaking American Democracy (1999) by S. M. Milkis. 
The Prince by Niccolo Machiavelli.
Republic (1998) by Plato.
Rethinking Democracy and Education: Towards an Education of Deliberative Citizens (2000) by T. Englund.
The Social Contract by Jean-Jacques Rousseau.
The Spirit of Laws by Montesquieu.
Stealing the Initiative: How State Government Responds to Direct Democracy (2000) by E. R. Gerber, A. Lupia, M. D. McCubbins & D. R. Kiewiet.
Technoscience and Cyberculture (1996) by S. Aronowitz, B. Martinsons, M. Menser, and J. Rich.
The Third Wave (1984) by Alvin Toffler.
United States Constitution, the Declaration of Independence, the Federalist Papers.
Virtual Environmental Citizenship: Web-Based Public Participation in Rulemaking in the U.S. (2003) by Schlosberg, D. 
The World in 2020: Power, Culture, and Prosperity (1994) by Hamish McRae.
Conclusion:

Democracy was discussed by Socrates and written about by Plato in Republic, Aristotle in Politics, Machiavelli in The Prince, Locke in Essay Concerning Human Understanding and Two Treatises of Government, Montesquieu in The Spirit of Laws, Hobbes in Leviathan, Rousseau in The Social Contract, and Thomas Jefferson in his writings. Democracy was first used in Athens, Greece before 500 B.C., where each citizen voted directly on all legislative issues, thereby being a true democracy. Direct participatory democracy was considered impractical before now, primarily because there was no technology to supply it. Now, with computer and Internet technology, there is.

Computer and Internet technology can supply the forum for the voting of citizens to occur and schools and community and governmental organizations can supply the knowledge, information, and training for the implementation and continuing use of a direct democracy.

Appendix:

A Proposal for Creating the Third House of Congress: the Public Assembly
for the Creation of a National Democracy in the United States of America
R. Bloodworth

Phase 1  (3 to 10 years):

Debate and Introduction to the Concept
Discussions and committees formed
Brain storming and think tank groups developed
Petitions and letters, email, talk shows, TV, radio campaigns
Public education of the concept
Readings and discussions in schools and universities about democracy
Concepts related to direct democracy discussed and read about in schools
Writers and Artists commissioned
Software conceptualizing
Books and magazine articles are printed on the subject
Funding and economic issues are discussed
Funds raised
A suggestion hotline is established
An official website is created

Phase 2  (2 years):

Organizing and structuring of the voting methods and procedures
Curriculum developed for public schools and universities
Development of the Government Structure
Legal Documents developed
Constitutional amendment first draft written
various committees appointed
Local referendums held

Phase 3  (3 years):

All of the above activities continue (website, etc.)
Trial period when the procedures are developed, refined and the first results used
as an opinion polling collection device.
Educating the public on the procedures involved
Curriculum about direct democracy initiated for public schools and universities
First trials are done locally, first city, then county, then state, then national levels
During this period suggestions and changes are made
Software is developed
Security issues addressed
Computer and software bugs are worked out
Initial voting centers are established, these can be adjacent to post offices
Paricipants (intial voters) are assigned temporary voter registration numbers and
passwords, etc. chosen
The voter registration numbers are assigned through the voting centers in a way
similar to registering to vote and passwords are chosen.
(Voters are given up to 3 days to “edit or change” their submissions)

Phase 4  (3 years):

Voting Centers are established nationwide
Voter registration numbers are established partly containing
a social security number.
Voting Centers have the bills and plans to be voted on in booklet form
and posted on the walls and these bills and plans are also
available online for perusal and study.
The voter registration numbers are assigned through the voting
centers in a way similar to registering to vote and
passwords are chosen.
(Voters are given up to 3 days to “edit or
change” their submissions)
The opinion poll collection system continues using the online
voting system
Strict felony laws against Internet abuse or direct voting fraud
with severe penalties and punishments are passed.

Phase 5  (Continuing):

Voters are able to connect to the voting system via the
Internet with their own computers, or continue to vote through
the Voting Centers, and become voting members of the
3rd House of Congress, the Public Assembly according
to U.S. federal law and also of state, county, and city
governments as laws of each state allow.
In the future, computers will be as standard as telephones and everyone
with a telephone will have a computer and the United States
government will become a truly participatory and
democratic government.

DEMOCRACY BIBLIOGRAPHY
Aronowitz, S., Martinsons, B., Menser, M., and Rich, J. (1996). Technoscience and Cyberculture.  New York and London: Routledge.

Becker, T. & Slaton, C.D.  (2000).  The Future of Teledemocracy.  Praeger Publishers.

Benhabib, S., and Dallmayr, F. (1990). The Communicative Ethics Controversy. London: The MIT Press.

Blaug, Ricardo (1999). Democracy: Real and Ideal, Discourse Ethics and Radical Politics. Albany, New York: State University of New York Press.

Bowler, S., Donovan, T. & Tolbert, C. (1998).  Citizens As Legislators: Direct Democracy in the United States.  Columbus, OH: Ohio State University Press.

Bowler, S, & Donovan, T. (2001).   Demanding Choices: Opinion, Voting, and Direct Democracy.  Ann Arbour, MI: University of Michigan Press.

Browning, G. & Powell, A.C. (2002).  Electronic Democracy: Using the Internet to Transform American Politics. Cyberage Books.

Budge, Ian. (1997).   The New Challenge of Direct Democracy.  Polity Press. 

Bushell, Sue. (2003).  Where to Now for E-Voting?  Retrieved January. 24, 2004 from:  http://www.cio.com.au/index.php?id=405941257&eid=-601

Caldwell, John Thornton. (2000). Electronic Media and Technoculture. New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press.

Castells. Information Technology, Globalization, and Social Development

Chomsky, N. (1994). Democracy and Education. Retrieved January 24, 2004 from  http://www.zmag.org/chomsky/talks/9410-education.html

Corrado, A. & Firestone, C.M.  (1997).  Elections in Cyberspace:  Toward a New Era in American Politics.   Aspen, CO: Aspen Institute Publications Office.

Cronin, Thomas E. (1999).  Direct Democracy: The Politics of Initiative, Referendum & Recall. Cambridge, MA and London: Harvard University Press.
Becker, T. & Slaton, C.D.  (2000).  The Future of Teledemocracy.  New York: Praeger Publishers.

Dewey, John.  (1997).  Democracy and Education: An Introduction to the Philosophy of Education.  New York: Free Press, Simon & Schuster.

Fossedal, Gregory A. (2002).  Direct Democracy in Switzerland. Transaction Publications.
  
Gerber, E. R., Lupia, A., McCubbins, M.D. & Kiewiet, D.R. (2000). Stealing the Initiative: How State Government Responds to Direct Democracy. Prentice Hall.

Haskell, John. (2000).  Direct Democracy or Representative Government?: Dispelling the Populist Myth.  Boulder, CO: Westview Press.

Heaney, Thomas. Adult Education for Social Change: From Center Stage to the Wings and Back Again.  (1996).  Retrieved on January 15, 2004 from  http://www.nl.edu/ace/Resources/Documents/ERIC1.html

Isin, Engin F. (2000).  Democracy, Citizenship and the Global City.  New York and London: Routledge.

Lebihan, Rachel. (2003). Arm twisting to hinder home electronic voting.  Retrieved on October 24, 2003 from http://www.zdnet.com.au/newstech/communications/story/0,2000048620,20265293,00.htm

MacNamara, O'Donnell.  Developing e-Citizens and e-Consumers, an Irish e-Commerce Case Study.   http://66.218.71.225/search/cache?p=The+E-citizen.+Instructional+Technology.,+Lee,+John+K.++&sub=Search&ei=UTF-8&url=fe_aPyZrSDAJ:www.efmd.be/learninggroups/chapter/eisb2001proceedings/pdfs/MacNamara%2520%2520O%27Donnell%2520.pdf 

Mautner, Michael Noah. (2000).  A Constitution of Direct Democracy : Pure Democracy and the Governance of the Future ~ Locally and Globally.  Legacy Books.

McRae, Hamish.  (1994).  The World in 2020: Power, Culture, and Prosperity.  Boston: Harvard Business School Press.

Mitchell, William J. (2000). E-topia. London: The MIT Press.
Patrick. (2003).  Recent Email from a Swiss Citizen.  Retrieved on January 17, 2004 from http://www.vote.org/swiss.htm

Plato. (1998). Republic. New York: Oxford University Press.

Rousseau, Jean-Jacques. (1999). The Social Contract. New York: Oxford University Press.

Salant, P. & Dillman, D.  (1994).  How to Conduct Your Own Survey.  New York:  John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Shamos, M.I.  (1993). Electronic Voting -- Evaluating the Threat.  Retrieved October 15, 2003 from  http://www.cpsr.org/conferences/cfp93/shamos.html
Smith, Russell. Electronic Voting: Benefits and Risks. (2002).  Retrieved October 24, 2003 from  http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/tandi/ti224.pdf Stirner, M. (1967). The False Principle of our Education, or, Humanism and Reform. Colorado Springs: Ralph Melees Publisher.
Wilhelm, Anthony G. (2000).  Democracy in the Digital Age : Challenges to Political Life in Cyberspace.  New York and London: Routledge.

DEMOCRACY WEBSITES:
http://www.developmentgateway.org/node/130619/?page_id=3647   (worldwide egovernment)                                                         
http://thomas.loc.gov/    ( the proceedings of the U.S. Congress and egovernment development)
http://egov.mit.gov.in/   (egovernment in India)
http://www.abc.net.au/ola/citizen/interdemoc/republic.htm
http://www.veritasdigital.com/ad_online/participatory.html
http://www.cpsu.org.uk/downloads/Modernising%20Background.pdf
http://www.publicus.net/ebook/
http://www.mail-archive.com/do-wire@tc.umn.edu/msg00045.html
http://policy.womenspace.ca/activities/brainstorm/policy/
http://www.analysphere.com/21Oct00/democracy.htm
http://www.statskontoret.se/gol-democracy/links/Popular/
http://www.itac.ca/client/ITAC/ITAC_UW_MainEngine.nsf/object/Imperative/$file/Agnew.pdf
http://www.one2one.co.nz/edemocracy.html
http://www.politics.tcd.ie/courses/undergrad/bcc/portal/egovernance.html
http://www.internetnz.net.nz/members/lists/isocnz-council-tidbits/2000-August/000012.html
http://www.flaxroots.net.nz/2000/papers/2000-PaulHughes.html
http://www.context.co.nz:8080/newsItems/viewDepartment$Participatory+Democracy
http://langue.hyper.chubu.ac.jp/jalt/pub/tlt/00/dec/scott.html
http://www.diverdiver.com/2003_03_07_diverdiver_archive.html
http://www.democracy-online.org/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A8287-2003Feb26
http://lists.essential.org/1995/info-policy-notes/msg00137.html
http://mondediplo.com/1998/12/03bensaid    (third way government)
http://www.jhu.edu/news_info/news/topic/politics.html    (online voting)
http://lone-eagles.com/democracy.htm  (list of related links and sources)
http://www.democracy-online.org/ (another list of related links and sources)
http://egov.mit.gov.in/  (egovernment development in India)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/ancient/greeks/greekdemocracy_01.shtml
http://www.bris.ac.uk/Depts/Philosophy/UG/ugunits0102/rousseau.html
http://www.wabash.edu/Rousseau/WorksonWeb.html
http://www.sosig.ac.uk/roads/subject-listing/World-cat/philpol.html
http://www.bu.edu/wcp/Papers/Poli/PoliFeld.htm
http://www.bu.edu/wcp/MainPoli.htm
http://www.bu.edu/wcp/Papers/Poli/PoliBuch.htm
http://oregonstate.edu/instruct/phl302/texts/locke/locke2/2nd-contents.html
http://www.sosig.ac.uk/roads/subject-listing/World-cat/demgovt.html
http://www.ancientworlds.net/aw/Post/32871
http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/class/300/300pix/300.ideas.html
http://teachers.ausd.net/antilla/philolinks.html
http://plato.stanford.edu
http://www.rep.routledge.com/index.html
http://www.bris.ac.uk/Depts/Philosophy/Dept/journals.html
http://www.bris.ac.uk/DeptsPhilosophy/Dept/Links.htm
http://www.bris.ac.uk/Depts/Philosophy/VL/index.html
http://web.mit.edu/polisci/www/research/goodness.html
http://etext.virginia.edu/jefferson/quotations/jeff0600.htm
http://www.anova.org/
http://www.developmentgateway.org/node/130619/?page_id=3647 
http://www.pdemokracie.ecn.cz/cs/doc/Statut-ang.doc
http://edemocracy.meetup.com/members/878
http://dmoz.org/Society/Politics/Democracy/Direct_Democracy/
http://www.dominion-web.com/directory/Top/Society/Politics/Democracy/Direct_Democracy
http://www.free-project.org/connect/links/
http://www.election.com/
http://www.votehere.net/
http://www.lib.ied.edu.hk/edarticle/civic.htm
http://edu.uwe.ac.uk/cred/bibliographic/papers.asp
http://www.egov.vic.gov.au/Research/ElectronicDemocracy/voting.htm
http://www.louiseferguson.com/resources/evoting.htm
http://web.mit.edu/voting/
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/nr/2001/voting2.html

--
U2D2 comment to Liston
I think the Army, or the military, can show to prospective members the advantages or possibilities of a military career with all of the diversity that the military entails.  I have said that the military is not only soldiers but is instead like a city with doctors, scientists, cooks, engineers, etc.  I think that it was discovered during the Vietnam War that a mandatory draft does not produce a high quality military whereas a voluntary system does.  Once the recruits are on board then the new technological methods of instruction and training can be employed.
Richard
--
U2D2 Comment to Cheryl
I am wondering why some of the students you referred to do not want to learn English if they are in Georgia, in the United States  (when I mentioned translators, I was referring to access to translators --or someone who spoke their language -- for consultation, etc., not one in every classroom).  Is their language Spanish (finding  Spanish translators there would not be so difficult to accomplish) or do you have other language speakers too?  
Richard
--
U2 Scuttlebutt
I am putting this in this area because this areas are probably not referred to in the course syllabus.
Although I know it is not scientific, in exploring the future one area that can not be overlooked is the paranormal. In Asia, on many street corners and in some areas entire sections of a street, there are fortune tellers who reveal or look into a person's future for a fee.  They can use tarot cards, palm reading, dreams, thoughts, and numerology to look into the future. Some use crystal balls, interpret prohets or psychics' (such as Nostradamas) enigmatic predictions, and some people might use witchcraft, Ouiji Boards, seances, etc.  People also refer to horoscopes to discover the future or make decisions about the future.  In the religious approach, people can also pray to have an affect on the future.  People can also use superstitious devices such as holding a lucking charm or not engaging in some potentially inauspicious superstitious activities. There are also more random approaches to affecting the future such as gambling or throwing dice.  And then there are weather forecasters.
Though many people do not believe in some of these activities, they do have an affect on the future since some people (even some presidents and world leaders) base some of their decisions about the future on these methods.
Other events or ideas that affect the future are: technology, social movements, religion, attitudes, wars, the economy, health or disease, environmental conditions, and natural and man-made conditions and catastrophes to name a few.
Richard
--
Millennium Technology Prize, Tim Berners-Lee
http://www.technologyawards.org/index.php?technologyawards=47853a0b861a0fd6ea984327de55c038&article_id=3932
---
U2D2 Comment to Lisa
I think your statement concerning your school "that we've long been aggressive in recruiting disabled students to our campus" is admirable.  Someone might be disabled in some areas, perhaps physically, yet they could excel in other areas and in those areas they can become valuable to themselves and to society.
Richard
---
Activity 3.1:

Read the NCREL document at Policy Issue Scanning-Emerging Policy Issues <http://www.ncrel.org/policy/emerg/over.htm>.

Activity 3.2:

In dyads, write a short paper (one to two pages) that summarizes your selected vignette. Include the following: (a) why you selected this particular vignette; (b) how this vignette relates to each of your environments; (c) a review of the questions presented in the vignette, as well as any question you might have added; (d) a review of the "provocative ideas," as well as additional ideas you might have identified in your Web search; (e) a review of how these "provocative ideas" relate to the environmental scans you carried out in Unit 2.
Discussion 3.1:

Post the paper that you did in Activity 3.2 and review a paper by another dyad. Examine the questions related to the vignette and the "provocative ideas" from the environmental scans. Do you think that the assumptions behind the questions and provocative ideas are acceptable or unwarranted? State the reasons for your conclusions. (1.b, 10.a, 10.c)
U3D1
In dyads, write a short paper (one to two pages) that summarizes your selected vignette. Include the following: (a) why you selected this particular vignette; (b) how this vignette relates to each of your environments; (c) a review of the questions presented in the vignette, as well as any question you might have added; (d) a review of the "provocative ideas," as well as additional ideas you might have identified in your Web search; (e) a review of how these "provocative ideas" relate to the environmental scans you carried out in Unit 2.
----
Posted U3D1
U3D1 Vignette about the Future

Write a short paper (one to two pages) that summarizes your selected vignette. Include the following: (a) why you selected this particular vignette; (b) how this vignette relates to each of your environments; (c) a review of the questions presented in the vignette, as well as any question you might have added; (d) a review of the "provocative ideas," as well as additional ideas you might have identified in your Web search; (e) a review of how these "provocative ideas" relate to the environmental scans you carried out in Unit 2.

Vignette in the Future

From The Revolution Begins with You:

This vignette imagines a rebel superintendent in Arizona in the year 2010 expressing her opinion and approach at a teachers' meeting:

"I'm glad to be here today," she begins. "I have the rules and regulations of this school district in my hand." She uncovers the object on the table and begins feeding the sheets into a paper shredder.

"Nothing will stand in the way of learning in this community," she continues. "Before you utter the first 'but,' know that I am prepared to march with you from the school board to the state capitol to Washington to get you what you need, and we will take parents and neighbors with us. If I could give you money today, I would. What I can give you is the authority to start a revolution in your classroom, in every classroom and school, in this community."

"Name a social challenge, and there is a corresponding expectation that public schools will respond: violence, teen pregnancy, public health issues, and religious intolerance. Public schools are asked to address all these controversial issues and more in an increasingly transparent world where all decisions are subject to public scrutiny".

I prefer the term and concept of evolution, rather than revolution, when changes are involved, especially social changes such as changes in the educational system. When change is to occur, a slow and natural growth is always the preferred method rather than a sudden, radical change of events and values, which usually only creates more problems of a different sort (witness the problems that are occurring now and that will continue to occur in Iraq, for example). To disagree with policies and react by destroying documents or, worse, by resorting to violence is usually an uncivilized way of expressing disagreement though at times there can be justification for civil disobedience as was the case with the Boston Tea Party or certain civil rights or anti-war protests especially during the 1960s. Also, sometimes expressing disagreement by following the prescribed channels of procedure is nonproductive or ineffective since those channels are often devised so that no or little change can actually take place and this is particularly true in highly bureaucratic and centralized societies. 

There is the possibility now for revolutionary educational reform to occur in Iraq but with the infrastructure and public morale being destroyed daily it would be almost impossible to implement anything such as a new educational system at the present time. First their immediate biological needs would have to be satisfied and the infrastructure built or rebuilt, developed, and continued and then the processes of the educational system could be attended to. All of these processes would need to be considered simultaneously, not one after the other, but the basic needs (in the order of most to least essential of Maslow's hiearchy of needs: physiological, safety, belonging, esteem, and self-actualization) are the most essential of the needs that should be filled. Students in the United States or developed countries might have a fear or dislike of some aspects of school or of taking tests and so on but in Iraq the students and teachers have the additional fear of school for the reason that a bomb could explode there (or anywhere). The expressed and hidden agenda of introducing a new educational system might be to promote democracy and equality in Iraq (which was originally Mesopotamia -- the Cradle of Civilization) and the Middle East but some Islamic fundamentalists think that the hidden agenda is to defeat Islam and replace it with Christianity, making the Iraq War (of 2002 to the present) to them a modern day Crusades. 

[In "Strategies of Change" Steven Vago states that planned social change, or social planning, consists of three components: targets, agents, and methods. Targets are the intended recipients of change, agents are the initiators or instigators of the change processes, and methods are how the goals of the change processes are implemented and, if successful, achieved. Change agents influence, promote, and implement innovation. Change methods comprise three broad categories according to Vago. The first are empirical-rational strategies which assume that people are rational and follow their mutually beneficial self-interests. The second are normative-reeducative strategies which state that people must change from antiquated ways to new ones. The third are power-coercive strategies which apply pressure using economic, moral, political, or even physical power or force. I think the empirical-rational should be the first attempted method in all cases with the others being resorted to only if it is determined that, for some reason, the empirical-rational is not effective in a particular situation. Of the three components of social change procedures -- targets, agents, and methods -- the issue of ethics is mostly concerned with the methods used by the agents to affect change in the target group. Effective planned change is change where the desired results of the change agents are achieved. I think in all cases the right and civilized way to affect change is through rational, non-violent solutions and that a violent approach always leads to disaster.] 

Customizing and Expanding Learning Opportunities:

The article mentions the trend toward standardization of curricula (but the customization of methods) and the availability of education to all and the assurance that every student is to receive at least a basic education and it mentions that "customized learning could be the counterrevolution to this current emphasis on standards-based education." The article recognizes a trend toward customized learning which can accommodate different rates and styles of student learning so that individualized learning plans can accommodate different rates and styles of student learning and the use of technology-enabled learning platforms, such as online courses, that connect students to options and resources beyond their classrooms.

The article includes a definition of the phrase "emerging issue" and how one is to scan for signs of an emerging issue so that a good seed can be grown and a bad seed can be either not planted or nipped even prior to becoming a bud. There is also a discussion as to how to initiate a strategic discussion about the future. 

In inititiating change, the article suggests to think about "customizing and expanding learning opportunities", of schools as living systems, and of schools within social and historical context. The article asks: "What signs of leadership do you already see emerging in response to these issues?" and "What conditions would favor this leadership flourishing?"

In responding to possible future scenarios, the article lists three main issues that have emerged:

Quality, Technology, and Equality. This involves supplying quality education to all and the use of technology, such as online courses, to achieve this.

Impacts of Choice in Education. This also is through the use of technology and access and students will in the future have a wide range of choices with which to achieve their own goals and ultimately their self-actualization.

Relation of Education to Social Change. This involves the general decentralization of society and of the educational system and the use of the educational system for the democratization of society and for positive social change and reform.

Provocative Ideas in the Present

As previously mentioned, technology and social movements are changing the world situation at a rapid pace in all aspects including educationally, socially, politically, environmentally, economically, and culturally. In the educational field, one example of the new uses of technology is the use of distance learning using online instruction via the Internet. In addition to technology, issues that impact the living and professional environments are the decentralization of all processes, globalization, and the democratization of society. In my idea of teaching and implementing the processes of direct democracy in the United States (as is practiced now in Switzerland, for example), the citizens would have a more direct affect on the legislative and governmental policies under which they must live and these changes would occur and progress at a natural pace.

References:

Vago, Steven. (1999). Strategies of Change. Chapter 9: Social Change. Pearson Educational, Inc.

North Central Regional Educational Laboratory. How to Identify and Explore Emerging Issues, Vignettes: The Revolution Begins with You. Retrieved April 18, 2004 from <http://www.ncrel.org/policy/emerg/over.htm> 

Related Websites (Webliography):

<http://www.cpre.org/Publications/rb05.pdf>
An article referring to decentralization in society and in education in particular from the Center for Policy Research in Education (CPRE).

<http://www.developmentgateway.org/node/130685/?>
This site involves E-government and E-democracy issues worldwide.

<http://www.enc.org/focus/partners/document.shtm?input=FOC-001876-index>
Online lesson plans, student activities, and teacher learning tools from the Eisenhower National Clearinghouse for Mathematics and Science Education (ENC).

<http://www.lancs.ac.uk/staff/trowler/links.htm>
A list of links, websites, and resources related to educational research provided by Lancaster University of the U.K.

<http://web.wested.org/online_pubs/po-00-03.pdf>
An article concerning educational funding from WestEd (wested.org).

Activity 3.3:

Search the Internet to identify and annotate two Web resources related to this unit. Read the Webliography Guidelines found in the MediaCenter for specific requirements.
Discussion 3.1:

Post the paper that you did in Activity 3.2 and review a paper by another dyad. Examine the questions related to the vignette and the "provocative ideas" from the environmental scans. Do you think that the assumptions behind the questions and provocative ideas are acceptable or unwarranted? State the reasons for your conclusions. (1.b, 10.a, 10.c)
---
U3 
How to Identify and Explore Emerging Issues
What is an emerging issue?
An emerging issue is a relatively unique and isolated event and/or development in the present that has the potential to develop into a high-impact issue in the future. While trends often involve a more widespread process that is usually growing or declining, evidence of an emerging issue can be the "tip of the iceberg" for an issue that will become increasingly important. One of the best examples in education in the 1990s was the surge of interest in school vouchers as an option for education reform. School vouchers went from being a pet theory of a handful of free-market economists, to experimental implementations in selected jurisdictions, to an option now considered in educational policy debates conducted at the highest levels of government. 
How do you scan for an emerging issue?
In order to find the early indicators for potential emerging issues, it is necessary to reach outward for new information that indicates changing conditions. The technique of environmental scanning is the process that enables anticipating future developments by identifying precursor examples occurring in the present. These precursors can be either isolated events and incidents that hint at an emerging issue or a more systematic set of events that have already evolved into a trend. Environmental scanning usually involves searching a variety of information sources to identify emerging developments of potential significance. Scanning can be informal, resembling general reading with a secondary purpose of identifying trends. Or it can be as formal as a well-funded trend-monitoring system with an ongoing network of people, a wide range of information resources, and regular analysis of publications. Scanning efforts are best done on a continuing basis to provide a "futures radar" that constantly identifies the precursors of wide-scale change. 
How can you use the tools on this Web site?
As IAF has collaborated with groups and communities about their future, it has found people reach powerful insights when they are invited to imagine the world they might create if they were unconstrained by current roles and resources. For that reason, IAF has created three Vignettes in the Future, one for each major force behind emerging issues. You can use these to start a powerful exploration of the future of education in your community. In a facilitated exploration, you could invite small groups to use the vignettes to describe what they would do in the depicted situations. Each vignette also contains questions to consider. It is likely that one of the vignettes will resonant with your current opportunities and challenges. The vignettes are a powerful tool for identifying additional emerging issues as well. As groups imagine the future they want to create, they can easily identify new issues and unintended consequences that could arise from any transformation of the existing system.
For each emerging issues area, Provocative Ideas in the Present also have been identified. These are evidence of the scope of change and potential controversy likely to emerge. You can use this starter set of provocative ideas to prompt people to identify additional emerging issues and their implications for your schools. These ideas also illustrate the kind of information you will want to identify in your own ongoing scan for emerging issues.
How can you launch a strategic conversation about the future?
To get started, ask and discuss these three questions:
Thinking about the schools you know best, what will be their greatest challenges in responding to emerging issues? As you discuss this, consider how schools will respond in each of the three areas of inquiry: 
•	Customizing and expanding learning opportunities 
•	Schools as living systems 
•	Schools in the mirror of social context 
What signs of leadership do you already see emerging in response to these issues? 
What conditions would favor this leadership flourishing?
Customizing and Expanding Learning Opportunities
At a time when standardized curriculum and testing are consuming significant resources in public education, other sectors of American society are responding to greater public demands for customization in products and services. The drive for standardization in public education arises from the following:
•	A real need to assure that every student receives at least a basic education. 
•	An understandably low public tolerance for experimenting with outcomes when students' future lives are at stake. 
Customized learning could be the counterrevolution to this current emphasis on standards-based education. Growing understanding of different learning styles, coupled with better technology tools to manage individual choices and outcomes, could help bring customization to public education. Vouchers, magnet schools, and charter schools can all be seen as forms of customization emerging from a parental desire for alternative experiences for their children. 
Customized learning can take many forms:
•	Individualized learning plans to accommodate different rates and styles of student learning. 
•	Technology-enabled learning platforms that connect students to options and resources beyond their classrooms. 
•	Assessments that measure student performance holistically. 
Education theorists who promote "learning to learn" over "learning a body of knowledge" may support customization and the freedom it extends to let the love of learning guide education choices. Individual projects and team learning take precedence over mastery of the material. When learning opportunities are expanded and customized, teachers become facilitators and guides in the learning process. 
"As we move more and more to performance-based assessments, how can we incorporate more real-life, real-time experiences into our accountability to state and national standards? I think this is a key piece that tends to be left outside the box, and it is high stakes. Learning tends to be as qualitative as it is quantitative, so we need to honor both sets of measures." "In the dynamic environments we call school, it is always the interaction rather than the lectures that motivate thinkers to grow. The medium is not the answer; it is only the tool or vehicle to a deeper understanding of learning." "As an advocate for organized education employees, I often find myself representing individuals who have crossed that line and asked the questions and found themselves in a confrontation with a narrowly focused administrator who cannot envision a world where we ask about content, community, and choice. Certainly children in early elementary are not capable of asking about their choices in the learning process. Many experienced educators would unfortunately support that thinking and thus restrict their colleagues from heading to a new paradigm. Overcoming this thinking is a tall order for our organizations." -Selected quotes from online forum participants	

U3  3 Vignettes:
Vignette in the Future
Motivated to Learn
This vignette captures the essence of the issues now surfacing in this area of inquiry into emerging issues. You are invited to leave behind the reality of your present situation and role, and enjoy the freedom of imagining the possibilities in 2010. Use this vignette and the questions that accompany it to start a powerful conversation in your community about the schools you prefer to create for your future. Share your dreams and ideas with others who share your readiness to collaborate to turn these dreams of what could be possible into solutions and strategies you can begin to adopt today. 
At first, Jack dreaded going to the meetings of the Chamber of Commerce study group on Innovation in Education 2010. He was a reluctant participant, a last-minute replacement of the original company representative, and he had little background in education issues. All he felt sure of was that something had to change in the education system-new workers needed longer periods for training, and many employees were finding it difficult to adapt to a fluid business environment that demanded a high degree of flexibility and the ability to make critical decisions in the face of uncertainty.
Jack began his work with the study group fairly low on the learning curve, initially overwhelmed by all the new concepts and conflicting theories of education and learning. His first glimmer of understanding came during a presentation by an education professor from a local college. The professor compared traditional schools to factories, making glib references to school bells as the equivalent of the factory whistle or framing activities such as student testing as forms of quality control. This metaphor gave Jack a way to apply his professional experiences-building information-age business organizations-to similar challenges facing education. Just as the industrial era of mass production had given way to more customized manufacturing, schools were facing the challenge of moving away from mass education toward customized learning.
From a business perspective, schools needed to find ways to develop the learning skills required by a 21st century workforce-particularly workers with an ability to innovate and who could learn how to learn. What remained unclear was how the educational systems could change to foster an environment of customized learning among students. Delving deeper into the issues created even more questions:
•	If more customized approaches to individual learning are adopted, how can achievement be measured in the absence of standardized instruction? 
•	Does measurement and assessment curb the intrinsic motivation to learn that is a basic aspect of lifelong learning? 
•	If measurement and assessment do curb the motivation to learn, then what is more important: learning how to learn or the ability to measure lessons learned? 
Provocative Ideas in the Present
Subject: Relational Accountability 
Excerpted from Wagner, T. (2001, December 5). The case for "new village" schools. Education Week, 21(14), 56, 42.
"Machine-scored tests do not measure the sophisticated skills of critical thinking, problem-solving, and so on that are essential for work and citizenship. The tests are also one-time events that do not give an accurate picture of an individual student's strengths and weaknesses, and the results usually cannot be used to diagnose students' educational needs. Nor do they provide educators with the knowledge needed to improve teaching. Finally, the greatly increased emphasis on high-stakes testing threatens to drive curiosity and love of learning as motivations for mastery out of the classroom. There's no time and too much fear for such 'leisure' pursuits."
"But what is the alternative? Thus far, many critics of standardized testing have been more concerned with seeking waivers than with describing an alternative system that would hold schools accountable for significant improvements in all students' learning."
"I've had the opportunity in my work to spend time in a number of new small public middle and high schools around the country that are developing a very different accountability system-one that I propose to call 'relational accountability.'"
Small learning communities have the potential to create educational accountability without relying on standardized testing.
Available online:
<http://www.edweek.org/ew/newstory.cfm?slug=14wagner.h21>
More information about New Village Schools is available online:
<http://www.newvillageschools.org>
Subject: Cooperative Learning
Excerpted from California Department of Education. (2002). Cooperative learning: Response to diversity. Retrieved on August 9, 2002, from: <http://www.cde.ca.gov/iasa/cooplrng2.html>.
"Cooperative learning represents a valuable strategy for helping students attain high academic standards (Kagen, 1993; Cohen, 1994). After nearly fifty years of research and scores of studies, there is strong agreement among researchers that cooperative methods can and usually do have positive effects on student achievement."
"Students do not know instinctively how to interact effectively with others. Social skills, like other skills, should be taught and reinforced. Teambuilding activities will help students get to know and trust one another. Other important social skills include accepting and supporting one another and resolving conflicts constructively."
Cooperative learning allows teams of students to direct the course of learning, with the teacher working as a coach and facilitator.
Available online:
<http://www.cde.ca.gov/iasa/cooplrng2.html>
Subject: Intrinsic and Extrinsic Motivations for Learning
Excerpted from Brandt, R. (1995, September). Punished by rewards? A conversation with Alfie Kohn. Educational Leadership, 53(1), 13-16.
"I sometimes talk about the three Cs of motivation. The first C is content. Far less interesting to me than whether a student has learned what he was supposed to is the question, 'Has the child been given something to do worth learning?' If you ask me what to do about a kid being 'off task'-one of our favorite buzzwords-my first response is going to be, 'What's the task?'"
"The second C is community: not only cooperative learning but helping kids feel part of a safe environment in which they feel free to ask for help, in which they come to care about one another as opposed to having to be manipulated to share or not be mean."
"The third C is choice: making sure that kids are asked to think about what they're doing and how and with whom and why. You know, kids learn to make good choices not by following directions but by making choices."
Available online:
<http://www.ascd.org/readingroom/edlead/9509/kohn.html>
Subject: New ICT Infrastructures and the Potential for Ubiquitous Learning
Excerpted from Goldberg, L. (2002, March 20). Our technology future. Education Week.
"In classrooms, the killer device will have built-in, high-speed wireless capabilities for handling not just simple data, but also graphics and video content.
"Users will be able to move freely within the school building, maintaining always-on connectivity to local network resources, the Internet, printer and file sharing, and e-mail access. Students' group work will be fostered from real-time, controlled connectivity among devices in the classroom. Teacher charts, diagrams, and notes may be integrated into the digital assignments passed to students. Student work will not be limited to written essays or quiz sheets, but may be in graphical or multimedia format where appropriate, and will be submitted electronically from school, home, or somewhere in between."
"Ubiquitous learning is student-centered and personalized, based on discovery activities. It is both collaborative and self-directed. In a ubiquitous model, students must become adept at information retrieval, management, and synthesis, from a variety of sources. Personal technology puts those resources within their reach, not just in the hands of the teacher, librarian, or lab aide. The ubiquitous model gives students the means of communicating and requires them to develop responsible 'netizenship,' with guidance from the instructor."
Available online:
<http://www.edweek.org/ew/newstory.cfm?slug=27goldberg.h21>
Schools as Living Systems
Corporations and institutions are transforming their organizational systems to make them more flexible and responsive to changing conditions. They are moving from functioning as rigid bureaucracies to envisioning themselves as living systems. They are creating fluid structures and systems of accountability that empower knowledge workers to do their best work. This often means defining the outcomes and removing the rules and procedures that may stand in the way of discovering better alternatives for new challenges. Such change frees people to self-organize within their organization and network with outside organizations to achieve results.
In the drive to transform a good organization to a great one, as Jim Collins (2002) posits in his bestseller Good to Great: Why Some Companies Make the Leap-and Others Don't, it is essential to "get the right people on the bus." Regardless of whether the economy is weak or strong, the war for talent continues as employers seek the right people who are essential to success. Good people always have choices.
The knowledge workers with the least choice in current society may be those working in public education. Federal, state, and local laws and policies, as well as public dictates, constrain the system and limit the decisions educators and school boards can make. 
They are stuck in the command and control structures of industrial-era organizations trying to respond to critical emerging issues such as the following:
•	Dealing with century-old and failing paradigms for financing education, which demand accountability without extending spending authority. 
•	Changing the role and scope of schools to become centers of lifelong learning for their communities. 
•	Recruiting talented individuals to reverse crisis-level educator shortages arising from low recruitment and retention as well as retirement and burnout. 
Historically, public schools have been organized into school systems; yet "system" can no longer evoke images of bureaucracy when living systems have the greatest capacity to meet the challenges the future holds. 
"The 'traditional accountability relationship' has always been about results, profit-at least in business. Only in a bureaucracy has this connection failed to exist-often by design. Restoring it in education is, in that light, a return to a more traditional position." "If districts give financial control to schools in expectation of enhanced learning (I assume), what defines the bargain? Bargains presume some equality of exchange. How is that equality to be measured in this instance? If we cannot agree to that, it would be foolhardy for districts to accept this 'bargain.'" -Selected quotes from online forum participants	
Vignette in the Future
The Revolution Begins with You
This vignette captures the essence of the issues now surfacing in this area of inquiry into emerging issues. You are invited to leave behind the reality of your present situation and role, and enjoy the freedom of imagining the possibilities in 2010. Use this vignette and the questions that accompany it to start a powerful conversation in your community about the schools you prefer to create for your future. Share your dreams and ideas with others who share your readiness to collaborate to turn these dreams of what could be possible into solutions and strategies you can begin to adopt today. 
You are attending your teacher inservice meeting to launch the 2010 school year. People are arriving with the weight of a dying town resting on their shoulders. The county's chief employer just announced plans to move manufacturing operations to Malaysia, lured by postwar economic incentives there. You are sitting with your friends Aurora and George, catching up on how Ramiro, Elham, and Maggie like their new jobs.
The new superintendent is rolling a draped object on a table onto the stage. The school board hired the hotshot superintendent from Arizona to reverse a five-year slide to the bottom in state testing. 
"I'm glad to be here today," she begins. "I have the rules and regulations of this school district in my hand." She uncovers the object on the table and begins feeding the sheets into a paper shredder.
"Nothing will stand in the way of learning in this community," she continues. "Before you utter the first 'but,' know that I am prepared to march with you from the school board to the state capitol to Washington to get you what you need, and we will take parents and neighbors with us. If I could give you money today, I would. What I can give you is the authority to start a revolution in your classroom, in every classroom and school, in this community."
Stunned, you turn to your friends, and all the old questions roll out in search of new answers:
•	What do schools owe their community? 
•	What should the community give its schools? 
•	How do we get the people in the classrooms, administrative offices, and elected positions to work together as if learning matters? 
Provocative Ideas in the Present
Subject: Linking Money and Accountability
Excerpted from WestEd. (2000, July). From equity to adequacy. West Ed Policy Brief. San Francisco: Author.
"In traditional accountability relationships, the state regulates input (e.g., textbooks, training programs, numbers of school hours and days), provides a politically determined amount of funding, and monitors district compliance. But when the focus of accountability shifts to results, roles change-dramatically."
"The corollary of transferring state spending authority to the district is for the district to give that authority to the school-the place where teaching and learning occur-in an analogous results-focused bargain."
Available online:
<http://web.wested.org/online_pubs/po-00-03.pdf>
Subject: Breaking the Bonds of Tradition
Excerpted from Center for Policy Research and Education. (1990). Decentralization and policy design. New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers-The State University of New Jersey.
This May 1990 analysis examines behaviors around school policy from the perspective of school choice, but it still hits the mark for any discussion about the capacity of schools to self-organize to achieve student outcomes.
"Research on school effectiveness tells us that school-level discretion and collegial determination of school policy are likely precursors to school improvement."
"… in states where waivers are offered to participants in pilot restructuring programs or where state agency personnel have urged broader use of waivers, local educators have rarely requested them. Perhaps local educators are more constrained by local interpretation than by state regulation; perhaps they mistrust state officials' promises to foreswear monitoring of waived rules; perhaps they ignore impeding rules in practice. Another possibility, however, is that constraint stems from the accumulated body of rules and regulations taken together or the mindset it creates. If so, waivers of single rules will not help. More sweeping approaches that offer freedom from entire sets of rules may offer greater promise. Furthermore, it is quite possible that change is more inhibited by tradition and habit than by regulation."
Available online:
<http://www.cpre.org/Publications/rb05.pdf>
Subject: Effective Teacher Retention Strategies
Excerpted from Hare, D., & Heap, J. (2001). Effective teacher recruitment and retention strategies in the Midwest: Who is making use of them? Naperville, IL: North Central Regional Educational Laboratory.
"Estimates suggest that approximately one-fourth of all beginning teachers leave the profession in the first five years, and those rates can climb to as much as 50 percent in high-poverty areas (Bandiera de Mello & Broughman, 1996; Merrow, 1999; Whitener, Gruber, Lynch, Tingos, & Fontelier, 1997)."
"The odds are not favorable that a school will see a significant return on efforts and money dedicated to recruiting, hiring, training, and supporting new teachers (Haselkorn & Fiedler, 1999)."
"A majority of participating superintendents in each of the seven NCREL states reported that 75 percent to 100 percent of the teachers leaving are 'highly effective' or 'effective' in the classroom. Such talented individuals have other options, and they appear to be exercising them at greater rates than less-effective teachers."
In this NCREL survey to identify effective retention strategies, "Three lower-cost strategies that improve the professionalism of teaching were rated as effective or more effective than strategies such as increasing teacher salaries. These strategies are involving teachers in decision making, implementing team or interdisciplinary teaching, and making scheduling changes to allow common planning time for teachers."
Available online:
<http://www.ncrel.org../pubs/html/strategy/intro.htm>
Subject: A Community Priority for Lifelong Learning
Excerpted from Pounders, B., Sawyer, S., & Loggins, V. (2001). Partnership for lifelong learning. ENC Focus 8(1), 45-47. Reproduced with permission of Eisenhower National Clearinghouse. Retrieved on August 9, 2002, from <http://www.enc.org/>.
"The Shoals, Alabama, Chamber of Commerce knows that education is a key factor for enhancing the quality of life for citizens. That is why it took the lead in forming an education committee to develop a plan for life-long learning in the region, a five-county area of northwest Alabama. The committee sought the help of teachers, school administrators, business owners, and students to create the Northwest Alabama Education Partnership (NWAEP)."
"The partnership currently has more than 1,300 volunteer commitments from more than 500 businesses and concerned individuals. Future goals are to build public awareness of educational services and to make life-long learning a cultural priority in the community."
Available online:
<http://www.enc.org/focus/partners/document.shtm?input=FOC-001876-index>
Subject: Integrating Incentives and Performance to Enhance Teaching Careers
Excerpted from Archer, J. (2001, April). Tomorrowland. Teacher Magazine.
"[The] school is one of five in Arizona that offer a glimpse of what tomorrow's careers in teaching might look like. The sites are the first in the country to pilot the Teacher Advancement Program, or TAP, which is designed to bolster student performance by creating new incentives and supports for teachers. An initiative of the Milken Family Foundation, it is founded on the principles of opportunity and accountability-and on the recognition that all teachers are not created equal. In fact, Camelview has three categories of educators: 'master teachers,' like Ong; 'mentor teachers,' who shoulder some extra responsibilities, such as planning professional-growth meetings (and annually receive an additional $3,000 to do so); and 'associate teachers,' who can tap into their colleagues' expertise."
"To attract talent to the classroom, TAP envisions even more teaching categories than are in place at Camelview. There would be part-time options for retired teachers and experts from other fields, such as an engineer who might teach one or two high school physics classes. Salary increases in all categories would be based on job reviews-carried out by peers and administrators-as well as on students' gains on standardized tests. Moving from one level to the next would depend less on years of experience and more on skills and abilities." 
Available online: http://www.edweek.org/ tm/tmstory.cfm ?slug=07milken.h12 <http://www.edweek.org/tm/tmstory.cfm?slug=07milken.h12>
Schools in the Mirror of Social Context
The 2001 Public Broadcasting Service (PBS) series School: The Story of American Public Education looked through the history of public schools to see clearly just how much schools have always operated in the mirror of social context and are likely to continue to do so. Whatever Americans hope for society, they assign to schools to deliver. When a new nation needed educated citizens, the public school system was created. At the turn of the 20th century, schools were expected to assimilate great waves of immigrants as Americans and transform farm workers into factory and technical workers needed for the industrial age. At the turn of the 21st century, schools are frequently asked to provide what parents and other institutions have not or can not. 
The changing face of the American population creates new challenges to incorporate different races, cultures, and beliefs into a functioning society. Can the schools take the lead in this? In a land that prides itself on opportunity, socioeconomic factors still create significant have/have-not gaps. Can public schools create equity in the face of persistent forces of income and racial segregation?
Name a social challenge, and there is a corresponding expectation that public schools will respond: violence, teen pregnancy, public health issues, and religious tolerance. Public schools are asked to address all these controversial issues and more in an increasingly transparent world where all decisions are subject to public scrutiny. 
"Speaking as a 15-year veteran principal of a school with student enrollment of 872, I find the character education programs are far reaching. That is to say, not only are the children exposed to the characteristics, so are the parents, teachers, staff members, board members, and the community. It brings everyone to the same page as to expectations and what the values of the school community are based on. In such an environment, learning becomes a natural or a given element of the school and home." "As I review the new No Child Left Behind Act and its requirements for poor-performing schools, it seems apparent to me that school districts will be forced to integrate schools by ability/socioeconomic status or face nearly impossible requirements. This is one of those 'unintended consequences' that systems thinkers speak of. Maybe not a bad idea! But we should also start thinking about the unintended consequences of carrying out such integration." "Given the limited resources (good teachers, facilities, etc.) of our school systems, perhaps we should better spend time thinking of how we can maximize these resources to meet the needs of all students without punishing the poor. Instead of trying to replicate one good teacher, why not use technology to enable that teacher to reach more students? Or move the teachers, not the students." -Selected quotes from online forum participants	
Vignette in the Future
It Takes A Village?
This vignette captures the essence of the issues now surfacing in this area of inquiry into emerging issues. You are invited to leave behind the reality of your present situation and role, and enjoy the freedom of imagining the possibilities in 2010. Use this vignette and the questions that accompany it to start a powerful conversation in your community about the schools you prefer to create for your future. Share your dreams and ideas with others who share your readiness to collaborate to turn these dreams of what could be possible into solutions and strategies you can begin to adopt today. 
Ethan faced the biggest challenge of his career-his boss had tasked him with developing an education policy for his upcoming run to become Bigville's next mayor. Ethan was told to create a policy that would have broad appeal. He began his task by developing a list of questions that could guide his thinking:
•	How could schools narrow the demographic and social divides of society? Would school integration based on income be a successful solution? 
•	If the primary purpose of schools is to produce good citizens and skilled workers, how should the entire education system be reframed by the now-emerging global society and information-age economy? 
•	How can public policy better equip parents-especially low-income/low-education households- to foster strong learning habits from birth to age 5? 
The answers to these questions depended on whom Ethan asked. Some people in the community felt that the education system just needed more resources and better management. Others thought the system needed a complete overhaul. Clearly, there would need to be some middle ground between incremental change and full-scale reform. It was up to him to find it.
Provocative Ideas in the Present
Subject: Integration by Income?
Excerpted from Richard, A. (2002, January 9). Cambridge becomes latest district to integrate by income. Education Week, 21(16), 11.
"The Cambridge, Mass., school system has joined a small but growing number of districts seeking to integrate schools on the basis of income rather than race-helping to expand what some experts see as a coming trend in American education."
"Research shows that family income is a better predictor of school success than race, proponents of integration by income note, while recent court decisions have ruled against the use of race as the primary factor in assigning students to schools."
Available online:
<http://www.edweek.org/ew/newstory.cfm?slug=16cambridge.h21>
Subject: Character Education Speaks to Intrinsic Motivation for Learning and Doing Right 
Adapted from Lickona T., Schaps, E., & Lewis, C. (2000). Eleven principles of effective character education. Washington, DC: The Character Education Partnership. 
As any educator knows, learning is much more than mastering knowledge or even learning to learn. Another key role schools play is in developing students as caring, responsible members of the school community, their local community, and society. The Character Education Partnership outlines 11 principles that demonstrate the integrative nature of the learning in an effective program. 
The Character Education Partnership says, "A comprehensive approach uses all aspects of schooling-the teacher's example, the discipline policy, the academic curriculum (including the drug, alcohol, and sex education curriculum), the instructional process, the assessment of learning, the management of the school environment, relationships with parents, sports and physical education programs and so on-as opportunities for character development."
An overview of the 11 principles (copyright © Character Education Partnership) is available online:
<http://www.character.org/principles/index.cgi> 
Subject: Gender Equity with a Twist
Taliaferro, L. (2001, June 17). Education gender gap leaving boys behind. The Journal News.
According to national statistics quoted in this Journal News story (serving Westchester, Rockland, and Putnam counties in New York), it's boys who are lagging behind on key measures of success from taking Advanced Placement courses and college-admission tests to actually completing college degrees. This is surprising, given the work that still remains to achieve employment equity. 
Is this a new gender gap that will continue growing over the next 10 years or an anomaly in the data that will not have much to do with men's opportunities in life? 
Available online:
<http://www.thejournalnews.com/gender/17gendermain/>
Subject: Improving Outcomes by Enhancing "Social Capital" in the Schools
Excerpted from Comer, J. (2001, April 23). Schools that develop children. The American Prospect, 12(7).
"Given the purpose of education-to prepare students to become successful workers, family members, and citizens in a democratic society-even many 'good' traditional schools, as measured by high test scores, are not doing their job adequately. But test scores alone are too narrow a measure. A good education should help students to solve problems encountered at work and in personal relationships, to take on the responsibility of caring for themselves and their families, to get along well in a variety of life settings, and to be motivated, contributing members of a democratic society. Such learning requires conditions that promote positive child-and-youth development."
"Not long ago I asked approximately 300 experienced teachers and administrators from across the country if they'd taken a child development course; about half had. But when I asked how many had taken a school-based, supervised course in applied child development, only seven hands remained up. This lack of training is why many educators can't discuss the underlying factors involved in a playground fight or how to create social and academic experiences that motivate learning by tapping into the developmental needs and information level of today's students. Even fewer could construct environments conducive to overcoming racial, ethnic, income, and gender barriers."
Available Online:
<http://www.prospect.org/print/V12/7/comer-j.html>
Subject: Racial Disparities in Zero Tolerance Policy Enforcement
Excerpted from Wald, J. (2001, August 29). The failure of zero tolerance. San Francisco: Salon Media Group.
"According to Schoolhouse Hype, a publication of the Justice Policy Institute, minority students in Maryland and Massachusetts are suspended and expelled at rates of two to three times that of whites. Recent studies conducted by local newspapers in Florida and Rhode Island found even wider racial disparities in suspension rates in those states."
"Because this data is often so sketchy and difficult to obtain, the reasons for these disparities are not clear. But Russ Skiba's research takes issue with the common argument that these inequities exist because black males commit more serious infractions. He found that minority students are, in fact, disciplined more frequently and severely for less serious, and more subjective, offenses, such as 'defiance of authority' or 'disrespect' than their white peers; categories that offer more leeway for prejudice and stereotyping to become factors."
Available online:
http://dir.salon.com/ mwt/feature/2001/ 08/29/zero_tolerance /index.html?pn=1 <http://dir.salon.com/mwt/feature/2001/08/29/zero_tolerance/index.html?pn=1>
About the 2002 NCREL Emerging Issues Scan
The purpose of this scan is to provide foresight to help public schools do two things: anticipate the challenges they will face in the future, and leverage new opportunities that will arise to create the most effective public school system. The report uses the future as a fresh frame of reference to discover emerging issues that could become priorities for educators between now and 2010. Leading-edge experts and provocative thinkers were brought together in an online forum to analyze the ideas out on the edge and to do the advance learning on behalf of education decision makers in the seven states NCREL serves.
Methodology
The Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF) conducted an initial scan of the previous NCREL emerging issues research, its own prior work for other education-related clients, and a literature scan to understand what issues are currently dominating public education. 
NCREL recruited provocative thinkers from its stakeholders to participate in a four-week online forum beginning February 19, 2002, to explore the three topic areas. Participants <online.htm> were selected from NCREL's constituent groups with representation from the seven-state region. The online forum operated as a Web-based, threaded-discussion forum hosted on a closed NCREL Web site. Participation in the discussion could occur when the participants' schedules permitted, as often as they desired, and from any Internet-accessible location they chose. Participants were advised to anticipate spending one hour a week during the four-week forum. NCREL and IAF sent periodic e-mail updates/reminders to participants to advise them of activity in the forum and how they might participate. All communications throughout this project were electronic, via either e-mail or the Web site. 
The online forum provided the two pathways, also made available in this resource, for exploring the future:
•	Vignettes in the Future. These brief stories captured the essence of the issues now surfacing in each of the areas of inquiry. The vignettes invited participants to leave behind the reality of their present situations and roles and enjoy the freedom of imagining the possibilities in 2010. Participants were asked to consider the questions, imagine what they would prefer to create in the future, and post their thoughts. Each vignette used a brief glimpse of a specific possible future for education as a catalyst for broader consideration of the issues facing education. Participants could frame the important issues facing education as a whole without being limited by taking a step back from the specific issues and controversies facing contemporary education. 
•	Provocative Ideas in the Present. In this space on the online forum, provocative ideas to consider, as well as Web links to full articles on these ideas, were introduced. Participants were invited to use this space in two ways: add their own recommendations for provocative ideas and resources, and respond to the issues raised by those resources. 
Summary of Online Discussion
During the ensuing online discussions, three broad issues emerged as the main areas around which participant comments tended to cluster:
•	Quality, Technology, and Equality. One component of this discussion was the potential of technology to allow educators to deliver high-quality education on an equal basis. Technology allows students to access instruction regardless of time and space. High-quality educational materials can be made available to students online, on demand. Textbooks could evolve into electronic texts that would be continuously updated and improved, and then printed out or downloaded by teachers, component by component, on an as-needed basis. However, it was mentioned that certain present-day assumptions about education would have to change before the full impact of technology in education would be felt. Among the concepts mentioned as impediments to full implementation of a high-technology-enhanced educational experience were these: the notion that learning depends on a teacher's physical presence in a classroom, and the idea that books are the primary conduit for the transmission and storage of high-quality knowledge. 
•	Impacts of Choice in Education. This discussion revolved around the impacts of greater parent and student choice in the selection of education offerings. High-quality online education was mentioned as a force that could potentially drain high-quality learners and resources out of struggling school districts. This raises the possibility that the most at-risk students may be left behind in the rush to integrate technology in education. However, it was mentioned that this problem could be alleviated if the concept of the "school district" were transformed by directly allocating financial resources to parents. In that way, all parents would have equal resources and equal opportunity to access high-quality online education or other more traditional educational modes. 
•	Relation of Education to Social Change. This discussion focused on whether improved outcomes in education are dependent on reforms and change in society, or whether improvements in the schools can be the catalyst for wider social changes. One question raised was the extent to which there is a common social vision for the allocation of educational resources. Currently, our tendency is to celebrate our uniqueness and diversity as a basis for personal identity and pride. Collectively rising above these differences may take longer than we all expect. In the meantime, education can perform an important initial function of bridging differences by emphasizing its role as a means for enhancing and developing the unique abilities of each individual. Other participants expanded upon this and addressed whether improvements in education would have to wait for reforms in society to remove obstacles to learning, or whether schools themselves had a role to play as catalysts for change. It was mentioned by one participant that providing a vision and standard of success in each school could make it possible to motivate even at-risk students and improve outcomes one school at a time. From this perspective, schools could play a role in addressing the ills in our society by starting from the bottom up with individual students. 
About the Research Partner
The Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF) guides associations, corporations, and governments to wisely choose and create the futures they prefer. Located in Alexandria, Virginia, this research institute conducts leading-edge futures research and provides techniques for organizational and social transformation that expand opportunities for future generations. Founded in 1977, IAF has worked with hundreds of nonprofit organizations and governments, including those advocating for education, health, environment, communities, and democracy. Through its for-profit subsidiary Alternative Futures Associates, the institute works with major corporations to accelerate their learning about the future and select business strategies to maximize their opportunities. For more information on IAF and its futures research, visit www.altfutures.com <http://www.altfutures.com>.
--
Howard,
This is a possible curriculum for introducing the concept of direct democracy through the educational system.  Later I can develop each yearly level into more detailed curricula or syllabi.
---
from Liston:
The ideas surrounding how people find ways to get the most out of their educational experience throughout their lives is an aspect of this vignette entitled, "Motivated to Learn" that I found interesting. As an adult learner myself, I still am intrigued with the idea that people try to find out what they need to know to be successful and then they go out and acquire that pool of knowledge using whatever resources are available to them through a variety of conduits. 

Such a scenario speaks to the idea of customizing educational experiences for the learner who comes to the experience with different sets of motivations, hopes, and aspirations. The vignette, "Motivated to Learn" was illustrative of this concept as it might be viewed by and individual who comes from the results oriented business world looking at how people to improve worker training and education. In the world today, there is undoubtedly continued escalation in both the growth and need for customized and ubiquitous learning opportunities in areas where employees need greater technical skills.

There is certainly a burgeoning need today within employment sectors for customized learning opportunities customized for workers who need new skills in an increasingly global economy. Technical, or knowledge-based, careers made up only 15% of the U.S. economy in 1968, compared to 70% today. Ninety percent of new jobs created today require a technical background (Foster, 2001).

Review of Questions Presented in Vignette 

Question: If more customized approaches to individual learning are adopted, how can achievement be measured in the absence of standardized instruction? 

The result of a 1997 study commissioned by the U.S. Department of Education, indicated that performance assessments are an important tool for determining if educational goals are being met in learners. The team engaged in the study examined the 
basic assumptions underlying assessment reform with the thought in mind that performance assessments will result in better teaching and learning and will raise student achievement (Black, 2003). The researchers identified five types of assessment tasks: 

* On-demand assignments that require students to respond in a short period of time, such as working with a small group to brainstorm a solution to a problem. 
* Extended assignments that give students out-of-class time to research a topic and figure out how to show their understanding of new information. 
* Demonstrations that allow students to present or exhibit and explain their work on a curriculum topic. 
* Portfolios that collect and organize students' performance tasks -- such as essays, drawings, and reports -- and show their learning progress. 
* Other tasks that students can choose to show their level of mastery of new concepts.

Assessments should be designed to validate the skill gained at the end of the program. The result therefore is that in customized learning scenarios, there should be greater emphasis placed on answering the question of whether or not the learner can 
effectively demonstrate mastery over the subject matter being taught. 

Question: Does measurement and assessment curb the intrinsic motivation to learn that is a basic aspect of lifelong learning? 

In and of themselves, measurement and assessment activities do not curb intrinsic motivation within the learner. In adult learners, an inherent principle of adragogy is that motivation is a result of a genuine desire on the part of the individual to gain mastery 
over the subject matter. In a larger sense within an overall educational context, measurement and assessment activities should be geared towards maintaining student interest and motivation. Properly done, assessment activities can help to promote 
motivation and sense of direction for online learners. This is where the idea of effective feedback comes into play. Effective feedback is described as: 1) Based on performance standards rather than on personal opinion. 2) Followed by new action. 3) 
Quantitative, since numerical feedback indicates small improvements that produce changes in learner performance in the long run. 4) Prompt, but not necessarily as soon as possible. 

Question: If measurement and assessment do curb the motivation to learn, then what is more important: learning how to learn or the ability to measure lessons learned?
In response to the question:  Does measurement and assessment curb the intrinsic motivation to learn that is a basic aspect of lifelong learning?
I think both extrinsic and intrinsic motivations are valid and effective methods of achieving educational goals but extrinsically obtained information is what can be assessed by external evaluators.  It is fine for people to receive much of their information on their own and have intrinsic motivation to obtain that sort of information but in an educational setting how can information that has been achieved through intrinsic motivation be assessed?  Someone could take level tests but then the level tests themselves become extrinsic factors in themselves.  So realistically speaking, though all kinds motivation for learning are commendable, education that is obtained as a result of extrinsic motivation is what can be assessed by educators.
--
In the previous Scuttlebutt area I mentioned the use of the supernatural for looking into the future.
Another method is speculation by futurologists.  Some of these are: John Naisbitt (Megatrends, Megatrends 2000, Megatrends Asia), Alvin Toffler (Future Shock, The Third Wave), and Hamish McRae (The World in 2020).
Also the contribution of science fiction writers, artists, and inventors should be mentioned.   Science fiction writers such as Jules Verne (television, submarines, space travel), H.G. Wells (social systems, beyond earth communication), Arthur Clarke (satellites), and Mary Shelly (organ transplants) all helped shape the present with their imagination.  Also,artists, inventors and imaginative geniuses such as Leonardo da Vinci (airplane, bicycle, etc.) and Thomas Edison (light bulb, phonograph, and motion picture film, cameras, and projectors, etc.) helped move society and technology towards the future as well.
---
Activity 4.1:

Read Chapters 3 & 4, "Futuring Tools and their Use" and "Trend Extrapolation," in Alexander and Serfass.

Activity 4.2:

Search the Internet to identify and annotate two Web resources related to trend extrapolation. (8.a, 8.b)

Activity 4.3:

Each member of the dyad will complete a trend map related to his or her organization. 

Identify five baseline trends related to your work in Units 2 and 3 that you believe will be most critical to the continued success of your organizations. The Trend Identification Worksheet on p. 53 will be helpful. Provide justification and/or underlying assumptions used for selecting these trends

Complete a trend map (see example on p. 51 of the text) for each dyad member's organization. 

Extrapolate trends five to ten years into the future. Extrapolation statements should be brief, describing the trends as they might appear five to ten years from now.

Analyze cause-effect relationships.
Discussion 4.1:

Dyads will post results of their trend extrapolation activity. This post will consist of: (a) the five trends each of you selected, along with a justification for the selection of these trends, (b) similarities/differences in the choices each of you made, (c) the extrapolation statements each dyad member arrived at and an analysis of cause and effect relationships.

Examine another dyad's posting. Analyze the justifications/underlying assumptions that were made in selecting baseline trends. Do you agree or disagree? Why? Support your ideas with citations from the literature. (1.b, 7.x)
--
Four criteria of functionality, simplicity, time-testedness, and interconnectivity are mentioned in the text for the seven futuring tools which are Trend Extrapolation, the Delphi Technique, Morphological Analysis, the Crawford Slip Method, Scenario Planning, Cross-Impact Analysis, and Futuring Trees.
Concerning trend extrapolation, several trends that affect society and educational systems come to mind.  Some of these trends are:
New technology -- Technology will continue to make the the people and machines of the world function faster and more efficiently but it also has the potential of making the world more dangerous.
Population growth -- one estimate is that the population will continue to increase at a rate of about one billion people every ten years making the population of 6 billion in the present grow to about 11 billion in the year 2050 and this will have an impact on all facets of society.
Decentralization  -- The processes of society are becoming decentralized and democratized.  This is now possible with new technology and besides making people able to communicate over great distances it also adds a level of security and strength to a population or nation since all of the people and resources are spread around a large area rather than all gathered together into one potential target area.
Globalization  -- Travel and communications technology are bringing the  world closer together and businesses and organizations are establishing their operations worldwide thus creating a blending of local and foreign (foreign to the local culture, that is) cultures into one new world culture.
Diversification of interests and populations  -- People now have access to a wide range of cultural interests, professions, hobbies, and educational opportunities in which they can engage.
Standardization of services -- In order to assure the above mentioned efficiency of technology, labor intensive processes will become more standardized
Richard
Reference: 
Alexander, A. & Serfass R.  (1999).  Futuring Tools for Strategic Quality Planning in Education. Milwaukee, Wisconsin: Quality Press.
--
to Liston:
Essentialism
--
u4 response to Howard
Richard, I have been thinking about the direction of your comments and your interest in direct democracy. One of the topics that you raised here is something you will certainly need to address as part of your vision -- the impact of or threat of terrorism on the process.  In your Trend Exploration you stated "the processes of society are becoming decentralized and democratized." What evidence can you offer to support this trend?
--
Henry Ford used the idea of an assembly line, called Fordism, where every worker was essentially equal but performed a specialized function in the production process and F.W. Taylor (1949) studied a lateral, rather than top-down, system of production, with labor being distributed in a lateral net-work rather than a hierarchy. 
A. Chandler's study "Strategy and Structure (1962) shed light on the American corporation, focusing on General Motors (headed by A. Sloan in the 1930s) and du Pont. Chandler analysed the defects of the centralised, functionally departmentalised structure and argued that the bigger a company grows, the more inefficient a hierarchy gets because the management can no longer deal with the increasing complexity of coordinating people. He concluded that decentralization will flourish, as it allows large companies to establish an organisational platform for better communication and co-ordination." (Dafermos, 2001).  As a result of this trend, responsibilities within a large organization will be distributed into a series of groups and sub-groups all the way "down" to the individual.
With computers, telephones, and other communication and travel technologies it is no longer necessary to put everyone in a company or organization in the same building or location thus physically decentralizing organizations. Relative security from terrorism is another justification for decentralization.  The events of September, 11, 2001 showed us that it is putting many people together in one spot creates a potential target for terrorists.  The same argument can be made concerning cities too so that populations will begin to span out all around they countyside thus providing that much more security against any sort of 9-11 attack.
Democratization occurs not only through the ballot box of politics but also in social attitudes and in the capitalization of a free market society where each consumer or potential customer "votes" for a particular product or service with his or her money.  Even China is becoming more economically privatized and capitalistic.
Concerning democratization, some, such as many people in the Asian countries, find some aspects of democracy (such as political campaigns) distasteful and undignified.  Also, I think some their thinking goes along the lines of: "You wouldn't want an untrained person to pilot your airplane or perform surgery on you, would you?"  So I think they think of people running the government as pilots of the "airplane" or ship of a nation and would not want untrained, unqualified people elected by the public running a government.   I think some areas of governmental policy need to be determined by experts (but how are those experts to be selected?) -- but elected legislators are not expert in all areas either.  I think some issues would need to be screened, examined, and written about by expert committees -- these are usually people university-educated in specificialized subjects -- and their policies voted on by a consortium of peers educated within that particular field but other issues can be decided on by the voting public and some issues by certified voters.  Guidelines would need to be established (ay, there's the rub) to determine into which categories the issues to be decided on are to be placed.

References:

Dafermos, G.  (2001).  Management and Virtual Decentralized Networks: The Linus Project.   Retrieved March 30, 2004 from http://www.firstmonday.dk/issues/issue6_11/dafermos/#d2
McRae, Hamish. (1994). The World in 2020. Boston: Harvard Business School Press.
Naisbitt, John. (1997). Megatrends Asia. New York: Touchstone.
Toffler, Alvin. (1980). The Third Wave.  New York: Bantam Books.
--
u4d1 comment to Greg
Your comments that trends come and go but some are here to stay made me think of the philosopy of Essentialism that we studied in the educational philosophy course which states that some trends, topics, or subjects are timeless and universal -- and are essential to learn -- and should always be covered in every person's education.
Richard
---
for Unit 5 discussion:
Abstract
This proposal is an action plan for direct democracy to be introduced and taught in Social
Studies and Political Science courses in educational, public, and online institutions. The initial introduction
to the concept would begin in kindergarten and the early grades of elementary school and then
incrementally more information would gradually be added to the knowledge base progressing through to
high school, and in post-secondary and adult learning environments, to prepare the learners to be
educated voters in a continuing and growing direct democracy.
4
Rationale
One problem with the educational system, and society in general, involves political philosophy.
If most societies are called democratic then many people hold the opinion that the people should be
allowed to govern by voting directly and democratically (as is done in Switzerland) on issues rather than
voting only for representatives. When educating post-secondary or adult students (or even students
beginning with the early years of kindergarten and then through high school, in preparation for their
becoming adults), how can the concepts of democracy be conveyed and transferred to the learners and
how can they become directly involved in the implementation of democratically determined plans? The
proposed project involves exploring what methods have been used previously to establish direct
democracies (which are defined as the public voting directly on issues rather than through elected
representatives who can, after being elected, vote any way they choose.) and to establish a curriculum
to teach the principles and techniques of direct democracy in schools, primarily through social studies
and political science classes. The process can involve obtaining ideas from social studies and political
science teacher in developing a curriculum. One approach could be to send an emailed questionnaire to
Social Studies and Political Science teachers in public and private schools who teach from kindergarten
to the twelfth grade levels and to those who teach in the post-secondary and adult education learning
environments. The questionnaire could contain closed and open ended questions in addition to a blank
suggestion space at the end of the questionnaire where the instructors can add any thoughts that they
may have on the subject.
---
Unit 5
Activity 5.1:

Read Chapter 5, "The Delphi Method" in Alexander and Serfass.

Activity 5.2:

Read Education Reporter: Using the Delphi Technique to Achieve Consensus (November, 1998) <http://www.eagleforum.org/educate/1998/nov98/focus.html> and assess the validity of the author's arguments.

Activity 5.3:

Search the Internet to identify and annotate two Web resources related to this unit. Read the Webliography Guidelines found in the MediaCenter for specific requirements.
Discussion 5.1:

Respond to a dyad that has posted an assessment that differs from yours. Dialogue with one another and try to determine the reasons for the differences
Discussion 5.2:

In dyads, propose and outline a Delphi study you could use to follow up on the trend extrapolation you developed in the previous unit. Examine the Delphi study of other dyads and help them improve their study.
u5d1  The Delphi Technique
The Delphi Technique alludes to somewhat to the issue of fortune telling that I referred to in a previous discussion area but in this case the fortune telling, or guessing, is done by panels of experts.  The term Delphi Technique alludes to the mythical (?) psychic forecaster of ancient Greece from the Greek mountain temple city of Delphi.  The difference is that the oracle there, during those times, obtained the information through divine connection or intropection whereas the expert panels derive their information through educated guessing and speculation.
The Delphi Technique could also be considered as similar to a jury in a court of law or a jury of judges in a juried event such as an art show or a sports event.  However, the difference is that a jury in a court of law is more or less a random collection of judges who are not specialists and who are not necessarily a jury of peers -- as they are often purported to be -- whereas a panels of experts are trained and experienced within a particular discipline or area of study.  The panel of experts can try to not only foresee the future but also can suggest guidelines to be used with which to arrive at a desired future goal and suggest ways of avoiding potential pitfalls.The Delphi procedure involves a series of discussions and questionnaires, some of which can be anonymous, to obtain information from which decisions are made, conclusions are drawn, and forecasts are developed.
My idea of proposing and developing a direct democracy system would involve continuous panels of experts and this could be considered a type of a Delphi method.  The previously mentioned extrapolated trends (new technology, population growth, decentralization,  globalization,  diversification of interests and populations, and standardization of services) would be incorporated into the future plan development process.  After, and even before and during the discussion and implementation of a direct democracy system, the most important aspect of creating a system, whereby the information and training necessary to maintain a direct democracy is realized, is to establish a curriculum -- including the methods, institutions, and locations -- to dispense that information. The information could be dispensed in schools, both public and private, in home schooling situations, on the Internet, in books and magazines, and through commercial, governmental, and community organizations. The most wide-ranging method of disseminating this information would be through the public school system and colleges and universities. The concept would involve exploring what methods have been used previously to establish direct democracies (which are defined as the public voting directly on issues rather than through elected representatives who can, after being elected, vote any way they choose.), the history of democracy beginning with ancient Greece, and establishing a curriculum to be used to teach the principles and techniques of direct democracy in schools -- primarily through social studies and political science classes.  This could be achieved through a series of discussions, panels, and questionnaires involving a wide variety of stake holders and educated experts within given fields.  The surveys and questionnaires could be given to the general public, politicians, and specialists within specified areas.  Concerning how to introduce, implement, develop, and sustain a direct democracy by utilizing the educational system, the process would involve obtaining ideas from social studies and political science teachers for developing a curriculum. One approach would be to send an emailed questionnaire to Social Studies and Political Science teachers in public and private schools who teach levels from kindergarten to the twelfth grade and to those who teach in the post-secondary and adult education learning environments. The questionnaire could contain closed-ended and open-ended questions in addition to a blank suggestion space at the end of the questionnaire where the instructors can add any thoughts that they may have on the subject.
As the concept of direct democracy develops, and as it comes into daily use, there would constantly be the need for the advice of expert opinion.  In areas of specialized knowledge, in medicine for example, governmental policies would need to be derived from experts within those areas and those ideas could be exchanged though the procedures of the Delphi Technique.
Purpose
Definition
Operational Characteristics
Structure
Examples
Process: 
The process could be used for each of the development and the maintenance of the system of direct democracy but the initial example of a survey of teachers is mentioned here:
Select a Team:  This would be a team of educators and government workers
Identify the Main Issue:  How to teach the history, concepts, and procedures of direct democracy in schools and alternative methods.
Develop a Questionnaire:  Suggestions for questions are submitted by a collection of authors.
Select a Panel of Experts:  A panel of governmental and educational experts selects the questions for the questionnaires. 
First-Round Survey and Tally:  These are collected from paper and emailed surveys
Second-Round Survey and Tally
Third-Round Survey and Tally
Interpret the Results: These are interpreted by the initial team, the panel of experts, and a third panel formed for the purpose of interpreting the results.

Reference: 
Alexander, A. & Serfass R.  (1999).  Futuring Tools for Strategic Quality Planning in Education. Milwaukee, Wisconsin: Quality Press.
Dillman, Don.  (2000).  Mail and Internet Surveys: The Tailored Designed Method.  New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Webliography:
How to Control People. (2004).  Retrieved on April 5, 2004 from  http://www.apfn.net/messageboard/01-18-01/mbs.cgi.720.html
Smyre, Rick. (2002).  Democracy in a Learning Mode. from the South Carolina Export Consortium.  Retrieved on April 5, 2004 from http://tartan.communitiesofthefuture.org/articles/cotf-plwb-11b.html
Workshop for the Delphi Technique.  (2004). Retrieved on April 5, 2004 from http://www.propertyrightsresearch.org/articles4/workshop_for_the_delphi_techniqu.htm
--
To Darla:
Darla,  I've amended my original submission to give more of the details of who would comprise the panel of experts and the various stages of the Delphi Technique.
Richard
--
To Carolyn:
As an answer to the question "When should the university develop a plan for the use of web-based learning by its students?"  I would say the answer is "now" if it has not already been done. (When you refer to "the" university, are you referring to a particular university or the basic university system?)  I think all universities are probably using some form of web-based learning such as online texts or schedules for labs, etc.  And many are using web-based or computer based techniques in conjunction with traditional classroom learning.
Richard
--
http://www.learn-usa.com/
--
Liston,
The use of web-based or computer-based instruction for all types of training including military training would have the advantage of being able to offer a standardized  curriculum which might not be as useful for the creative arts, for example, but would be a very useful tool for military training where standardized information and organizational solidity is essential.  Standardization is important in the sense that everyone is being exposed to the same information thus creating a united organizational purpose.  Also, it would cut back on the amount of personal (human) instruction required for the very basic courses or information thus freeing up instructional time for higher level endeavers and for other projects.
Richard

-- next scuttlebutt ---------------
In a previous Scuttlebutt area I mentioned the use of the supernatural for looking into the future.
Another method of exploring the future is speculation by futurologists.  Some of these are: John Naisbitt (Megatrends, Megatrends 2000, Megatrends Asia), Alvin Toffler (Future Shock, The Third Wave), and Hamish McRae (The World in 2020).
Also the contribution of science fiction writers, artists, and inventors should be mentioned.   Science fiction writers such as Jules Verne (television, submarines, space travel), H.G. Wells (social systems, beyond earth communication), Arthur Clarke (satellites), and Mary Shelly (organ transplants) all helped shape the present with their imagination.  Also,artists, inventors and imaginative geniuses such as Leonardo da Vinci (airplane, parachute, bicycle, etc.) and Thomas Edison (light bulb, phonograph, and motion picture film, cameras, and projectors, etc.) helped move society and technology towards the future as well.
Perhaps these could be considered as types of Scenario Planning.
Richard
---
Response to Howard:
Open-Ended Questions for Social Studies and Political Science Teachers:
The below are some sample questions are in the form of open-ended questions that can be
answered with essay type answers, I can add some more later:
How has direct democracy been practiced in other countries and institutions and how effective has it
been?
How can the educational system participate in the implementation of a direct democracy utilizing
Internet and computer technology?
How can direct democracy be introduced and taught in Social Studies and Political Science courses?
How can a constitutional amendment be proposed?
How can the reliability of Internet voting be assessed?
How can the privacy and security of voters be assured?
How can the public be informed of issues to be voted on?
How can the voters register their votes via the Internet or computer?
How can the public be made aware of the safety and limitations of direct democracy?
How can the public be made aware of the roles and duties of citizens in a democracy?
How can the public be made aware of the philosophy and history of democracy?

An example of how one of the sample questions could be answered:
-- How can a Constitutional amendment be proposed?
Constitutional amendments are permanent additions to the Constitution, though they can be
counter amended as was the case with the Prohibition amendment, that require a 2/3 vote from both
houses of the Congress and therefore very difficult to obtain. There have been twenty seven
Constitutional Amendments with the most recent being in 1992 which involved no Congressional self
salary increases while the legislators are in their term. The twelfth Amendment, concerning changing the
method of electing the president of the United States using the Electoral College, was added in 1803
after the first ten Amendments, the Bill of Rights, were added in 1791.  Emailed petitions could start the process and eventually public referendums could be held.

An Example of a Likert Scale Item Survey that could be Sent to
Social Studies and Political Science Teachers:
These closed-ended items can be responded to with linear scale responses [(1)strongly disagree
to (5)strongly agree, or (0)don’t know]:

Direct democracy been practiced in other countries and institutions and has been effective.

The educational system should participate in the implementation of a direct democracy utilizing Internet
and computer technology.

Direct democracy should be introduced and taught in Social Studies and Political Science courses.

A Constitutional amendment should be proposed creating a direct democracy system in the United
States.

The Internet is a reliable method of voting.

The voters have complete privacy and security

The public can be informed of issues to be voted on.

The voters could easily register their votes via the Internet or computer.

The public should be made aware of the safety using the Internet for direct democracy.

The public should be made aware of the limitations of direct democracy.

The public should be made aware of the roles and duties of citizens in a democracy.

The public should be made aware of the philosophy and history of democracy.

Do you think the United States is a democracy now?

Do you think Direct Democracy or people voting directly on legislative issues is a good idea?

Do you think adequate technology exists today for direct democracy?

Do you think adequate education, information, and training can be given to citizens for them to vote as
legislators?

Do you think interest for direct democracy would be maintained by the public?

Do you think that eventually a new branch of Congress could be formed by the voting citizens?

Do you think the people’s voting branch of Congress could be used first as an opinion collection
device?

Do you think citizens and students should study for and take examinations in order to receive
certification in order to qualify as a voting member of a legislature in a direct democracy?

Should the public schools provide education and training for citizens to function as voting members of a
direct democracy system of government?
Richard
--
I looked it up (a question about the effects of radioactivity that I asked in Unit one) and found that (of course, it is meant to be contained so that those problems don't happen) but from what I can gather, radioactivity can be harmful to animals because it causes radium to enter the bone marrow (not sure why that is bad), and can cause leukemia and other forms of cancer.  I think generally on a cellular level it causes cellular deformation and mutation and various chemical imbalances within the body.
Richard
--
Howard,
I amended my original posting and added some questions for the survey for social studies and political science teachers.  I can revise the list and add some more later. Are there any more that you can think of?
Richard
--
Unit 6
Activity 6.1:

Read Chapter 8, "Scenario Planning," in Alexander and Serfass.

Activity 6.2:

A. Your team will be your dyad for the purpose of this exercise. In the real world, a team would be larger than two and would include a variety of major stakeholders.
B. Identify a main issue to resolve. Your work with trend extrapolation will be helpful. Use an issue both dyad members have in common.
C. Are there key factors (trends, themes, forces) that bear influence on your organizations as related to the main issue you have identified?
D. Select 3-5 key factors, based on your perception of importance. Your goal is to be able to place these factors on the "Importance -Uncertainty Quadrants" chart, illustrated on p. 124 (Figure 8-8).
E. Select two axes of uncertainty.
F. Develop four scenarios.

Activity 6.3:

Search the Internet to identify and annotate two Web resources related to this unit. Read the Webliography Guidelines, found in the MediaCenter, for specific requirements.
Webliography:
Corporate Facilitation from the BREFI group.  Retrieved May 12, 2004 from http://www.brefigroup.co.uk/facilitation/scenario_planning_articles.html 
Don't Stop Thinking about Tomorrow. from CIO. com.  Retrieved May 12, 2004 from  http://www.cio.com/archive/010100/stop.html 
Outward Insights.  Retrieved May 12, 2004 from http://www.outwardinsights.com/   "We offer a host of solutions to help you anticipate-rather than react to-external threats and opportunities."
SekretariatProf.grat.  University of St. Gallen.  Retrieved May 12, 2004 from http://www.sgzz.ch/home/links/scenplan.htm 
Discussion 6.1:

Each dyad will post a draft of their scenarios and provide a rationale for the underlying premises that provide the framework of the scenarios. As you read the premises of other dyads, comment on the connection that was made between premises and scenarios. Do you agree with the dyad? Could their argument be strengthened?
in course room:
Discussion 6.1

Each learner will post a draft of his or her scenarios and provide a rationale for the underlying premises that provide the framework of the scenarios. 

Read the premises of at least two other learners, comment on the connection that was made between premises and scenarios. Do you agree with these other learners? How could their argument be strengthened?
--
u6d1:  Scenario Planning:
Purpose
Definition
Operational Characteristics
Structure
Examples
Process: 
Step 1: Select the right team  -- This concept is somewhat similar to the Delphi Technique with a team of people envisioning the future but the scenario planning team could also include people who are not necessarily categorized as experts but who have a participatory interest in the issue(s) involved and this group could also contain imaginative, creative artists, writers, and visionaries.
Step 2: Identify the main issue to resolve.  It is a good idea to have a focus for the scenario but conceivably the scenario could contain several issues but usually one would rank as the most important.  My particular project involves having teachers create scenarios for introducing, implementing, and sustaining a type of direct democracy though the facilities of the educational system.
Step 3. List the key factors in the environment.  Today, the main issues often involve technology, the economy, democracy, access to education, quality versus quantity, among others.
Step 4: Rank key factors. This is a ranking of the above-mentioned key factors in the order of most to least important.  For my project I would have the ranking in descending order as: democracy, social issues, technology, the economy, access to education, quality versus quantity.
Step 5: Determine axes of uncertainty.  These are opposite, contrary, or opposing views.  These can include war and peace, stability and instability, etc.  And in societal structures: hierarchal as opposed to participatory systems and inclusive as opposed to exclusive systems.
Step 6: Develop scenarios.  These are usually arranged in groups of four positioned in the four quadrants of the x and y axes configuration.
Step 7: Analyze and interpret scenarios.  The team assesses the scenarios based on practicality, feasibility, probability, utility, etc.

Four possible future societal scenarios are listed below:
(-,+) Scenario 1  eastern-style hierarchal, Confucian democracy
(+,+) Scenario 2  totalitarianism, communism
(-, -) Scenario 3  direct democracy
(+,-) Scenario 4  representative democracy
(the pluses and minuses in the parentheses indicate the location within the ( x,y ) quadrants, not value judgements, with hierarchal on the top, participatory on the bottom, inclusive on the left, and exclusive on the right side of the chart.)

Scenario 1  eastern-style hierarchal, Confucian democracy.    Scenario 2  totalitarianism, communism
Scenario 3  direct democracy                                                 Scenario 4  representative democracy

.	        +
.	  Hierarchal
-  Inclusive      ,     Exclusive  +
.	 Participatory
.	          -

Hypothetical Scenarios of the year 2030
Scenario 1  Hierarchical democracy
This is a hierarchical system derived predominately from the oriental philosophy of Confucius (551-479 BC) joined with the concepts of democracy as first formulated in Athens, Greece (circa 500 BC) and guided by the demands a capitalistically fueled market economy.  The educational system is a combination of state-supplied public education with private institutions providing educational enhancements.  The economics of this system is a union of public and private funding and utilizes the ever accerating advances of technology.
Scenario 2  Totalitarianism and Communism
This system is centralized and theoretically derived from the philosophy of the German philosopher, Karl Marx and unquestioning devotion to the state and its leadership is required of all citizens.  The educational system is also centralized and all texts, curriculum, and funding emanate from the state.  Religious concepts are not allowed to be discussed, however, philosophical concepts are allowed to be discussed in the educational system but students, teachers, and citizens must take an oath to support the official state doctrine.  All technological, political, and economic endeavers exist for the glorification and maintenance of the state.
Scenario 3  Direct democracy
The United States --as well as many other nations -- is adopting a direct participatory, rather than a representative, form of democracy in determining legislative decisions thus adhering more closely to the concepts of democracy as originally evisioned.  The United States Congress, as a result of many referendums, petitions, letters, and public demand has now passed the 30th amendment to the United States Constitution which establishes the Third House of Congress which is composed of qualified voting members of the Public Assembly and whose combined votes count as 1/3, along with the House of Representatives and the Senate, in determining the passage of legislative bills.  The educational system supplies the training and education of all citizens who are eligible, as registered voters with a special certification, to become voting members of the Public Assembly.  The economy functions according to the principles of Adam Smith's concept of capitalism and the free market system and the econmomic system is funded by public and private sources.
Scenario 4  Representative democracy
The society has maintained the status quo --though some would think stagnated-- of the political climate carried over from the beginning of the millennium in the year 2000 and the representative democratic system of the United States prevails though the economy continues to suffer as a result of the on-going war against the Arab and Islamic League, which began with Iraq in 2003 but has since been joined by 11 other Arabic and Islamic alligned associations of nations amounting to a sort of prolonged world conflict.  Though technological advances continue to occur, the economy, as well as the educational system, has suffered also since many of the nations resources have been devoted to that conflict.

Hypothetical Scenarios of the year 3000
Scenario 1  Hierarchical democracy
Society and technology continue to develop rapidly and the hierarchical structure based on the Confucian philosophy are successfully integrated into a world culture where modified English (joined with verbal units of other languages) remains the international language and everyone on Earth is connected by communication technology.  The economic system, based on Adam Smith's concept of capitalism and free markets, prospers and the educational system continues to progress.
Scenario 2  Totalitarianism and Communism
The state continues to rule but now computer-based systems and decisions are ruling the state so that ,in effect, human society is governed by machines.  The effect of society's endeavors is that money within the economy is dispersed so that according to communist doctrine, everyone has more or less an equal share of the world economy regardless of their position or role within society.  Nature has been relegated to the position as servant to mankind's aspirations and, resultingly, natural resources are diminishing quickly.  The state continues to combine all nations into one centrally administered government and centrally administered state-owned enterprises.  Children continue to be raised by the Family Unit Division of the Central Committee and educated in Communal Learning Combines.  The educational system continues to be funded from a centralized system and continues to extol the virtues of the state.
Scenario 3  Direct democracy
As a result of computer technolog the world is connected via computer and legislative decisions are, after a period of debate, are determined by a click of a button by the voting members of the legislaturye. The economy continues to follow the laws of supply and demand and most of the international conflicts have been resolved as the public is against such confict and violence and most are interested in their own -- as well as mankind's -- survival.  The economy and the educational system continues to prosper and knowledge continues to be added to the knowledge base.
Scenario 4  Representative democracy
The elitism, squabbles, and power struggles of representative government continue and the world continues to plunge into economic turmoil as international conflicts -- with the additional threat of the technologies of destruction -- continue to escalate which drain the economy, the environment, and the supply of natural resources.  The economic and educational system continue to be secondary to the political conflicts that occur between politicians.

End Scenario 5:  Year 85,000
The human race has largely evacuated Earth as a result of a series of earlier nuclear wars and epidemic outbreaks of diseases but primarily because of the depletion of Earth's natural resources, atmospheric loss, and the decrease of the sun's temperature as a result of its diminishing hydrogen supply (though in another approximately one billion years the sun will lose most of its feul supply and causing it swell into a supernova thus becoming a red giant engulfing the inner planets, including Earth.)  Some genetically-altered humans have been assigned as extra-terrestial space travelers for generations-long space journeys through the universe to colonize or inhabit other more hospitable planetary systems.  Some humans, and other organisms and life forms, have been sent via extra-dimensional methods (also referred to as the "beam-me-up-Scottie" method) however the success of these endeavers are not known as the travelers are unable to communicate messages back from the destinations to which they are aimed since the messages would require millions of light years to be received, which, as most would agree, is too long to wait.

Reference: 
Alexander, A. & Serfass R.  (1999).  Futuring Tools for Strategic Quality Planning in Education. Milwaukee, Wisconsin: Quality Press.

Webliography:
Corporate Facilitation from the BREFI group.  Retrieved May 12, 2004 from http://www.brefigroup.co.uk/facilitation/scenario_planning_articles.html 
Don't Stop Thinking about Tomorrow. from CIO. com.  Retrieved May 12, 2004 from  http://www.cio.com/archive/010100/stop.html 
Outward Insights.  Retrieved May 12, 2004 from http://www.outwardinsights.com/   "We offer a host of solutions to help you anticipate-rather than react to-external threats and opportunities."
SekretariatProf.grat.  University of St. Gallen.  Retrieved May 12, 2004 from http://www.sgzz.ch/home/links/scenplan.htm 
--
Howard,
The syllabus for Unit 6 suggests that we let our imaginations run "just a little bit wild" by developing future scenarios so that is what I've done.  I added descriptions to the scenarios in my posting.
Also, there was no mention as to how far into the future we were to project, though most of us assumed the near future of within our lifetimes.  I wrote a set of scenarios for the years 2030 and 3000 in addition to a bonus scenario for the year 85,000  (That sounds like a long time away, but if humans are to be on Earth longer than the dinosaurs, we still have another 98,000,000 million years to go, so in that scale, a few hundred -- or even thousands of years -- is not such a long time.)
Richard

---- for Unit 6 Scuttlebutt
In a previous Scuttlebutt area I mentioned the use of the supernatural for looking into the future.
Another method of exploring the future is speculation by futurologists.  Some of these are: John Naisbitt (Megatrends, Megatrends 2000, Megatrends Asia), Alvin Toffler (Future Shock, The Third Wave), and Hamish McRae (The World in 2020).
Also the contribution of science fiction writers, artists, and inventors should be mentioned.   Science fiction writers such as Jules Verne (television, submarines, space travel), H.G. Wells (social systems, beyond earth communication), Arthur Clarke (satellites), and Mary Shelly (organ transplants) all helped shape the present with their imagination.  Also,artists, inventors and creative geniuses such as Leonardo da Vinci (airplane, parachute, bicycle, etc.) and Thomas Edison (light bulb, phonograph, and motion picture film, cameras, and projectors, etc.) helped move society and technology towards the future as well.
Perhaps these examples could be considered as types of Scenario Planning.
Richard
--
Carolyn,
I'm sure Ryan will enjoy Kagoshima and he should see but be "beware" of Sakurajima (the active volcano there).  The trains from Nagasaki to Kagoshima, along with the Shinkansen or the "bullet train", are some of the best trains in the world.  I remember the female attendants on the train to Kagoshima were like (and dressed like) stewardesses or flight attendents rather than what one would usually find on a train ride so the trip was more like a plane ride than a train ride.
Richard
---
u6 Comment to Thurm:
I think nuclear power is probably the wave of the future since not as much material is needed to create energy (as opposed to power derived from coal, oil, water, etc.), however, the problem of nuclear waste and radioactivity must always be attended to.  In China, the government is building the world's largest dam -- to make dam-generated electricity and to control flooding -- which will create the world's largest artificial lake.  Some say this could have been done with a series of smaller dams or with nuclear power plants (for the electrical power).
I think in the future harnessing the sun's energy, which is always a natural source of energy, and utilizing solar power is also the wave of the future.
Richard
--
u6 Comment to Cheryl:
I assume from what I read in your descriptions that the preferred Scenario is #1 (or perhaps #2).  I think in such an institution that education, training, and counseling are essential.  Also, I think it would be helpful for all of the detainees to be trained for in-house duties (as well as for skills that can be used outside of the institution's walls) and they could each have jobs within the institution to be paid -- or punished by demerits or non-payment -- with an in-house currency that could be used for in-house purchases of goods and perhaps services.
Richard
---
UNIT 7
Activity 7.1:

Read Chapter 10, "Futuring Tree," in Alexander and Serfass.

Activity 7.2:

Work with your dyad to develop a futuring tree using the instructions in the unit presentation. The steps dyads will take include:

Prepare a vision statement for one of your scenarios.

Develop key vision themes (each theme should be described in sentence form) for one of your scenarios.

Define the present state related to that scenario and write a paragraph describing that state (see the example on page 159).

Begin the branch point network by working backward from each key vision theme. 

Move backward one step at a time. This is an exercise in logic as you continue to answer the question, "what decisions, activities, and/or events must occur in order for this to be the next logical step?" (p. 160).

Form the completed network.

Activity 7.3:

Search the Internet to identify and annotate two Web resources related to this unit. Read the "Webliography Guidelines," found in the MediaCenter, for specific requirements.
Rausch, Erwin.  (1994).  SIMULATION AND GAMES IN FUTURING AND OTHER USES.  Retrieved May 19, 2004 from  http://www.futurovenezuela.org/_curso/14-games.pdf     Simulated futuring specifically in relation to computers, games, virtual reality, game theory and business and societal future scenarios.

List, Dennis.  (2001).  Multiple pasts, converging presents, and alternative futures.  Retrieved May 19, 2004 from http://business2.unisa.edu.au/innovres/papers/brasov.htm   Various methods of futuring techniques. 

Jigsaw Project.  (2002).  Creating our Future.  Retrieved May 19, 2004 from http://www.communitybuilders.nsw.gov.au/download/jigsaw_final_report.pdf  A project with several future scenarios, mostly for the year 2020, and how to arrive at them. 

Futures Resource Pack.  Retrieved May 19, 2004 from www.fastfuture.com/Docs/FFV_Futures_Resource_Pack.doc  
A list of links and resources related to futuring and studies concerning the future.

Discussion 7.1:

In dyads, present a narrative describing what you have decided to be the priority pathways between "present state" and "future state." Justify your choice - why this pathway? Keep in mind that there is no one "right" pathway; in the real world, priority pathways would vary depending upon an organization's unique needs and resources.
From Howard
Discussion 7.1

Present a narrative describing what you have decided to be the priority pathways between "present state" and "future state." Justify your choice ? why this pathway? Keep in mind that there is no one "right" pathway; in the real world, priority pathways would vary depending upon an organization's unique needs and resources.

Comment on the Futuring Tree of at least two other learners
--
Futuring Tree:
A Systemic History of
the Development of Direct Democracy
from 2020 traced back to 2004
ED 815
The Future of Educational Systems
Spring 2004
Richard Bloodworth
P.O.Box 78123
Atlanta, GA  30357
RBloodworth99@yahoo.com
Dr. Howard Jacobs

The concept of futuring trees reverses the concept of working towards the future and takes the various routes (that originated from the present) backwards from the future to the present (now).  The futuring tree method is similar to the method of following dropped breadcrumbs to arrive at the current destination's point of origin, as was done by Hansel and Gretl in finding their way back home, or the deductive reasoning methods of Sherlock Holmes to uncover the perpetrator(s) of a crime by working backwards from the committed crime to the present condition.  The futuring tree method also brings to mind the phrase "All roads lead to Rome" since there can be innumerable routes to arrive at one particular destination, which, in the case of futuring trees, is the desired and attained future state.  And, since, to use another familiar phrase, there are a million ways to skin a cat, there are likewise an uncountable number of possible routes that can be taken to arrive at the desired future destination.

A futuring tree can be defined as a diagraming of network pathways moving from the desired future goal to the present conditions.
The purpose of constructing a futuring tree is to identify a future goal and then determine what pathways would have been necessary to achieve that desired goal by reasoning backward towards the present.
The operational characteristics of a futuring tree are that the process begins with the desired future state, that vision and stragegic methods to achieve a goal are required,  that the analysis proceeds in reverse from the future to the present and presents a network of possibilities that occur through phases of development.
The structure of a futuring tree is analogous to the branching of a tree with the trunk being the future and the branches moving toward the present.
One example of constructing a futuring tree is the space flight program where an organization, such as NASA, determines a future goal such as a planetary space flight, and then thinks back from that goal to the present to determine how that goal can be achieved.
The process for constructing a futuring tree could involve the following steps.
1. Establish an Appropriate Cross-Functional Team.
2. Develop Key Vision Themes.
3. Define the Present State.
4. Begin the Branch Point Network.
5. Analyze Theme One.
6. Analyze Themes Two, Three, and Four.
7. Form the Completed Network.
8. Identify Priority Pathways.
9. Develop an Action Plan.
In the future scenario as illustrated by a futuring tree, society evolves toward the practice of the democracy that almost everyone says they believe in (yet which exists only on a small and local scale such as within a legislature or a small organization)  a world exempt from the petty, and potentially deadly -- for the ruled populace -- conflicts between politicians.  From the future of direct democracy back to the present, we would first need to conduct the journey from one situation or location and I would choose the United States of America for the purposes of this futuring tree.  Today the United States has a complicated system of local, state, and federal legislatures and a government roughly divided into an executive, a legislative, and a judicial branch.  The purpose, it is said, of a democracy is govern according to the will of the people, a concept developed around 500 BC in Athens, Greece.  This is now accomplished by electing people who try to think like the majority of the people who elected them on every issue, which is in actuality, an impossible task.  Also, it is done by conducting random opinion polls such as the Gallup or Harris polls to get a general idea of what the public is thinking.  Only recently has technology offered the possibility of rendering the public's desires directly, however, this idea is too new to be absorbed into and accepted by the collective consciousness at the present time and needs time to be explored and then accepted.  As every individual's strongest drive is the drive for survival, so too the strongest drive of the collective consciousness of society is the drive for survival of human society and it is therefore logical to assume that the majority of a society will elect to choose those behaviors and conditions that are the most beneficial to the sustenance of the human race.  For these reasons, a government of, by, and for the people is the preferred method of governance.

Reference: 
Alexander, A. & Serfass R.  (1999).  Futuring Tools for Strategic Quality Planning in Education. Milwaukee, Wisconsin: Quality Press.

Webliography:

List, Dennis.  (2001).  Multiple pasts, converging presents, and alternative futures.  Retrieved May 19, 2004 from http://business2.unisa.edu.au/innovres/papers/brasov.htm   Various methods of futuring techniques. 

Rausch, Erwin.  (1994).  SIMULATION AND GAMES IN FUTURING AND OTHER USES.  Retrieved May 19, 2004 from  http://www.futurovenezuela.org/_curso/14-games.pdf     Simulated futuring specifically in relation to computers, games, virtual reality, game theory and business and societal future scenarios.

Futures Resource Pack.  Retrieved May 19, 2004 from www.fastfuture.com/Docs/FFV_Futures_Resource_Pack.doc  A list of links and resources related to futuring and studies concerning the future.
Jigsaw Project.  (2002).  Creating our Future.  Retrieved May 19, 2004 from http://www.communitybuilders.nsw.gov.au/download/jigsaw_final_report.pdf  A project with several future scenarios, mostly for the year 2020, and how to arrive at them. 
--
from Lison:
Your futuring tree and analysis is both well written and thought provoking. The only question I have is as to the underlying premise you build upon. Recently, I have been reading the David McCullough book on John Adams which provided a great deal of insight into the contemplative processes of the founding fathers and an idea what their futuring process looked like. This included the delivery of a Declaration of Independence, the Federalist Papers, a First and Second Continental Congress, Articles of Confederation and finally a Constitutional Convention. This futuring process occurred over a 25-year period (1764-1789). During this period there were uprisings, rebellions, and blood shed by many citizens. Their task was monumental and it certainly was high stakes. 

If you want an example of how difficult this idea of democracy was to achieve, just look at what is happening in Iraq right now, today. The establishment of a representative democracy in Iraq is not falling into place that easily. It would seem to me that our country has come farther than any civilized nation on the face of the earth in terms of delivering a government that is representative of the people. Yet we seem to be still striving to find that utopian ideal in which every viewpoint of every citizen would be taken into consideration equally relative to the way we run our local, state, and federal affairs. In this country we have freedom of speech, the vote, and the right to participate in political debate. Anyway, I'm not sure that a radical change in the way we govern ourselves in this country could be realistically achieved unless people would be willing to give up what they have currently in order to get an uncertain result

from Howard:
Richard, the comment I really want to me is, ?I love it!? You have put a great deal of thought into this. In your description you discussed how this concept could become a reality in part because we have the technology to do so. In some respects I think the greatest obstacle lies on the human side rather than the technology. 

You covered many of the bases ? discussion/education, funding, and the technological components. The futuring tree, as you noted indicates what would need to happen rather than a prediction of what will happen. The greatest obstacles, as I see it, are the human factors: those who have power tend to do everything to retain that power. In this country we cannot even get rid of the Electoral College to have people elected by the popular vote.

There is the old line from Pogo, ?We have met the enemy and he is us.?

for response to Howard
Now is the time to utilize modern technology to allow the public to vote directly via the Internet, thus creating a government closer to a pure democracy. This could be accomplished by an amendment to the United States Constitution, if necessary. The implementation of this plan would unfold, develop, and occur in an evolutionary rather than a revolutionary way creating the 3rd House of the United States Congress, the Public Assembly.
 
from ED5004:

Introduction to the Action Plan, an example of participatory action research:

When the United States Constitution was written the forefathers wrote a general, all-encompassing and sweeping document that is still  relevant, has stood the test of time, and has withstood the difficulties, controversies, and amendments that have occurred during its existence.  But this document was written around 1776 and the society at the time was very different from the society of today.  The forefathers, even with all of their foresight and all-inclusiveness were not able to factor in dramatic future changes in technology and, resultingly, in society.  They could not have foreseen a future with telephones, radios, televisions, cars, airplanes, jet engines, rockets, computers, the internet, etc.  Now that the new technologies are here and will continue to grow, advance, and be perfected, we need to see how this affects society, the government, and the Constitution.
 
The United States in its military campaigns says it wants to promote and protect democracy.  But is the  United States a democracy?  No, it is not: it is a republic or a representative democracy.  An example of a democracy within the United  States federal goverment is the U.S. Congress where the members debate and vote usually for a simple majority to win a case or a referendum or to pass a bill.  When a presidential election is held today well over 100 million people can vote.  The United States Constitution created the electoral college for, I have heard, several reasons and one of them is to prevent mob rule (but isn't that what democracy is?) or for a government run by the uneducated (though now, most people are receiving high levels of education in comparison with the past of the forefathers).I think another reason that the electoral college was institutionalized was because, at the time the Constitution was written, if a national election were to be held, tallying the votes would be an almost impossible task.  A sack of votes, or the results of local voting, would have to be sent by a messenger riding horseback.  Just carrying the votes from California (or Georgia, during the time of the 13 colonies) to Washington, D.C. could take weeks, that is, if they ever even got to their destination.  Today, we live in a very different world where messages are transmitted instantaneously worldwide via telephones, computers, or the Internet.

I propose that, using internet technology, U.S. citizens be allowed to vote directly on the issues and bills that are presented to the United States Congress as well as the state legislatures and county and city governments.  On the national level this would entail creating a new branch of Congress: the 3rd House or the Public Assembly.

                                Cons                                                                                Pros                       
                                                                   
only advantaged people having access to the internet.  everyone has access to the voting centers
not every one has a computer now.                                soon computers will be as plentiful as telephones.     
mob rule by the uneducated.                                           most people now have advanced educations              
too radical a change                                                         the U.S. Constitution was a                   radical document at the time it was introduced
too complicated                                                                can be done with computer, internet technology
people what to keep things the way they are                    A welcome change
illiterate and uneducated people voting                            Illiterate voters also vote in regular elections
people voting for issues they are not trained in               Legislators don't have expertise in all areas either
Internet fraud                                                                    Internet credit card fraud is about .088% at that rate
                                                                                          the margin would be 880 votes out of one million,
                                                                                          though this system could be more closely regulated
						    	      following the example of banking transactions.
People don't want radical, revolutionary changes            The American Revolution: radical and revolutionary
It's revolutionary                                                               No, it's not; it's evolutionary.
People are conservative and don't want to change           People want to live under a democratic system.
u7 Reply to Howard and Liston
When the United States Constitution was written, the forefathers wrote an all-encompassing and a sweeping document that is still  relevant, has stood the test of time, and has withstood the difficulties, controversies, and amendments that have occurred during its existence.  But this document was written around 1776 and the society at the time was very different from the society of today.  The forefathers, even with all of their foresight and all-inclusiveness were not able to factor in dramatic future changes in technology and, resultingly, in society.  They could not have foreseen a future with telephones, radios, televisions, cars, airplanes, jet engines, rockets, computers, the Internet, etc.  Now that the new technologies are here and will continue to grow, advance, and be perfected, we need to examine how this affects society, the government, and the Constitution.
 
The United States in its military campaigns says it wants to promote and protect democracy.  But is the  United States a democracy?  It is a republic or a representative democracy.  An example of a democracy within the United  States federal goverment is the U.S. Congress where the members debate and vote usually for a simple majority to win a case or a referendum or to pass a bill.  When a presidential election is held today well over 100 million people can vote.  The United States Constitution created the electoral college for, I have heard, several reasons and one of them is to prevent mob rule (but isn't that what democracy is?) or for a government run by the uneducated (though now, most people are receiving high levels of education in comparison with the past of the forefathers).  I think another reason that the electoral college was institutionalized was because, at the time the Constitution was written, if a national election were to be held, tallying the votes would be an almost impossible task.  Then, a sack of votes, or the results of local voting, would have to be sent by a messenger riding horseback.  Just carrying the votes from California (or Georgia, during the time of the 13 colonies) to Washington, D.C. could take weeks, that is, if they ever even got to their destination.  Today, we live in a very different world where messages are transmitted instantaneously worldwide via telephones, computers, or the Internet.

My idea is not to do away with the U.S. Congress as it exists now but to add a new section: the Public Assembly.  The passage of a bill would require a majority vote in each of the 3 sections: the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the Public Assembly.  The difference in the three sections is that the Public Assembly would have many more voters. (A similar concept could be utilized on the state and local levels also).  Some might think of the idea as revolutionary but I would call it evolutionary.  I think the technology of computers and the Internet is much more revolutionary and what could be more revolutionary and radical than the American Revolutionary War and the accompanying documents of independence?  The Iraq War is also revolutionary but it was instigated externally whereas the American Revolution was instigated internally by the local inhabitants who understood the culture in which they lived -- and that is a big difference.

After the 2000 Presidential election fiasco, and since Al Gore got at least 530, 000 more of the public's votes, I was surprised later that there was not a movement, or even a discussion, about a replacement of the Electoral College system but apparently most people seem to be accepting of that system at the present time.  Also, the concept I suggested, the Public Assembly,  would not necessarily preclude the existence of the Electoral College, that is a separate issue and it could be decided at some future time to either modify or eliminate that system.  With my described idea it would be conceivably possible to retain the Electoral College and still have the Public Assembly.

The preferred method of implementation of this idea is to proceed in an evolutionary, gradual, and non-violent way and build the system by avoiding the mistakes of , and building on the successes, of the past.
In reply to Howard's Pogo quote: I think it is true that mankind is mankind's worst enemy and some of the characteristics of the enemy are stubbornness and ignorance.  Richard
--
u7 comment to Thurm:
Russia is the largest country in the world -- its width spans almost half the globe -- and it had at one time the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons.  My concern is, with all of the bribable bureaucrats there I wonder if there is (was) a possibility of nuclear material and technology to be sold to governments or even to terrorists after, or even before, the breakup of the U.S.S.R.
Recently, in Pakistan it was revealed that the head nuclear scientist there (I think a Nobel Prize winner) had been selling nuclear material, technology, and technological information to various governments including Iran and North Korea over the past several years.  
Also, will nuclear technology ever reach the point where it becomes publicly available, and the manufacturing techniques publicly attainable, so that terrorists can make home-made nuclear bombs (not only so-called "dirty bombs" which contain radioactive material)?  It's a scary thought but one worth considering. Richard
--
u7 comment to Karen:
I'm mentioning this in the futuring tree section since portfolio compilation involves the concepts of futuring:  perhaps there could be assistance (both before entering the institute and during the time spent studying there) in the development of student portfolios, both drawing and painting on paper as well as computer-based art saved on disks or presented on a website.  Richard
--
u7 reply to Debra
Debra,
Thank you your comments.  I'm glad that diagram was helpful to you. Richard 
---
The World Future Society makes available online an "Owner's Manual to the Future" (World Future Society--The Future: An Owner's Manual <http://www.wfs.org/ownermanual.htm>). 
Activity 8.1:

Search the Internet and identify cases where you can actually check the predictions of a futuring process. (Try searching for futuring studies done a number of years ago to determine whether the outcome came true.) Read the "Webliography Guidelines," found in the MediaCenter, for specific requirements.
Discussion 8.1:

In Unit 1, you responded to this question, "Identify current issues and/or trends impacting your professional environments. Do you believe that these issues or trends are lasting or temporary? What evidence can you cite to support your beliefs?" Answer this question again, and then read your response in Unit 1. Did you write a different answer now? What knowledge that you acquired in this course cause you to change your answer?
Discussion 8.2:

In the journal, The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, one can find articles from 1968 and 1972 on topics such as genetic engineering, climate change, germ warfare, and how the countries of India and China were working to create nuclear weapons. These topics remain important to this day. All of the articles were written by scientists and respected scholars. What role do you think expertise plays in predicting the future? Does this knowledge change your mind about the efficacy of the futuring tools presented in this course?
u8d1 from Howard
In the journal, The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, one can find articles from 1968 and 1972 on topics such as genetic engineering, climate change, germ warfare, and how the countries of India and China were working to create nuclear weapons. These topics remain important to this day. All of the articles were written by scientists and respected scholars. What role do you think expertise plays in predicting the future? Does this knowledge change your mind about the efficacy of the futuring tools presented in this course?

Respond to the postings of at least two other learners
In the journal, The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, one can find articles from 1968 and 1972 on topics such as genetic engineering, climate change, germ warfare, and how the countries of India and China were working to create nuclear weapons. These topics remain important to this day. All of the articles were written by scientists and respected scholars. What role do you think expertise plays in predicting the future? Does this knowledge change your mind about the efficacy of the futuring tools presented in this course?
We are today still concerned with the issues mentioned above: genetic engineering (cloning and stem cell research), climate change (global warming including the new movie about the subject, The Day After Tomorrow), germ warfare (al-Qaida and others), and how the countries of India and China were working to create nuclear weapons (we are still concerned about nuclear weapons in these countries as well as the search for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and North Korea, among others).  Unfortunately, much of the weapons of mass destruction information concerning the middle east was obtained via word of mouth from defectors from those countries rather than from experts so more expert knowledge could have been used in those pursuits.  There are also ethical issues associated with entrusting experts with potentially harmful information such as what occurred recently, in Pakistan where it was revealed that the head nuclear scientist there had been selling nuclear material, technology, and technological information to various governments including Iran and North Korea over the past several years. 
Expert scientists and scholars generally base their thoughts on history and on their collective knowledge and experience within their field of expertise.  However, experts are generally regarded for the above mentioned values and not for their imagination or visions of the future and they generally tend to mention what can not be done rather than what can or should be done based on precedents and their knowledge of history within their field.
Experts should be highly regarded within the fields of their endeavors and they are repositories of relevant information within the field of their expertise and they are expert mostly in the areas of history and factual information.  An expert should be highly educated -- usually educated within a formal educational setting but also,  possibly, within an empirical or experiential environment -- within the field of their expertise.   The experts, however, are generally not known for their imagination, innovation, and creativity, and that is where the ordinary citizens, as well as visionaries, artists, writers, and the like, come into play as they can submit ideas for the experts' scrutiny for plans for the best possible future for the most people.  This process also demonstrates the value of democracy, the Internet, and other new technologies.  If two heads are better than one then how much better are 6 billion heads (or selecting from 6 billion heads)?  A good future might include some factor of luck, or being in the right place at the right time, but more often than not, it is the result of careful planning and the systematic execution of those plans.  So experts and scientists, in concert with other sources, can play a vital role in guiding -- if not predicting -- the present towards a desirable future.
Reference:
Alexander, A. & Serfass R.  (1999).  Futuring Tools for Strategic Quality Planning in Education. Milwaukee, Wisconsin: Quality Press.
Webliography:
Kerry M. Joels, Kerry. (2004). Future Studies: An Interdisciplinary Vehicle for Space Science Education.  Retrieved May 26, 2004 from http://www.jsc.nasa.gov/er/seh/future.html
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u8d1 Comment to Liston:

Your idea that the future is a continuation of present trends is very well expressed and I particularly like the final thought that mentions that "the present informs our future(s) and that making our world better today must be the point of embarkation for any effort to predict the future." After all, that is the purpose of all of our endeavors: to make the world of the future better for everyone.

Richard
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u8d1 Comment to Lisa
The President Kennedy mission to the moon example you gave provides a good illustration of how an idea can be implanted in the minds of the public and then carried out according to plan. His plan involved a 10 year realization period so long-term sequential and systematic planning coordinated by experts in the field of endeavor is essential when planning such future projects.  The public also became committed to achieving his goal and that commitment solidified after his assassination giving the nation a positive united cause.
Richard
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u8d2 from Howard
In Unit 1, you responded to this question, "Identify current issues and/or trends impacting your professional environments. Do you believe that these issues or trends are lasting or temporary? What evidence can you cite to support your beliefs?" Answer this question again, and then read your response in Unit 1. Did you write a different answer now? What knowledge that you acquired in this course cause you to change your answer?
[ Response to U1D2:

Identify current issues and/or trends impacting your professional environments. Do you believe that these issues or trends are lasting or temporary? What evidence can you cite to support your beliefs? Think carefully about these trends because you will continue to work with them throughout this course.
Technology is changing the world situation at a rapid pace in all aspects: educationally, socially, politically, environmentally, economically, culturally, etc.  The issue of technology is lasting in the sense that technology will always affect how life and educational processes are conducted, however,  new technologies are constantly being introduced so that one needs to constantly become acquainted with and trained in new technological techniques so in that sense the effects of technology are transitory or temporary.
In the educational field, one example of the new uses of technology is the use of distance learning using online instruction via the Internet.  In addition to technology, issues that impact the living and professional environments are the decentralization of all processes, globalization, and the democratization of society.
Thomas Heaney in Adult Education for Social Change: From Center Stage to the Wings and Back Again views adult education as participatory and as a tool for social change where educational progressivism is the modern approach to educating the public.  " 'Adult education turns out to be the most reliable instrument for social actionists' since it assures that any action undertaken would be authentically democratic" (Brookfield 1984).  Eduard Lindeman, as influenced by John Dewey (Democracy and Education), considers adult education to be intertwined with democracy, social action, and control by people over their daily decisions.  To Lindeman, adult education equals social change, a method to create good and productive citizens.  Even if education is viewed as a "great selector" rather than a "great equalizer" (p. 4),  each person can, as a result of education, find their niche, based on their abilities and merits, within a democratic society.   The concept of using the educational system to implement a direct democracy is closely connected with the ideas expressed by Heaney, Miles Horton, Paulo Freire, and Jack Mezirow since their approach is to empower the populace through education in order to create a democratic society.  It is necessary to have an educated public in order to have a direct democracy work efficiently so democracy is dependent the educational system to survive and prosper.  
My interest is in developing, by utilizing the educational system, a system of direct democracy which is basically having citizens vote directly on legislative issues rather than electing representatives who can, after elected, vote any way they choose. Direct democracy is a concept which began in ancient Athens, Greece where all citizens voted directly on legislative issues.  In the modern world, direct democracy was considered impractical to implement on a large scale but it is now possible with the advent of computer and Internet technologies.
References:
Dewey, John. (1944).  Democracy and Education. New York: Simon & Schuster Inc.
Heaney, Thomas. Adult Education for Social Change: From Center Stage to the Wings and Back Again.  (1996).  Retrieved April 5, 2004 from  http://www.nl.edu/ace/Resources/Documents/ERIC1.html    ]
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u8d2 Lasting and Temporary Trends
"Identify current issues and/or trends impacting your professional environments. Do you believe that these issues or trends are lasting or temporary? What evidence can you cite to support your beliefs?"
Basic principles and concepts, such as the laws of physics, are enduring however our interpretation or of their explanations or our theories about them may change over time as well as the methods of implementing some principles.  People's attitudes and beliefs as well as technology are always changing, so it can be said the only constant in life is change.  As expressed in a Buddhist saying: "you never put your foot into the same river twice."  I think the idea of democracy has been constant throughout history but the institutions that implement the principles can be diverse, temporary, or changing.  The idea I have presented, the idea of direct democracy, might be thought of as being too new for some people, though it can hardly be said that an idea that originated before 500BC can be thought of as new.
I think I would answer this question the same way as I did in Unit 1 discussion but the difference is that I am now familiar with futuring methods that can be utilized to bring concepts into realization in the future.  As I mentioned previously, "technology is changing the world situation at a rapid pace in all aspects: educationally, socially, politically, environmentally, economically, and culturally.  The issue of technology is lasting in the sense that technology will always affect how life and educational processes are conducted, however,  new technologies are constantly being introduced so that one needs to constantly become acquainted with and trained in new technological techniques so in that sense the effects of technology are transitory or temporary.  In the educational field, one example of the new uses of technology is the use of distance learning using online instruction via the Internet.  In addition to technology, issues that impact the living and professional environments are the decentralization of all processes, globalization, and the democratization of society."
The concepts that I mentioned, since they exist in the realm of ideas (as expressed in Plato's Theory of Forms), are lasting but any manisfestations of them within the physical world are transitory so, for example, the concept of democracy is enduring but the methods of implementing it are temporary as are the tools and applications of technology.
Reference: 
Alexander, A. & Serfass R.  (1999).  Futuring Tools for Strategic Quality Planning in Education. Milwaukee, Wisconsin: Quality Press.
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Response to Carolyn
Carolyn,
To answer your question, I see the trend of the growth of technology as continuing and accelerating.
Richard
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Merriam-Webster Dictionary 2004
adj.  expert: having, involving, or displaying special skill or knowledge derived from training or experience <dictionary?book=Dictionary&va=experience>

Perhaps there are semantics
Reply to Karen, u8
The Merriam-Webster Dictionary (2004) definition of expert is "one with the special skill or knowledge representing mastery of a particular subject". Though there might be some semantic variations of the term I don't think that definition includes vision or imagination though there may be some individuals, such as the ones you mentioned, that are expert and visionary.
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Additional Strategies:
There could also be several medical committees instituted to study methods of reviving the horse.
14.  Several medical committees are instituted to study methods of reviving the horse.
Richard
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What about mastery of art, writing, or even leadership? Must an expert have only mastery of a subject like science or history?
Response to Karen:  The visual arts, writing, and leadership (and others, including music) can have people who function at an expert level but the the great practioners of the arts would have what could be referred to as talent (or genius if they achieve a level or insight beyond that which has been previously achieved) and the experts in those areas mostly -- mostly -- would perform analytical, theoretical, or historical research functions related to those disciplines and a few of those might also be practitioners of those mentioned disciplines.
Richard
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Howard,
I plan on having the paper submitted by June 15, 2004 (as opposed to 2005 or some other year).
The format will be in Adobe Reader (which every has or can get as a free download from the Web or from Capella) which was the same program as the futuring tree was presented in.
Richard

USE LATER
We will always need a military since there will always be confict or potential for conflict in the world just as we will always need doctors since there will always be diseases or potential for diseases in the world.
In some Asian countries, unless exempted for health reasons, every male has to perform some military service.  In South Korea, for example, every male has to serve for at least two years in the military though some serve in the military in non-soldiering capacities.

--

from u4d1 : Four criteria of functionality, simplicity, time-testedness, and interconnectivity are mentioned in the text for the seven futuring tools which are Trend Extrapolation, the Delphi Technique, Morphological Analysis, the Crawford Slip Method, Scenario Planning, Cross-Impact Analysis, and Futuring Trees.
u10d1:  Post a reflection on the course material and its application to real environments. What do you perceive to be the strengths and weaknesses of the futuring process?.
One idea that should be considered concerning looking into the future is that if someone really had the ability to see the future, or if they could ride in H.G. Well's Time Machine, and if they saw something horrible, catastrophic, or tragic -- as far as human occurances are concerned -- then they would be tormented by the fact that nothing could be done to alter the foreseen future, otherwise, if they could change the course of events to prevent the horrible foreseen future, then what they saw was not the future. Futuring can also involve exploring possible, multiple future scenarios (I just returned from seeing a movie, The Butterfly Effect, which explores the idea of multiple histories on a personal level).  It might be best, as mentioned in the scenario building and futuring tree sections, to suggest possible futures and then do what needs to be done to achieve the desired future goal.
The course text describes seven futuring tools --  Trend Extrapolation, the Delphi Technique, Morphological Analysis, the Crawford Slip Method, Scenario Planning, Cross-Impact Analysis, and Futuring Trees -- which, to be effective, should satisfy the criteria of functionality, simplicity, time-testedness, and interconnectivity.  The future can be looked into by psychics, dreamers, visionaries, and artists and it can be planned by ordinary people and organizations using the futuring methods that we were exposed to during the unfolding of the information in this course.
The future will always be a mystery and unknowable but we can use futuring methods to plan for and affect a future partly of our own making.
Richard
Reference: 
Alexander, A. & Serfass R.  (1999).  Futuring Tools for Strategic Quality Planning in Education. Milwaukee, Wisconsin: Quality Press.
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nnto  acronym for "no need to open"
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PAPER (These are all of my ED 815 responses pasted together):
U1D1

Introduce yourself. Describe your current job or profession and you educational goals at Capella. Has your coursework been useful in your career up to this point?
Hello, my name is Richard Bloodworth.  For the past several years I have been teaching English in in foreign  countries ( Seoul, South Korea; Tokyo and Chiba, Japan; Prague, Czech Republic; Istanbul, Turkey; Xi'an and Shanghai, China; and now Taipei, Taiwan -- so PM to me could be AM to you and vice versa ).  Prior to the English teaching I was employed in mostly arts related activities having studied art and architecture.  I received a BFA degree from the University of Georgia.   I have lived mostly in Athens and Atlanta, GA in addition to the above mentioned cities and I have traveled around Europe and Asia.  
I am now teaching English at the American English School in Taipei, Taiwan.  I am pursuing a Master's in Professional Studies in Education. My previous courses at Capella were ED: 5004/5, 8111, 5006, 814, 7700, 7701.  The courses through Capella have all been useful up to this point as I plan on using them all for the integrative project at the end of the courses and afterwards as well.
Richard
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U1D1 Comment to Fredi
Hello, again.  I look forward to reading your thoughts in this course.  By the way, I'd like to read your ED814 paper if you can send it as an attachment to my email address.  I can send you mine too if you'd like.  My email address is RBloodworth99@yahoo.com.
Richard
U1D1 Comment to Karen
Hello Karen,
Since I studied art, majoring in drawing and painting, and having done a lot of artwork myself (portraits, architectural renderings, murals, illustrations) I am interested in your biographical profile and  I'd also like to see some of your illustrations.  Do you have any I could see online, either on a website or sent to my email address?  My email address is RBloodworth99@yahoo.com.
Richard
U1D1 Comment to Thurman
Hello Thurman,
I just saw, in a science museum, a demonstration of how nuclear energy is derived from Uranium.  Is that where your nuclear energy comes from?  One problem with nuclear energy is nuclear waste.  Do you think in the future there will be a way to make the waste not radioactive rather than just burying it waiting for the effects to diminish through half-life decomposition?  By the way, perhaps I could look this up, but why is radioactivity so dangerous?  What does it do to harm living organisms: does it change the atomic structures in the body (say from positive to negative charges) or does it burn like heat?  Just curious.
Richard
U1D1 Comment to Carolyn
Hello Carolyn,
Is that number 11 jersey that Garner is wearing in your Profile photograph from a gym in Texas or somewhere in China (or somewhere else)?  Just Curious.
Richard
---
U1D2

Identify current issues and/or trends impacting your professional environments. Do you believe that these issues or trends are lasting or temporary? What evidence can you cite to support your beliefs? Think carefully about these trends because you will continue to work with them throughout this course.
Technology is changing the world situation at a rapid pace in all aspects: educationally, socially, politically, environmentally, economically, culturally, etc.  The issue of technology is lasting in the sense that technology will always affect how life and educational processes are conducted, however,  new technologies are constantly being introduced so that one needs to constantly become acquainted with and trained in new technological techniques so in that sense the effects of technology are transitory or temporary.
In the educational field, one example of the new uses of technology is the use of distance learning using online instruction via the Internet.  In addition to technology, issues that impact the living and professional environments are the decentralization of all processes, globalization, and the democratization of society.
Thomas Heaney in Adult Education for Social Change: From Center Stage to the Wings and Back Again views adult education as participatory and as a tool for social change where educational progressivism is the modern approach to educating the public.  " 'Adult education turns out to be the most reliable instrument for social actionists' since it assures that any action undertaken would be authentically democratic" (Brookfield 1984).  Eduard Lindeman, as influenced by John Dewey (Democracy and Education), considers adult education to be intertwined with democracy, social action, and control by people over their daily decisions.  To Lindeman, adult education equals social change, a method to create good and productive citizens.  Even if education is viewed as a "great selector" rather than a "great equalizer" (p. 4),  each person can, as a result of education, find their niche, based on their abilities and merits, within a democratic society.   The concept of using the educational system to implement a direct democracy is closely connected with the ideas expressed by Heaney, Miles Horton, Paulo Freire, and Jack Mezirow since their approach is to empower the populace through education in order to create a democratic society.  It is necessary to have an educated public in order to have a direct democracy work efficiently so democracy is dependent the educational system to survive and prosper.  
My interest is in developing, by utilizing the educational system, a system of direct democracy which is basically having citizens vote directly on legislative issues rather than electing representatives who can, after elected, vote any way they choose. Direct democracy is a concept which began in ancient Athens, Greece where all citizens voted directly on legislative issues.  In the modern world, direct democracy was considered impractical to implement on a large scale but it is now possible with the advent of computer and Internet technologies.
References:
Dewey, John. (1944).  Democracy and Education. New York: Simon & Schuster Inc.
Heaney, Thomas. Adult Education for Social Change: From Center Stage to the Wings and Back Again.  (1996).  Retrieved April 5, 2004 from  http://www.nl.edu/ace/Resources/Documents/ERIC1.html
RESPONSES:
U1D2 Comment to Greg
I have heard of No Child Left Behind referred to often in these online courses.  Is there some online manifesto or document that you know of that describes the policies involved in this program?
Richard
U1D2 Comment to Karen
Anything new is viewed with conservative suspicion.  I like to think of the first wave of students in the online learning format as pioneers.  When everyone realizes its effectiveness as a learning technique then it will become as accepted as traditional classroom learning (though in conjunction with and as a supplement to traditional classroom learning).  There are some courses that would not be taken online such as portrait painting (though someone could study online the art history of portraits and formulas involved in portrait painting), violin playing, acting or drama, singing, etc. but theories and readings involved in these subjects could be taken online.
Richard
U1D2 Comment to Cheryl
I can relate to not being able to speak a language in a foreign country: it is similar to being a functional illiterate or worse in some ways since a functional illiterate can at least speak the language in the country in which he resides, he just can't read or write it.  Of course, being a teacher in a foreign country is a much different situation than what you are describing but I can relate to the frustration that the non-English speaking people that you referred to in your posting.  There should be translators available and English classes for those people.
Richard
U1D2 Comment to Lisa
Lisa,  I agree that online and distance learning is the wave of the future in this global information age in which we all reside.
Richard
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View the postings of at least three other learners who did not select the same topics as you and discover why they are interested in the topics they selected.
U1D3
Post the Web resources that you found discussing current issues/trends and annotate. 

http://www.ericfacility.net/ericdigests/ed410176.html.  This site involves global trends in civic education for democracy and explores the instruction of core concepts and comparative analyses of democratic systems worldwide and the development of participatory skills for the implementation of democratic processes.
http://www.civiced.org/articles_indonesia.html.  This site discusses global trends in civic education procedures and effectiveness of civic education as practiced in Indonesia.
http://www.bf.rmit.edu.au/kgeiselhart/e-_democracy_resources_.htm  This site by Steven Clift lists links and references to e-democracy and e-government.
http://faculty.washington.edu/stkerr/ethb94.htm This site is from the Handbook of Research on Educational Technology. This chapter, Toward a Sociology of Educational Technology is by Stephen T. Kerr of the University of Washington and describes the development and use of technology in education and its sociological implications.
http://ultibase.rmit.edu.au/Articles/may01/geiselhart1.htm In the article, Teaching Technology to Share, Karin Geiselhart discusses technology, education, and democracy in the information age.
RESPONSES:
U1D3 Comment to Lisa
These are informative websites on adult education. You might be familiar with this article but it has useful information concerning preparing adults as participating members of a democratic society:  
Heaney, Thomas. Adult Education for Social Change: From Center Stage to the Wings and Back Again.  (1996).  Retrieved April 5, 2004 from  http://www.nl.edu/ace/Resources/Documents/ERIC1.html

U1D3 Comment to Christy
These are some great sites on distance learning.  I like articles that list issues and then discuss each one under the headings.  They're much easier to read and assimilate in that form
Richard
U1D3 Comment to Carolyn
These are some informative web resources for e-learning and higher education.
Richard
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U1D1 Response to All
I look forward to reading all of your comments as the course progresses and am "looking forward" to exploring concepts about the future with you all.
Richard
U1D1 response to JB.
In today's world your question is valid since we can be anywhere in the world and be involved in online courses such as these courses but, yes, I am teaching in Taipei, Taiwan now.
Richard
U1D2 from JB
Hello Richard,

I think that your desire to build a system of direct democracy so citizens can vote directly on legislative issues rather than electing representatives who has great potential! Are you actively involved in politics or voter registration now?
from Howard
Richard, you made some interesting comments about technology and direct democracy. In Washington State recently, Internet voting was recently defeated in the legislature because of the concern over fraud. I believe this is a temporary setback and is something we will be doing soon. I am not sure about direct deo9mocracy -- what would happen to all those lobbyists :-)
from Thurm
Richard,your concept is very interesting,because I believe that all tax payers should have the ability to vote on issues concerning their well being.
U1D2 Response to Thurm, JB, and Howard
I think some version of what I am thinking of will happen in the future since, as Thurm mentions, the people should determine their own future and government which is, after all,  the meaning of democracy.  To JB: I am involved in politics to the extent that I am researching and writing on this subject and I vote myself.  To Howard: there is always resistence and skepticism to new ideas (though beginning 2500 years ago, democracy can hardly be considered a new idea).  The same people who are worried about Internet fraud for voting are probably unconcerned about online banking transactions, which is how practically all funds are transferred nowadays, and the same type of technology can be used in Internet voting.  Also, perhaps the legislators feel that their jobs and roles are threatened but my idea involves adding direct democracy to the representative legislatures and not replacing them completely.  As for the lobbyists, maybe they can look for new work: perhaps the Mafia would have some available positions for them.  
Richard
--
U2D1
As I mentioned in Unit 1, technology is changing the world situation at a rapid pace in all aspects: educationally, socially, politically, environmentally, economically, and culturally.   In the educational field, one example of the new uses of technology is the use of distance learning using online instruction via the Internet.  In addition to technology, issues that impact the living and professional environments are the decentralization of all processes, globalization, and the democratization of society.  My interest is in developing, by utilizing the educational system, a system of direct democracy which is basically having citizens vote directly on legislative issues rather than only electing representatives who can, after elected, vote any way they choose.  The implementation of a direct democracy was considered impractical, or not possible, on a large scale, but now with the advent of computer and Internet technology it is feasible.

Discussion 2.2:

U2D2
Describe the current structure of the school or other organization with which you are most familiar, and discuss why the emerging issues you have identified in Discussion 2.1 will become your organization's greatest challenges (individual post).
One challenge in the implementation of a direct democracy is the method or curriculum for dispensing information in cultural institutions such as schools.
Following is a possible curriculum for the implementation of direct democracy:
The social studies and political science classes would introduce, early in the development of the curriculum -- during the elementary school years -- the first concepts of democracy as government based on the will of and for the good of the people or society.  The curriculum would eventually include the history of democracy beginning with ancient Athens, Greece (and before) and its present forms of use today in various countries and institutions and studies of its various methods of execution.  Also included in the course curriculum would be computer skills courses since thorough knowledge of computer and Internet usage would be needed to implement and sustain the continuing use of a direct democracy.  Once the system is establablished and the procedures for its execution are in place and all of the necessary legislation is passed to secure its structure, procedural content, and continuing existence, the voters, or potential voters (who perhaps would require secured registration, training, and perhaps certification to qualify to vote), would learn how to research and read about issues to be voted on at the local, state, and national levels.  Computer tutorials could also be developed to teach the learners how this is done and even provide some practice voting sessions and hypothetical situations to which they can respond.
After, and even before and during the discussion and implementation of a direct democracy system, the most important aspect of creating a system whereby the information and training necessary to maintain a direct democracy is to establish a curriculum, including the methods, institutions, and locations to dispense that information.  The information could be dispensed in schools, both public and private, in home schooling situations, on the Internet, in books and magazines, and through commercial, governmental, and community organizations.  The most wide-ranging method of disseminating this information would be through the public school system and colleges and universities.
The information could begin at home with the parents reading to their children with early learner books. The curriculum could begin with the pre-kindergarten students by having the students vote for what they like by placing balls into baskets and by showing flash cards showing the most basic ideas involved about the concept of democracy.  The curriculum could progress up through the school system through the school system: through kindergarten, elementary, junior high school, high school, then through colleges and universities as well as specialized schools, post-secondary institutions, and other forms of adult education.
Richard
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U2D1 Comment to Greg
I taught English to college students in China (Xi'an) and in Turkey (Istanbul), and though the cultures were different, it is the level I enjoyed being involved with the most and want to continue with later.  The classes I have now, though I enjoy some aspects of them, are just what was available at the time I was looking here in Taiwan.  I'm putting a lot of effort into the classes but I'll be glad when they're over.  Some people would prefer teaching children so there I think there will always be a supply of teachers for them.  I think you might enjoy the college level but some of that depends on the subject being taught and the interest level of the students (and with college level the interest level is generally high whereas that is not always the case with children).
Richard
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U2D1 response to Carolyn
Carolyn:  
Though the process can begin in part before that time, the plan I am thinking of might take a generation of time to fully implement (and then it would continue to grow and evolve beyond that) which sounds like a long time compared to human life span but is in fact a short time in historical perspective (and unnoticeable in the scale of an astronomical or a geological timeline). For now, this method can be done in conjunction with traditional paper ballots but in a generation of time people will be as familiar computers and Internet technology as your father is now with telephones (or typewriters and vinyl records -- remember those?).
Concerning how to train the public and inform them on the issues to be voted on,  I'll include some of those ideas in a future posting. 
Richard
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U2D2 response to Howard
Howard,  I am writing up a curriculum and scenario with some details of what actually would occur within the school(s) to implement this concept and I will post it later.
Richard
---
Howard,
This is a possible curriculum for introducing the concept of direct democracy through the educational system.  Later I can develop each yearly level into more detailed curricula or syllabi.
A CURRICULUM for the implementation of direct democracy:
The social studies and political science classes would introduce, early in the development of the curriculum -- during the elementary school years -- the first concepts of democracy as government based on the will of and for the good of the people or society.  The curriculum would eventually include the history of democracy beginning with ancient Athens, Greece (and before) and its present forms of use today in various countries and institutions and studies of its various methods of execution.  Also included in the course curriculum would be computer skills courses since thorough knowledge of computer and Internet usage would be needed to implement and sustain the continuing use of a direct democracy.  Once the system is establablished and the procedures for its execution are in place and all of the necessary legislation is passed to secure its structure, procedural content, and continuing existence, the voters, or potential voters (who perhaps would require secured registration, training, and perhaps certification to qualify to vote), would learn how to research and read about issues to be voted on at the local, state, and national levels.  Computer tutorials could also be developed to teach the learners how this is done and even provide some practice voting sessions and hypothetical situations to which they can respond.
After, and even before and during the discussion and implementation of a direct democracy system, the most important aspect of creating a system whereby the information and training necessary to maintain a direct democracy is to establish a curriculum, including the methods, institutions, and locations to dispense that information.  The information could be dispensed in schools, both public and private, in home schooling situations, on the Internet, in books and magazines, and through commercial, governmental, and community organizations.  The most wide-ranging method of disseminating this information would be through the public school system and colleges and universities.
The information could begin at home with the parents reading to their children with early learner books. The curriculum could begin with the pre-kindergarten students by having the students vote for what they like by placing balls into baskets and by showing flash cards showing the most basic ideas involved about the concept of democracy.  The curriculum could progress up through the school system through the school system: through kindergarten, elementary, junior high school, high school, then through colleges and universities as well as specialized schools, post-secondary institutions, and other forms of adult education.
---
Howard,
This is a possible curriculum for introducing the concept of direct democracy through the educational system.  Later I can develop each yearly level into more detailed curricula or syllabi.
---
Following is a possible curriculum that could be revised, amended, and expanded to accommodate changing instructional requirements and changing new technology as well as changing and evolving informational content:
Pre-kindergarten:   Flash cards with pictures depicting basic concepts and people and places associated with democracy.  Voting by raising hands, clapping, shouting, or placing balls in a basket to show what they like as shown from pictures of the objects (such as apples, cake, hamburgers, lemons, music, etc.) 
Kindergarten:     Vote by placing softball size balls in a container.  Flash cards with pictures and words of basic concepts of democracy.
First grade:     Vote by placing ping pong balls in a container. Vote by writing  letters.  Flash cards with words of leaders of history, places and events associated with democracy.  Elect students for class duties for each student such as erasing the board, closing the windows, turning off lights, sweeping, etc.  These duties can be rotated monthly.
Second grade:  Vote by writing letters, numbers, and then names.
Third grade:  Vote by writing names of the students and of objects voted on.  For instance, for the question What do you like? the students write what they like such as "ice cream", etc.  Eventually, sentences are used.
Fourth grade:  Vote for class officers and class duties. Students write sentences on what they want to vote for and why.  Read political news for children in Weekly Reader, Yahoo Kids' page, etc.  Draw pictures and write paragraphs about democracy in the U.S.
Fifth grade:  Vote for class officers and class duties.  Voting by printed forms or writing names of people or objects voted on.  Introduction of the early history of democracy, around 500B.C. in Athens, Greece. Draw pictures about fora in ancient Greece.  Read Political news in Weekly Reader, Yahoo Kids' news, some newspapers and read about the history and practices of democracy in the students' social studies text books.
Sixth grade:   Vote for class officers with ballots.  Introduction to computers, software, using the Internet for searching and researching information, introduction to Internet for voting.  Write essays and draw pictures about democracy, history related to democracy, and political topics in the U.S. and the world.
Seventh grade:  Vote for class officers and duties with computer and Internet technology.  Study issues to be voted on. Vote for issues of the past.  Vote for some current issues. Write essays on democracy, history, political topics, current invents, and new ideas of how society should be constructed.  Read the Declaration of Independence and a summarized version of the United States Constitution.  Memorize some quotations associated with democracy.
Eighth grade: Polical Science and History readings and discussions about direct democracy.  Magazine articles, newspaper articles, and Internet searches about direct democracy.  Find an international pen pal to discuss direct democracy with via the Internet.
Ninth grade:  High school clubs established: Democracy Club; Political Science Club; Political Philosophy; clubs for Democrats, Republicans, Green Party, Independents, etc. Develop Internet surveys to find public opinion on various topics.  Find books and articles about direct democracy and write reports on them.
Tenth grade:   Civics discussion of the responsibilities of the voting citizens.  U. S. History and Democracy. U.S. Constitution, Declaration of Independence. Terminology relevant to democracy explored, direct democracy explained, duties and responsibilities of the voters. Computer voting Tutorial I.
Eleventh grade:   Learn to vote via the computer and Internet. World History of Democracy. Discussion and essays about forms of government throughout history. Continue corresponding with your international pen pal and ask your pen pal to find an additional join your correspondence group to have three way discussions.   Find one additional penpal to correspond with via the Internet and discuss all current event topics including direct democracy.   Summarized readings of Plato's Republic and the Politics by Aristotle.  Read and write essays on Democracy and Education by John Dewey and the Social Contract by Jean Jacques Rousseau.   Computer voting Tutorial II.
Twelfth grade:  Vote via the Internet. Vote on current and historical national and international issues.  Direct democracy procedures examined, explained, discussed.  Political Philosophy and duties of and preparation for the voting public. Discussions comparing representative and direct democracy, totalitarianism, Marxism, capitalism, and socialism.  Read and write essays on:  Direct Democracy: The Politics of Initiative, Referendum, and Recall by Thomas Cronin;  Direct Democracy in Switzerland by Gregory Fossedal;  Elections in Cyberspace by Anthony Corrado and Charles Firestone and more essays on Democracy and Education by John Dewey.  Computer Voting Tutorial III.
----
Online tutorials:
The history of democracy
The philosophy of democracy
Glossary of terminology related to democracy and government
Naigating the computer and Internet for online voting
Computer Voting Tutorial I, II, III
Voting on Referendums, Initiatives, Elections for representatives, and Recalls
Preparation for certificate for a voting member of the Public Assembly
Writing and submitting legislation
Links, resources, publications, and organizations concerning direct democracy
Technical skills for the use of the computer and the Internet related to direct democracy

Below are listed university, post-secondary, adult, online courses, some of which are required, in addition to taking the certificate exams, to become a voting member of the (newly created) public legislature or Public Assembly.  One certificate is for the local level, one for the state level, and one for the national level (laws and and an amendment would need to be enacted to create such a voting body).  The certificate would require at least a high school education or a recognized equivalent, for the person to be a registered voter,  All registered voters are able to vote in initiatives, referendums, elections, and recalls but the Public Legislature would require a licensed certificate, similar to obtaining a driver's license or a specialist's license, renewable periodically with minor exams, to become a non-elected member of the Third House of Congress, which will count for 1/3 of the votes of the United States Congress.

University, college, online, and adult courses (with majors in political science with an emphasis on direct democracy and related subjects, some required for a voting certificate):

The growth and development of direct democracy
Writing and submitting legislatives bills for a direct democracy
Topics covered in the voting certificate exams
Designing instructional material for direct democracy
The procedures for voting in a direct democracy
Political philosophy and direct democracy
The use of direct democracy in Switzerland
Procedures and precedents for amending the U.S.Constitution
The world history and use of direct democracy
The use of direct democracy in governments and organizations worldwide
Referendum, Intiative, Election, and Recall
Methods of informing the public on legislative and di d issues
Security issues of online voting
The governmental structure for direct democracy
Theories and use of democracy

University, advanced and adult learner reading list for courses in direct democracy:

Adult Education for Social Change: From Center Stage to the Wings and Back Again (1996) by Thomas Heaney.
The Americans: The Democratic Experience (1974) by Boorstin, Daniel J. Boorstin.
America's Crisis: The Direct Democracy and Direct Education Solution (2000) by D. B. Jeffs and V. Hugo.
Aristotle and Xenophon on Democracy and Oligarchy (1975) by J. M. Moore.
Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project (2001) by the California Institute of Technology and The Massachusetts Institute of Technology Corporation.
Citizens As Legislators: Direct Democracy in the United States (1998) by Bowler, S., Donovan, T. & Tolbert, C.
Civic Participation and Community Action Sourcebook: A Resource for Adult Educators by A. Nash.
Collected Writings of Thomas Jefferson.
A Constitution of Direct Democracy : Pure Democracy and the Governance of the Future ~ Locally and Globally (2000) by Michael Noah Mautner.
The Cultural Creatives: How 50 Million People are Changing the World (2000) by S.R. Anderson & P. Ray.
The Communicative Ethics Controversy (1990) by S. Benhabib and F. Dallmayr.
Democracy: Real and Ideal, Discourse Ethics and Radical Politics (1999) by Ricardo Blaug.
Demanding Choices: Opinion, Voting, and Direct Democracy (2001) by Bowler, S, & Donovan, T.
Democracy and Education: An Introduction to the Philosophy of Education (1997) by John Dewey.
Democracy and Education and Prospects for Democracy (1994) by N. Chomsky.
Democracy, Citizenship and the Global City (2000) by E. F. Isin.
Democracy in America (2000) by Alexis de Tocqueville. 
Democracy in the Digital Age : Challenges to Political Life in Cyberspace (2000) by Anthony G. Wilhelm.
Developing e-Citizens and e-Consumers, an Irish e-Commerce Case Study (2001) by John MacNamara.
Direct Democracy: The Politics of Initiative, Referendum & Recall (1999) by Thomas E. Cronin. 
Direct Democracy in Switzerland (2002) by Gregory A. Fossedal.
Direct Democracy or Representative Government?: Dispelling the Populist Myth (2000) by John Haskell.
The Economist: A better way to vote: Why letting the people themselves take the decisions is the logical next step for the West (1993) by Brian Needham.
Electronic Democracy: Using the Internet to Transform American Politics (2002) by Browning, G. & Powell, A.C.
Electronic Media and Technoculture (2000) by John Thornton Caldwell.
E-Democracy, E-Governance, and Public Net-Work (2003) by Steven Clift.
Elections in Cyberspace:  Toward a New Era in American Politics (1997) A. Corrado & C.M. Firestone.
E-democracy in Practice: Swedish Experiences of a New Political Tool (2001) by T. Rosen.
Electronic Voting: Benefits and Risks (2002) by Russell Smith.
Electronic Voting -- Evaluating the Threat (1993) by M. I. Shamos.
Essay Concerning Human Understanding and Two Treatises of Government by John Locke.
E-topia (2000) by William J. Mitchell.
The Examined Life (2000) by Stanley Rosen.
The Future of Teledemocracy (2000) by T. Becker & C.D. Slaton.
The Handbook of Qualitative Research (2000) by J. Frow & M. Morris, M. (2000).  
Leviathan (1998) by Thomas Hobbes.
Megatrends 2000 (1996) by J. Naisbitt and Aburdene P.
The New Challenge of Direct Democracy (1997) by Ian Budge.
New Schools for a New Century (1997) by Diane Ravitch and Joseph P. Viteritti.
Political Parties and Constitutional Government: Remaking American Democracy (1999) by S. M. Milkis. 
The Prince by Niccolo Machiavelli.
Republic (1998) by Plato.
Rethinking Democracy and Education: Towards an Education of Deliberative Citizens (2000) by T. Englund.
The Social Contract by Jean-Jacques Rousseau.
The Spirit of Laws by Montesquieu.
Stealing the Initiative: How State Government Responds to Direct Democracy (2000) by E. R. Gerber, A. Lupia, M. D. McCubbins & D. R. Kiewiet.
Technoscience and Cyberculture (1996) by S. Aronowitz, B. Martinsons, M. Menser, and J. Rich.
The Third Wave (1984) by Alvin Toffler.
United States Constitution, the Declaration of Independence, the Federalist Papers.
Virtual Environmental Citizenship: Web-Based Public Participation in Rulemaking in the U.S. (2003) by Schlosberg, D. 
The World in 2020: Power, Culture, and Prosperity (1994) by Hamish McRae.

Conclusion:

Democracy was discussed by Socrates and written about by Plato in Republic, Aristotle in Politics, Machiavelli in The Prince, Locke in Essay Concerning Human Understanding and Two Treatises of Government, Montesquieu in The Spirit of Laws, Hobbes in Leviathan, Rousseau in The Social Contract, and Thomas Jefferson in his writings. Democracy was first used in Athens, Greece before 500 B.C., where each citizen voted directly on all legislative issues, thereby being a true democracy. Direct participatory democracy was considered impractical before now, primarily because there was no technology to supply it. Now, with computer and Internet technology, there is.

Computer and Internet technology can supply the forum for the voting of citizens to occur and schools and community and governmental organizations can supply the knowledge, information, and training for the implementation and continuing use of a direct democracy.

Appendix:

A Proposal for Creating the Third House of Congress: the Public Assembly
for the Creation of a National Democracy in the United States of America
R. Bloodworth

Phase 1  (3 to 10 years):

Debate and Introduction to the Concept
Discussions and committees formed
Brain storming and think tank groups developed
Petitions and letters, email, talk shows, TV, radio campaigns
Public education of the concept
Readings and discussions in schools and universities about democracy
Concepts related to direct democracy discussed and read about in schools
Writers and Artists commissioned
Software conceptualizing
Books and magazine articles are printed on the subject
Funding and economic issues are discussed
Funds raised
A suggestion hotline is established
An official website is created

Phase 2  (2 years):

Organizing and structuring of the voting methods and procedures
Curriculum developed for public schools and universities
Development of the Government Structure
Legal Documents developed
Constitutional amendment first draft written
various committees appointed
Local referendums held

Phase 3  (3 years):

All of the above activities continue (website, etc.)
Trial period when the procedures are developed, refined and the first results used
as an opinion polling collection device.
Educating the public on the procedures involved
Curriculum about direct democracy initiated for public schools and universities
First trials are done locally, first city, then county, then state, then national levels
During this period suggestions and changes are made
Software is developed
Security issues addressed
Computer and software bugs are worked out
Initial voting centers are established, these can be adjacent to post offices
Paricipants (intial voters) are assigned temporary voter registration numbers and
passwords, etc. chosen
The voter registration numbers are assigned through the voting centers in a way
similar to registering to vote and passwords are chosen.
(Voters are given up to 3 days to “edit or change” their submissions)

Phase 4  (3 years):

Voting Centers are established nationwide
Voter registration numbers are established partly containing
a social security number.
Voting Centers have the bills and plans to be voted on in booklet form
and posted on the walls and these bills and plans are also
available online for perusal and study.
The voter registration numbers are assigned through the voting
centers in a way similar to registering to vote and
passwords are chosen.
(Voters are given up to 3 days to “edit or
change” their submissions)
The opinion poll collection system continues using the online
voting system
Strict felony laws against Internet abuse or direct voting fraud
with severe penalties and punishments are passed.

Phase 5  (Continuing):

Voters are able to connect to the voting system via the
Internet with their own computers, or continue to vote through
the Voting Centers, and become voting members of the
3rd House of Congress, the Public Assembly according
to U.S. federal law and also of state, county, and city
governments as laws of each state allow.
In the future, computers will be as standard as telephones and everyone
with a telephone will have a computer and the United States
government will become a truly participatory and
democratic government.

DEMOCRACY BIBLIOGRAPHY
Aronowitz, S., Martinsons, B., Menser, M., and Rich, J. (1996). Technoscience and Cyberculture.  New York and London: Routledge.

Becker, T. & Slaton, C.D.  (2000).  The Future of Teledemocracy.  Praeger Publishers.

Benhabib, S., and Dallmayr, F. (1990). The Communicative Ethics Controversy. London: The MIT Press.

Blaug, Ricardo (1999). Democracy: Real and Ideal, Discourse Ethics and Radical Politics. Albany, New York: State University of New York Press.

Bowler, S., Donovan, T. & Tolbert, C. (1998).  Citizens As Legislators: Direct Democracy in the United States.  Columbus, OH: Ohio State University Press.

Bowler, S, & Donovan, T. (2001).   Demanding Choices: Opinion, Voting, and Direct Democracy.  Ann Arbour, MI: University of Michigan Press.

Browning, G. & Powell, A.C. (2002).  Electronic Democracy: Using the Internet to Transform American Politics. Cyberage Books.

Budge, Ian. (1997).   The New Challenge of Direct Democracy.  Polity Press. 

Bushell, Sue. (2003).  Where to Now for E-Voting?  Retrieved January. 24, 2004 from:  http://www.cio.com.au/index.php?id=405941257&eid=-601

Caldwell, John Thornton. (2000). Electronic Media and Technoculture. New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press.

Castells. Information Technology, Globalization, and Social Development

Chomsky, N. (1994). Democracy and Education. Retrieved January 24, 2004 from  http://www.zmag.org/chomsky/talks/9410-education.html

Corrado, A. & Firestone, C.M.  (1997).  Elections in Cyberspace:  Toward a New Era in American Politics.   Aspen, CO: Aspen Institute Publications Office.

Cronin, Thomas E. (1999).  Direct Democracy: The Politics of Initiative, Referendum & Recall. Cambridge, MA and London: Harvard University Press.
Becker, T. & Slaton, C.D.  (2000).  The Future of Teledemocracy.  New York: Praeger Publishers.

Dewey, John.  (1997).  Democracy and Education: An Introduction to the Philosophy of Education.  New York: Free Press, Simon & Schuster.

Fossedal, Gregory A. (2002).  Direct Democracy in Switzerland. Transaction Publications.
  
Gerber, E. R., Lupia, A., McCubbins, M.D. & Kiewiet, D.R. (2000). Stealing the Initiative: How State Government Responds to Direct Democracy. Prentice Hall.

Haskell, John. (2000).  Direct Democracy or Representative Government?: Dispelling the Populist Myth.  Boulder, CO: Westview Press.

Heaney, Thomas. Adult Education for Social Change: From Center Stage to the Wings and Back Again.  (1996).  Retrieved on January 15, 2004 from  http://www.nl.edu/ace/Resources/Documents/ERIC1.html

Isin, Engin F. (2000).  Democracy, Citizenship and the Global City.  New York and London: Routledge.

Lebihan, Rachel. (2003). Arm twisting to hinder home electronic voting.  Retrieved on October 24, 2003 from http://www.zdnet.com.au/newstech/communications/story/0,2000048620,20265293,00.htm

MacNamara, O'Donnell.  Developing e-Citizens and e-Consumers, an Irish e-Commerce Case Study.   http://66.218.71.225/search/cache?p=The+E-citizen.+Instructional+Technology.,+Lee,+John+K.++&sub=Search&ei=UTF-8&url=fe_aPyZrSDAJ:www.efmd.be/learninggroups/chapter/eisb2001proceedings/pdfs/MacNamara%2520%2520O%27Donnell%2520.pdf 

Mautner, Michael Noah. (2000).  A Constitution of Direct Democracy : Pure Democracy and the Governance of the Future ~ Locally and Globally.  Legacy Books.

McRae, Hamish.  (1994).  The World in 2020: Power, Culture, and Prosperity.  Boston: Harvard Business School Press.

Mitchell, William J. (2000). E-topia. London: The MIT Press.
Patrick. (2003).  Recent Email from a Swiss Citizen.  Retrieved on January 17, 2004 from http://www.vote.org/swiss.htm

Plato. (1998). Republic. New York: Oxford University Press.

Rousseau, Jean-Jacques. (1999). The Social Contract. New York: Oxford University Press.

Salant, P. & Dillman, D.  (1994).  How to Conduct Your Own Survey.  New York:  John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Shamos, M.I.  (1993). Electronic Voting -- Evaluating the Threat.  Retrieved October 15, 2003 from  http://www.cpsr.org/conferences/cfp93/shamos.html
Smith, Russell. Electronic Voting: Benefits and Risks. (2002).  Retrieved October 24, 2003 from  http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/tandi/ti224.pdf Stirner, M. (1967). The False Principle of our Education, or, Humanism and Reform. Colorado Springs: Ralph Melees Publisher.
Wilhelm, Anthony G. (2000).  Democracy in the Digital Age : Challenges to Political Life in Cyberspace.  New York and London: Routledge.

DEMOCRACY WEBSITES:
http://www.developmentgateway.org/node/130619/?page_id=3647   (worldwide egovernment)                                                         
http://thomas.loc.gov/    ( the proceedings of the U.S. Congress and egovernment development)
http://egov.mit.gov.in/   (egovernment in India)
http://www.abc.net.au/ola/citizen/interdemoc/republic.htm
http://www.veritasdigital.com/ad_online/participatory.html
http://www.cpsu.org.uk/downloads/Modernising%20Background.pdf
http://www.publicus.net/ebook/
http://www.mail-archive.com/do-wire@tc.umn.edu/msg00045.html
http://policy.womenspace.ca/activities/brainstorm/policy/
http://www.analysphere.com/21Oct00/democracy.htm
http://www.statskontoret.se/gol-democracy/links/Popular/
http://www.itac.ca/client/ITAC/ITAC_UW_MainEngine.nsf/object/Imperative/$file/Agnew.pdf
http://www.one2one.co.nz/edemocracy.html
http://www.politics.tcd.ie/courses/undergrad/bcc/portal/egovernance.html
http://www.internetnz.net.nz/members/lists/isocnz-council-tidbits/2000-August/000012.html
http://www.flaxroots.net.nz/2000/papers/2000-PaulHughes.html
http://www.context.co.nz:8080/newsItems/viewDepartment$Participatory+Democracy
http://langue.hyper.chubu.ac.jp/jalt/pub/tlt/00/dec/scott.html
http://www.diverdiver.com/2003_03_07_diverdiver_archive.html
http://www.democracy-online.org/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A8287-2003Feb26
http://lists.essential.org/1995/info-policy-notes/msg00137.html
http://mondediplo.com/1998/12/03bensaid    (third way government)
http://www.jhu.edu/news_info/news/topic/politics.html    (online voting)
http://lone-eagles.com/democracy.htm  (list of related links and sources)
http://www.democracy-online.org/ (another list of related links and sources)
http://egov.mit.gov.in/  (egovernment development in India)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/ancient/greeks/greekdemocracy_01.shtml
http://www.bris.ac.uk/Depts/Philosophy/UG/ugunits0102/rousseau.html
http://www.wabash.edu/Rousseau/WorksonWeb.html
http://www.sosig.ac.uk/roads/subject-listing/World-cat/philpol.html
http://www.bu.edu/wcp/Papers/Poli/PoliFeld.htm
http://www.bu.edu/wcp/MainPoli.htm
http://www.bu.edu/wcp/Papers/Poli/PoliBuch.htm
http://oregonstate.edu/instruct/phl302/texts/locke/locke2/2nd-contents.html
http://www.sosig.ac.uk/roads/subject-listing/World-cat/demgovt.html
http://www.ancientworlds.net/aw/Post/32871
http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/class/300/300pix/300.ideas.html
http://teachers.ausd.net/antilla/philolinks.html
http://plato.stanford.edu
http://www.rep.routledge.com/index.html
http://www.bris.ac.uk/Depts/Philosophy/Dept/journals.html
http://www.bris.ac.uk/DeptsPhilosophy/Dept/Links.htm
http://www.bris.ac.uk/Depts/Philosophy/VL/index.html
http://web.mit.edu/polisci/www/research/goodness.html
http://etext.virginia.edu/jefferson/quotations/jeff0600.htm
http://www.anova.org/
http://www.developmentgateway.org/node/130619/?page_id=3647 
http://www.pdemokracie.ecn.cz/cs/doc/Statut-ang.doc
http://edemocracy.meetup.com/members/878
http://dmoz.org/Society/Politics/Democracy/Direct_Democracy/
http://www.dominion-web.com/directory/Top/Society/Politics/Democracy/Direct_Democracy
http://www.free-project.org/connect/links/
http://www.election.com/
http://www.votehere.net/
http://www.lib.ied.edu.hk/edarticle/civic.htm
http://edu.uwe.ac.uk/cred/bibliographic/papers.asp
http://www.egov.vic.gov.au/Research/ElectronicDemocracy/voting.htm
http://www.louiseferguson.com/resources/evoting.htm

ADD THESE!!:
http://web.mit.edu/voting/
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/nr/2001/voting2.html
--
U2D2 comment to Liston
I think the Army, or the military, can show to prospective members the advantages or possibilities of a military career with all of the diversity that the military entails.  I have said that the military is not only soldiers but is instead like a city with doctors, scientists, cooks, engineers, etc.  I think that it was discovered during the Vietnam War that a mandatory draft does not produce a high quality military whereas a voluntary system does.  Once the recruits are on board then the new technological methods of instruction and training can be employed.
Richard
--
U2D2 Comment to Cheryl
I am wondering why some of the students you referred to do not want to learn English if they are in Georgia, in the United States  (when I mentioned translators, I was referring to access to translators --or someone who spoke their language -- for consultation, etc., not one in every classroom).  Is their language Spanish (finding  Spanish translators there would not be so difficult to accomplish) or do you have other language speakers too?  
Richard
--
U2 Scuttlebutt
I am putting this in this area because this areas are probably not referred to in the course syllabus.
Although I know it is not scientific, in exploring the future one area that can not be overlooked is the paranormal. In Asia, on many street corners and in some areas entire sections of a street, there are fortune tellers who reveal or look into a person's future for a fee.  They can use tarot cards, palm reading, dreams, thoughts, and numerology to look into the future. Some use crystal balls, interpret prohets or psychics' (such as Nostradamas) enigmatic predictions, and some people might use witchcraft, Ouiji Boards, seances, etc.  People also refer to horoscopes to discover the future or make decisions about the future.  In the religious approach, people can also pray to have an affect on the future.  People can also use superstitious devices such as holding a lucking charm or not engaging in some potentially inauspicious superstitious activities. There are also more random approaches to affecting the future such as gambling or throwing dice.  And then there are weather forecasters.
Though many people do not believe in some of these activities, they do have an affect on the future since some people (even some presidents and world leaders) base some of their decisions about the future on these methods.
Other events or ideas that affect the future are: technology, social movements, religion, attitudes, wars, the economy, health or disease, environmental conditions, and natural and man-made conditions and catastrophes to name a few.
Richard
--
Millennium Technology Prize, Tim Berners-Lee
http://www.technologyawards.org/index.php?technologyawards=47853a0b861a0fd6ea984327de55c038&article_id=3932
---
U2D2 Comment to Lisa
I think your statement concerning your school "that we've long been aggressive in recruiting disabled students to our campus" is admirable.  Someone might be disabled in some areas, perhaps physically, yet they could excel in other areas and in those areas they can become valuable to themselves and to society.
Richard
--
Posted U3D1
U3D1 Vignette about the Future

Write a short paper (one to two pages) that summarizes your selected vignette. Include the following: (a) why you selected this particular vignette; (b) how this vignette relates to each of your environments; (c) a review of the questions presented in the vignette, as well as any question you might have added; (d) a review of the "provocative ideas," as well as additional ideas you might have identified in your Web search; (e) a review of how these "provocative ideas" relate to the environmental scans you carried out in Unit 2.

Vignette in the Future

From The Revolution Begins with You:

This vignette imagines a rebel superintendent in Arizona in the year 2010 expressing her opinion and approach at a teachers' meeting:

"I'm glad to be here today," she begins. "I have the rules and regulations of this school district in my hand." She uncovers the object on the table and begins feeding the sheets into a paper shredder.

"Nothing will stand in the way of learning in this community," she continues. "Before you utter the first 'but,' know that I am prepared to march with you from the school board to the state capitol to Washington to get you what you need, and we will take parents and neighbors with us. If I could give you money today, I would. What I can give you is the authority to start a revolution in your classroom, in every classroom and school, in this community."

"Name a social challenge, and there is a corresponding expectation that public schools will respond: violence, teen pregnancy, public health issues, and religious intolerance. Public schools are asked to address all these controversial issues and more in an increasingly transparent world where all decisions are subject to public scrutiny".

I prefer the term and concept of evolution, rather than revolution, when changes are involved, especially social changes such as changes in the educational system. When change is to occur, a slow and natural growth is always the preferred method rather than a sudden, radical change of events and values, which usually only creates more problems of a different sort (witness the problems that are occurring now and that will continue to occur in Iraq, for example). To disagree with policies and react by destroying documents or, worse, by resorting to violence is usually an uncivilized way of expressing disagreement though at times there can be justification for civil disobedience as was the case with the Boston Tea Party or certain civil rights or anti-war protests especially during the 1960s. Also, sometimes expressing disagreement by following the prescribed channels of procedure is nonproductive or ineffective since those channels are often devised so that no or little change can actually take place and this is particularly true in highly bureaucratic and centralized societies. 

There is the possibility now for revolutionary educational reform to occur in Iraq but with the infrastructure and public morale being destroyed daily it would be almost impossible to implement anything such as a new educational system at the present time. First their immediate biological needs would have to be satisfied and the infrastructure built or rebuilt, developed, and continued and then the processes of the educational system could be attended to. All of these processes would need to be considered simultaneously, not one after the other, but the basic needs (in the order of most to least essential of Maslow's hiearchy of needs: physiological, safety, belonging, esteem, and self-actualization) are the most essential of the needs that should be filled. Students in the United States or developed countries might have a fear or dislike of some aspects of school or of taking tests and so on but in Iraq the students and teachers have the additional fear of school for the reason that a bomb could explode there (or anywhere). The expressed and hidden agenda of introducing a new educational system might be to promote democracy and equality in Iraq (which was originally Mesopotamia -- the Cradle of Civilization) and the Middle East but some Islamic fundamentalists think that the hidden agenda is to defeat Islam and replace it with Christianity, making the Iraq War (of 2002 to the present) to them a modern day Crusades. 

[In "Strategies of Change" Steven Vago states that planned social change, or social planning, consists of three components: targets, agents, and methods. Targets are the intended recipients of change, agents are the initiators or instigators of the change processes, and methods are how the goals of the change processes are implemented and, if successful, achieved. Change agents influence, promote, and implement innovation. Change methods comprise three broad categories according to Vago. The first are empirical-rational strategies which assume that people are rational and follow their mutually beneficial self-interests. The second are normative-reeducative strategies which state that people must change from antiquated ways to new ones. The third are power-coercive strategies which apply pressure using economic, moral, political, or even physical power or force. I think the empirical-rational should be the first attempted method in all cases with the others being resorted to only if it is determined that, for some reason, the empirical-rational is not effective in a particular situation. Of the three components of social change procedures -- targets, agents, and methods -- the issue of ethics is mostly concerned with the methods used by the agents to affect change in the target group. Effective planned change is change where the desired results of the change agents are achieved. I think in all cases the right and civilized way to affect change is through rational, non-violent solutions and that a violent approach always leads to disaster.] 

Customizing and Expanding Learning Opportunities:

The article mentions the trend toward standardization of curricula (but the customization of methods) and the availability of education to all and the assurance that every student is to receive at least a basic education and it mentions that "customized learning could be the counterrevolution to this current emphasis on standards-based education." The article recognizes a trend toward customized learning which can accommodate different rates and styles of student learning so that individualized learning plans can accommodate different rates and styles of student learning and the use of technology-enabled learning platforms, such as online courses, that connect students to options and resources beyond their classrooms.

The article includes a definition of the phrase "emerging issue" and how one is to scan for signs of an emerging issue so that a good seed can be grown and a bad seed can be either not planted or nipped even prior to becoming a bud. There is also a discussion as to how to initiate a strategic discussion about the future. 

In inititiating change, the article suggests to think about "customizing and expanding learning opportunities", of schools as living systems, and of schools within social and historical context. The article asks: "What signs of leadership do you already see emerging in response to these issues?" and "What conditions would favor this leadership flourishing?"

In responding to possible future scenarios, the article lists three main issues that have emerged:

Quality, Technology, and Equality. This involves supplying quality education to all and the use of technology, such as online courses, to achieve this.

Impacts of Choice in Education. This also is through the use of technology and access and students will in the future have a wide range of choices with which to achieve their own goals and ultimately their self-actualization.

Relation of Education to Social Change. This involves the general decentralization of society and of the educational system and the use of the educational system for the democratization of society and for positive social change and reform.

Provocative Ideas in the Present

As previously mentioned, technology and social movements are changing the world situation at a rapid pace in all aspects including educationally, socially, politically, environmentally, economically, and culturally. In the educational field, one example of the new uses of technology is the use of distance learning using online instruction via the Internet. In addition to technology, issues that impact the living and professional environments are the decentralization of all processes, globalization, and the democratization of society. In my idea of teaching and implementing the processes of direct democracy in the United States (as is practiced now in Switzerland, for example), the citizens would have a more direct affect on the legislative and governmental policies under which they must live and these changes would occur and progress at a natural pace.

References:

Vago, Steven. (1999). Strategies of Change. Chapter 9: Social Change. Pearson Educational, Inc.

North Central Regional Educational Laboratory. How to Identify and Explore Emerging Issues, Vignettes: The Revolution Begins with You. Retrieved April 18, 2004 from <http://www.ncrel.org/policy/emerg/over.htm> 

Related Websites (Webliography):

<http://www.cpre.org/Publications/rb05.pdf>
An article referring to decentralization in society and in education in particular from the Center for Policy Research in Education (CPRE).

<http://www.developmentgateway.org/node/130685/?>
This site involves E-government and E-democracy issues worldwide.

<http://www.enc.org/focus/partners/document.shtm?input=FOC-001876-index>
Online lesson plans, student activities, and teacher learning tools from the Eisenhower National Clearinghouse for Mathematics and Science Education (ENC).

<http://www.lancs.ac.uk/staff/trowler/links.htm>
A list of links, websites, and resources related to educational research provided by Lancaster University of the U.K.

<http://web.wested.org/online_pubs/po-00-03.pdf>
An article concerning educational funding from WestEd (wested.org).
--
Howard,
This is a possible curriculum for introducing the concept of direct democracy through the educational system.  Later I can develop each yearly level into more detailed curricula or syllabi.
---
from Liston:
The ideas surrounding how people find ways to get the most out of their educational experience throughout their lives is an aspect of this vignette entitled, "Motivated to Learn" that I found interesting. As an adult learner myself, I still am intrigued with the idea that people try to find out what they need to know to be successful and then they go out and acquire that pool of knowledge using whatever resources are available to them through a variety of conduits. 

Such a scenario speaks to the idea of customizing educational experiences for the learner who comes to the experience with different sets of motivations, hopes, and aspirations. The vignette, "Motivated to Learn" was illustrative of this concept as it might be viewed by and individual who comes from the results oriented business world looking at how people to improve worker training and education. In the world today, there is undoubtedly continued escalation in both the growth and need for customized and ubiquitous learning opportunities in areas where employees need greater technical skills.

There is certainly a burgeoning need today within employment sectors for customized learning opportunities customized for workers who need new skills in an increasingly global economy. Technical, or knowledge-based, careers made up only 15% of the U.S. economy in 1968, compared to 70% today. Ninety percent of new jobs created today require a technical background (Foster, 2001).

Review of Questions Presented in Vignette 

Question: If more customized approaches to individual learning are adopted, how can achievement be measured in the absence of standardized instruction? 

The result of a 1997 study commissioned by the U.S. Department of Education, indicated that performance assessments are an important tool for determining if educational goals are being met in learners. The team engaged in the study examined the 
basic assumptions underlying assessment reform with the thought in mind that performance assessments will result in better teaching and learning and will raise student achievement (Black, 2003). The researchers identified five types of assessment tasks: 

* On-demand assignments that require students to respond in a short period of time, such as working with a small group to brainstorm a solution to a problem. 
* Extended assignments that give students out-of-class time to research a topic and figure out how to show their understanding of new information. 
* Demonstrations that allow students to present or exhibit and explain their work on a curriculum topic. 
* Portfolios that collect and organize students' performance tasks -- such as essays, drawings, and reports -- and show their learning progress. 
* Other tasks that students can choose to show their level of mastery of new concepts.

Assessments should be designed to validate the skill gained at the end of the program. The result therefore is that in customized learning scenarios, there should be greater emphasis placed on answering the question of whether or not the learner can 
effectively demonstrate mastery over the subject matter being taught. 

Question: Does measurement and assessment curb the intrinsic motivation to learn that is a basic aspect of lifelong learning? 

In and of themselves, measurement and assessment activities do not curb intrinsic motivation within the learner. In adult learners, an inherent principle of adragogy is that motivation is a result of a genuine desire on the part of the individual to gain mastery 
over the subject matter. In a larger sense within an overall educational context, measurement and assessment activities should be geared towards maintaining student interest and motivation. Properly done, assessment activities can help to promote 
motivation and sense of direction for online learners. This is where the idea of effective feedback comes into play. Effective feedback is described as: 1) Based on performance standards rather than on personal opinion. 2) Followed by new action. 3) 
Quantitative, since numerical feedback indicates small improvements that produce changes in learner performance in the long run. 4) Prompt, but not necessarily as soon as possible. 

Question: If measurement and assessment do curb the motivation to learn, then what is more important: learning how to learn or the ability to measure lessons learned?
In response to the question:  Does measurement and assessment curb the intrinsic motivation to learn that is a basic aspect of lifelong learning?
I think both extrinsic and intrinsic motivations are valid and effective methods of achieving educational goals but extrinsically obtained information is what can be assessed by external evaluators.  It is fine for people to receive much of their information on their own and have intrinsic motivation to obtain that sort of information but in an educational setting how can information that has been achieved through intrinsic motivation be assessed?  Someone could take level tests but then the level tests themselves become extrinsic factors in themselves.  So realistically speaking, though all kinds motivation for learning are commendable, education that is obtained as a result of extrinsic motivation is what can be assessed by educators.
--
In the previous Scuttlebutt area I mentioned the use of the supernatural for looking into the future.
Another method is speculation by futurologists.  Some of these are: John Naisbitt (Megatrends, Megatrends 2000, Megatrends Asia), Alvin Toffler (Future Shock, The Third Wave), and Hamish McRae (The World in 2020).
Also the contribution of science fiction writers, artists, and inventors should be mentioned.   Science fiction writers such as Jules Verne (television, submarines, space travel), H.G. Wells (social systems, beyond earth communication), Arthur Clarke (satellites), and Mary Shelly (organ transplants) all helped shape the present with their imagination.  Also,artists, inventors and imaginative geniuses such as Leonardo da Vinci (airplane, bicycle, etc.) and Thomas Edison (light bulb, phonograph, and motion picture film, cameras, and projectors, etc.) helped move society and technology towards the future as well.
--
Dyads will post results of their trend extrapolation activity. This post will consist of: (a) the five trends each of you selected, along with a justification for the selection of these trends, (b) similarities/differences in the choices each of you made, (c) the extrapolation statements each dyad member arrived at and an analysis of cause and effect relationships.

Examine another dyad's posting. Analyze the justifications/underlying assumptions that were made in selecting baseline trends. Do you agree or disagree? Why? Support your ideas with citations from the literature. (1.b, 7.x)
--
Four criteria of functionality, simplicity, time-testedness, and interconnectivity are mentioned in the text for the seven futuring tools which are Trend Extrapolation, the Delphi Technique, Morphological Analysis, the Crawford Slip Method, Scenario Planning, Cross-Impact Analysis, and Futuring Trees.
Concerning trend extrapolation, several trends that affect society and educational systems come to mind.  Some of these trends are:
New technology -- Technology will continue to make the the people and machines of the world function faster and more efficiently but it also has the potential of making the world more dangerous.
Population growth -- one estimate is that the population will continue to increase at a rate of about one billion people every ten years making the population of 6 billion in the present grow to about 11 billion in the year 2050 and this will have an impact on all facets of society.
Decentralization  -- The processes of society are becoming decentralized and democratized.  This is now possible with new technology and besides making people able to communicate over great distances it also adds a level of security and strength to a population or nation since all of the people and resources are spread around a large area rather than all gathered together into one potential target area.
Globalization  -- Travel and communications technology are bringing the  world closer together and businesses and organizations are establishing their operations worldwide thus creating a blending of local and foreign (foreign to the local culture, that is) cultures into one new world culture.
Diversification of interests and populations  -- People now have access to a wide range of cultural interests, professions, hobbies, and educational opportunities in which they can engage.
Standardization of services -- In order to assure the above mentioned efficiency of technology, labor intensive processes will become more standardized
Richard
Reference: 
Alexander, A. & Serfass R.  (1999).  Futuring Tools for Strategic Quality Planning in Education. Milwaukee, Wisconsin: Quality Press.
--
to Liston:
Essentialism
--
u4 response to Howard
Richard, I have been thinking about the direction of your comments and your interest in direct democracy. One of the topics that you raised here is something you will certainly need to address as part of your vision -- the impact of or threat of terrorism on the process.  In your Trend Exploration you stated "the processes of society are becoming decentralized and democratized." What evidence can you offer to support this trend?
--
Henry Ford used the idea of an assembly line, called Fordism, where every worker was essentially equal but performed a specialized function in the production process and F.W. Taylor (1949) studied a lateral, rather than top-down, system of production, with labor being distributed in a lateral net-work rather than a hierarchy. 
A. Chandler's study "Strategy and Structure (1962) shed light on the American corporation, focusing on General Motors (headed by A. Sloan in the 1930s) and du Pont. Chandler analysed the defects of the centralised, functionally departmentalised structure and argued that the bigger a company grows, the more inefficient a hierarchy gets because the management can no longer deal with the increasing complexity of coordinating people. He concluded that decentralization will flourish, as it allows large companies to establish an organisational platform for better communication and co-ordination." (Dafermos, 2001).  As a result of this trend, responsibilities within a large organization will be distributed into a series of groups and sub-groups all the way "down" to the individual.
With computers, telephones, and other communication and travel technologies it is no longer necessary to put everyone in a company or organization in the same building or location thus physically decentralizing organizations. Relative security from terrorism is another justification for decentralization.  The events of September, 11, 2001 showed us that it is putting many people together in one spot creates a potential target for terrorists.  The same argument can be made concerning cities too so that populations will begin to span out all around they countyside thus providing that much more security against any sort of 9-11 attack.
Democratization occurs not only through the ballot box of politics but also in social attitudes and in the capitalization of a free market society where each consumer or potential customer "votes" for a particular product or service with his or her money.  Even China is becoming more economically privatized and capitalistic.
Concerning democratization, some, such as many people in the Asian countries, find some aspects of democracy (such as political campaigns) distasteful and undignified.  Also, I think some their thinking goes along the lines of: "You wouldn't want an untrained person to pilot your airplane or perform surgery on you, would you?"  So I think they think of people running the government as pilots of the "airplane" or ship of a nation and would not want untrained, unqualified people elected by the public running a government.   I think some areas of governmental policy need to be determined by experts (but how are those experts to be selected?) -- but elected legislators are not expert in all areas either.  I think some issues would need to be screened, examined, and written about by expert committees -- these are usually people university-educated in specificialized subjects -- and their policies voted on by a consortium of peers educated within that particular field but other issues can be decided on by the voting public and some issues by certified voters.  Guidelines would need to be established (ay, there's the rub) to determine into which categories the issues to be decided on are to be placed.

References:

Dafermos, G.  (2001).  Management and Virtual Decentralized Networks: The Linus Project.   Retrieved March 30, 2004 from http://www.firstmonday.dk/issues/issue6_11/dafermos/#d2
McRae, Hamish. (1994). The World in 2020. Boston: Harvard Business School Press.
Naisbitt, John. (1997). Megatrends Asia. New York: Touchstone.
Toffler, Alvin. (1980). The Third Wave.  New York: Bantam Books.
--
u4d1 comment to Greg
Your comments that trends come and go but some are here to stay made me think of the philosopy of Essentialism that we studied in the educational philosophy course which states that some trends, topics, or subjects are timeless and universal -- and are essential to learn -- and should always be covered in every person's education.
Richard

u4d1 Trend Extrapolation:

Four criteria of functionality, simplicity, time-testedness, and interconnectivity are mentioned in the text for the seven futuring tools which are Trend Extrapolation, the Delphi Technique, Morphological Analysis, the Crawford Slip Method, Scenario Planning, Cross-Impact Analysis, and Futuring Trees.

Concerning Trend Extrapolation, several trends that affect society and educational systems come to mind. Some of these trends are:

New technology -- Technology will continue to make the the people and machines of the world function faster and more efficiently but it also has the potential of making the world more dangerous.

Population growth -- one estimate is that the population will continue to increase at a rate of about one billion people every ten years making the population of 6 billion in the present grow to about 11 billion in the year 2050 and this will have an impact on all facets of society.

Decentralization -- The processes of society are becoming decentralized and democratized. This is now possible with new technology and besides making people able to communicate over great distances it also adds a level of security and strength to a population or nation since all of the people and resources are spread around a large area rather than all gathered together into one potential target area.

Globalization -- Travel and communications technology are bringing the world closer together and businesses and organizations are establishing their operations worldwide thus creating a blending of local and foreign (foreign to the local culture, that is) cultures into one new world culture.

Diversification of interests and populations -- People now have access to a wide range of cultural interests, professions, hobbies, and educational opportunities in which they can engage.

Standardization of services -- In order to assure the above mentioned efficiency of technology, labor intensive processes will become more standardized

Richard

Reference: 

Alexander, A. & Serfass R. (1999). Futuring Tools for Strategic Quality Planning in Education. Milwaukee, Wisconsin: Quality Press.
--
u4 response to Howard

Richard, I have been thinking about the direction of your comments and your interest in direct democracy. One of the topics that you raised here is something you will certainly need to address as part of your vision -- the impact of or threat of terrorism on the process. In your Trend Exploration you stated "the processes of society are becoming decentralized and democratized." What evidence can you offer to support this trend?
--

Henry Ford used the idea of an assembly line, called Fordism, where every worker was essentially equal but performed a specialized function in the production process and F.W. Taylor (1949) studied a lateral, rather than top-down, system of production, with labor being distributed in a lateral net-work rather than a hierarchy. 

A. Chandler's study "Strategy and Structure (1962) shed light on the American corporation, focusing on General Motors (headed by A. Sloan in the 1930s) and du Pont. Chandler analysed the defects of the centralised, functionally departmentalised structure and argued that the bigger a company grows, the more inefficient a hierarchy gets because the management can no longer deal with the increasing complexity of coordinating people. He concluded that decentralization will flourish, as it allows large companies to establish an organisational platform for better communication and co-ordination." (Dafermos, 2001). As a result of this trend, responsibilities within a large organization are distributed into a series of groups and sub-groups all the way "down" to the individual.

With computers, telephones, and other communication and travel technologies it is no longer necessary to put everyone in a company or organization in the same building or location thus physically decentralizing organizations. Relative security from terrorism is another justification for decentralization. The events of September, 11, 2001 showed us that putting many people together in one spot creates a potential target for terrorists. The same argument can be made concerning cities too so that populations will begin to span out all around they countyside thus providing that much more security against any sort of 9-11 type attack.

Democratization occurs not only through the ballot box of politics but also in social attitudes and in the capitalization of a free market society where each consumer or potential customer "votes" for a particular product or service with his or her money. Even China is becoming more economically privatized and capitalistic.

Concerning democratization, some, such as many people in the Asian countries, find some aspects of democracy (such as political campaigns) distasteful and undignified. Also, I think some their thinking goes along the lines of: "You wouldn't want an untrained person to pilot your airplane or perform surgery on you, would you?" So I think they think of people running the government as pilots of the "airplane" or ship of a nation and would not want untrained, unqualified people elected by the public running a government. I think some areas of governmental policy need to be determined by experts (but how are those experts to be selected?) -- but elected legislators are not expert in all areas either. I think some issues would need to be screened, examined, and written about by expert committees -- these are usually people university-educated in specificialized subjects -- and their policies voted on by a consortium of peers educated within that particular field but other issues can be decided on by the voting public and some issues by certified voters. Guidelines would need to be established (ay, there's the rub) to determine into which categories the issues to be decided on are to be placed.

References:

Dafermos, G. (2001). Management and Virtual Decentralized Networks: The Linus Project. Retrieved March 30, 2004 from http://www.firstmonday.dk/issues/issue6_11/dafermos/#d2 <http://www.firstmonday.dk/issues/issue6_11/dafermos/>

McRae, Hamish. (1994). The World in 2020. Boston: Harvard Business School Press.

Naisbitt, John. (1997). Megatrends Asia. New York: Touchstone.

Toffler, Alvin. (1980). The Third Wave. New York: Bantam Books.
--
u4d1 comment to Greg

Your comments that trends come and go but some are here to stay made me think of the philosopy of Essentialism that we studied in the educational philosophy course which states that some trends, topics, or subjects are timeless and universal -- and are essential to learn -- and should always be covered in every person's education.

Richard
--
u5d1 The Delphi Technique

The Delphi Technique alludes somewhat to the issue of fortune telling that I referred to in a previous discussion area but in this case the fortune telling, or guessing, is done by panels of experts. The term Delphi Technique refers to the mythical (?) psychic forecaster of ancient Greece from the Greek mountain temple city of Delphi. The difference is that the oracle there, during those times, obtained the information through divine connection or introspection whereas the expert panels derive their information through educated guessing and speculation.

The Delphi Technique could also be considered as similar to a jury in a court of law or a jury of judges in a juried event such as an art show or a sports event. However, the difference is that a jury in a court of law is more or less a random collection of judges who are not specialists and who are not necessarily a jury of peers -- as they are often purported to be -- whereas a panels of experts are trained and experienced within a particular discipline or area of study. The panel of experts can try to not only foresee the future but also can suggest guidelines to be used with which to arrive at a desired future goal and suggest ways of avoiding potential pitfalls.The Delphi procedure involves a series of discussions and questionnaires, some of which can be anonymous, to obtain information from which decisions are made, conclusions are drawn, and forecasts are developed.

My idea of proposing and developing a direct democracy system would involve continuous panels of experts and this could be considered a type of a Delphi method. The previously mentioned extrapolated trends (new technology, population growth, decentralization, globalization, diversification of interests and populations, and standardization of services) would be incorporated into the future plan development process. After, and even before and during the discussion and implementation of a direct democracy system, the most important aspect of creating a system whereby the information and training necessary to maintain a direct democracy is realized, is to establish a curriculum -- including the methods, institutions, and locations -- to dispense that information. The information could be dispensed in schools, both public and private, in home schooling situations, on the Internet, in books and magazines, and through commercial, governmental, and community organizations. The most wide-ranging method of disseminating this information would be through the public school system and colleges and universities. 

The concept would involve exploring what methods have been used previously to establish direct democracies (which are defined as the public voting directly on issues rather than through elected representatives who can, after being elected, vote any way they choose.), the history of democracy beginning with ancient Greece, and establishing a curriculum to be used to teach the principles and techniques of direct democracy in schools -- primarily through social studies and political science classes. This could be achieved through a series of discussions, panels, and questionnaires involving a wide variety of stake holders and educated experts within given fields. The surveys and questionnaires could be given to the general public, politicians, and specialists within specified areas. Concerning how to introduce, implement, develop, and sustain a direct democracy by utilizing the educational system, the process would involve obtaining ideas from social studies and political science teachers for developing a curriculum. One approach would be to send an emailed questionnaire to Social Studies and Political Science teachers in public and private schools who teach levels from kindergarten to the twelfth grade and to those who teach in the post-secondary and adult education learning environments. The questionnaire could contain closed-ended and open-ended questions in addition to a blank suggestion space at the end of the questionnaire where the instructors can add any thoughts that they may have on the subject.

As the concept of direct democracy develops, and as it comes into daily use, there would constantly be the need for the advice of expert opinion. In areas of specialized knowledge, in medicine for example, governmental policies would need to be derived from experts within those areas and those ideas could be exchanged though the procedures of the Delphi Technique.

The process could be used for each of the above-mentioned areas of development and for the maintenance of a system of direct democracy but the initial example of a survey of teachers is mentioned here:

Select a Team: 
This would be a team of educators and government workers

Identify the Main Issue: 
How to teach the history, concepts, and procedures of direct democracy in schools and alternative methods.

Develop a Questionnaire: 
Suggestions for questions are submitted by a collection of authors.

Select a Panel of Experts: 
A panel of governmental and educational experts selects the questions for the questionnaires. 

First-Round Survey and Tally: 
These are collected from paper and emailed surveys

Second-Round Survey and Tally

Third-Round Survey and Tally

Interpret the Results: 
These are interpreted by the initial team, the panel of experts, and a third panel formed for the purpose of interpreting the results.

SURVEY ITEMS:

Below are some open-ended questions that can be answered with essay type answers for social studies and political science teachers:

How has direct democracy been practiced in other countries and institutions and how effective has it been?

How can the educational system participate in the implementation of a direct democracy utilizing Internet and computer technology?

How can direct democracy be introduced and taught in Social Studies and Political Science courses?

How can a constitutional amendment be proposed?

How can the reliability of Internet voting be assessed?

How can the privacy and security of voters be assured?

How can the public be informed of issues to be voted on?

How can the voters register their votes via the Internet or computer?

How can the public be made aware of the safety and limitations of direct democracy?

How can the public be made aware of the roles and duties of citizens in a democracy?

How can the public be made aware of the philosophy and history of democracy?

Below is an example of how one of the sample questions could be answered:

-- How can a Constitutional amendment be proposed?

Constitutional amendments are permanent additions to the Constitution, though they can be counter-amended as was the case with the Prohibition amendment, that require a 2/3 vote from both houses of the Congress and therefore very difficult to obtain. There have been twenty seven Constitutional amendments with the most recent being in 1992 which involved no Congressional self salary increases while the legislators are in their term. The twelfth Amendment, concerning changing the method of electing the president of the United States using the Electoral College, was added in 1803 after the first ten Amendments, the Bill of Rights, were added in 1791. To introduce a contemporary amendment, emailed petitions could start the process and eventually public referendums could be held.

Below are sxamples of questions for a Likert scale item survey that could be sent to social studies and political science teachers. These closed-ended items can be responded to with linear scale responses: [(1)strongly disagree to (5)strongly agree, or (0)don?t know]:

Direct democracy been practiced in other countries and institutions and has been effective.

The educational system should participate in the implementation of a direct democracy utilizing Internet and computer technology.

Direct democracy should be introduced and taught in social studies and political science courses.

A Constitutional amendment should be proposed creating a direct democracy system in the United States.

The the use of the Internet is a reliable method for voting.

The voters have complete privacy.

The voters have complete security.

The public can be informed of issues to be voted on.

The voters could easily register their votes via the Internet or computer.

The public should be made aware of the safety using the Internet for direct democracy.

The public should be made aware of the limitations of direct democracy.

The public should be made aware of the roles and duties of citizens in a democracy.

The public should be made aware of the philosophy and history of democracy.

Other questions that could be made into either Likert scale items or open-ended questions:

Do you think the United States is a democracy now?

Do you think Direct Democracy or people voting directly on legislative issues is a good idea?

Do you think adequate technology exists today for direct democracy?

Do you think adequate education, information, and training can be given to citizens for them to vote as legislators?

Do you think interest for direct democracy would be maintained by the public?

Do you think that eventually a new branch of Congress could be formed by the voting citizens?

Do you think the people?s voting branch of Congress could be used first as an opinion collection device?

Do you think citizens and students should study for and take examinations in order to receive certification in order to qualify as a voting member of a legislature in a direct democracy?

Should the public schools provide education and training for citizens to function as voting members of a direct democracy system of government?

References: 

Alexander, A. & Serfass R. (1999). Futuring Tools for Strategic Quality Planning in Education. Milwaukee, Wisconsin: Quality Press.

Dillman, Don. (2000). Mail and Internet Surveys: The Tailored Designed Method. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Webliography:

How to Control People. (2004). Retrieved on April 5, 2004 from <http://www.apfn.net/messageboard/01-18-01/mbs.cgi.720.html>

Smyre, Rick. (2002). Democracy in a Learning Mode. from the South Carolina Export Consortium. Retrieved on April 5, 2004 from <http://tartan.communitiesofthefuture.org/articles/cotf-plwb-11b.html>

Workshop for the Delphi Technique. (2004). Retrieved on April 5, 2004 from <http://www.propertyrightsresearch.org/articles4/workshop_for_the_delphi_techniqu.htm>

--
Darla, I've amended my original submission to give more of the details of who would comprise the panel of experts and the various stages of the Delphi Technique.

Richard
--
Carolyn,

As an answer to the question "When should the university develop a plan for the use of web-based learning by its students?" I would say the answer is "now" if it has not already been done. (When you refer to "the" university, are you referring to a particular university or the basic university system?) I think all universities are probably using some form of web-based learning such as online texts or schedules for labs, etc. And many are using web-based or computer based techniques in conjunction with traditional classroom learning.

Richard

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The use of web-based or computer-based instruction for all types of training including military training would have the advantage of being able to offer a standardized curriculum which might not be as useful for the creative arts, for example, but would be a very useful tool for military training where standardized information and organizational solidity is essential. Standardization is important in the sense that everyone is being exposed to the same information thus creating a united organizational purpose. Also, it would cut back on the amount of personal (human) instruction required for the very basic courses or information thus freeing up instructional time for higher level endeavers and for other projects.

Richard
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I looked it up (a question to everyone about the effects of radioactivity that I asked in Unit one) and found that -- of course, it is meant to be contained so that those problems don't happen -- but from what I can gather, radioactivity can be harmful to animals because it causes radium to enter the bone marrow (not sure why that is bad), and can cause leukemia and other forms of cancer. I think generally on a cellular level radioactivity can cause cellular problems and mutation and various chemical imbalances within the body.

Richard
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Howard,

I amended my original posting and added some questions for the survey for social studies and political science teachers. I can revise the list and add some more later. Are there any more that you can think of?

Richard
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In a previous Scuttlebutt area I mentioned the use of the supernatural for looking into the future.

Another method of exploring the future is speculation by futurologists. Some of these are: John Naisbitt (Megatrends, Megatrends 2000, Megatrends Asia), Alvin Toffler (Future Shock, The Third Wave), and Hamish McRae (The World in 2020).

Also the contribution of science fiction writers, artists, and inventors should be mentioned. Science fiction writers such as Jules Verne (television, submarines, space travel), H.G. Wells (social systems, beyond earth communication), Arthur Clarke (satellites), and Mary Shelly (organ transplants) all helped shape the present with their imagination. Also,artists, inventors and creative geniuses such as Leonardo da Vinci (airplane, parachute, bicycle, etc.) and Thomas Edison (light bulb, phonograph, and motion picture film, cameras, and projectors, etc.) helped move society and technology towards the future as well.

Perhaps these examples could be considered as types of Scenario Planning.

Richard
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u6d1: Scenario Planning:

Step 1: Select the right team -- This concept is somewhat similar to the Delphi Technique with a team of people envisioning the future but the scenario planning team could also include people who are not necessarily categorized as experts but who have a participatory interest in the issue(s) involved and this group could also contain imaginative, creative artists, writers, and visionaries.

Step 2: Identify the main issue to resolve. It is a good idea to have a focus for the scenario but conceivably the scenario could contain several issues but usually one would rank as the most important. My particular project involves having teachers create scenarios for introducing, implementing, and sustaining a type of direct democracy though the facilities of the educational system.

Step 3. List the key factors in the environment. Today, the main issues often involve technology, the economy, democracy, access to education, quality versus quantity, among others.

Step 4: Rank key factors. This is a ranking of the above-mentioned key factors in the order of most to least important. For my project I would have the ranking in descending order as: democracy, social issues, technology, the economy, access to education, quality versus quantity.

Step 5: Determine axes of uncertainty. These are opposite, contrary, or opposing views. These can include war and peace, stability and instability, etc. And in societal structures: hierarchal as opposed to participatory systems and inclusive as opposed to exclusive systems.

Step 6: Develop scenarios. These are usually arranged in groups of four positioned in the four quadrants of the x and y axes configuration.

Step 7: Analyze and interpret scenarios. The team assesses the scenarios based on practicality, feasibility, probability, utility, etc.

Four possible future societal scenarios are listed below:

(-,+) Scenario 1: eastern-style hierarchal, Confucian democracy

(+,+) Scenario 2: totalitarianism, communism

(-, -) Scenario 3: direct democracy

(+,-) Scenario 4: representative democracy

(the pluses and minuses in the parentheses indicate the location within the ( x,y ) quadrants, not value judgements, with hierarchal on the top, participatory on the bottom, inclusive on the left, and exclusive on the right side of the chart.)

Scenario 1: eastern-style hierarchical, Confucian democracy..........................Scenario 2: totalitarianism, communism
Scenario 3: direct democracy.......................................................................Scenario 4: representative democracy

..............................+
...................Hierarchical
-....Inclusive...........,.........Exclusive...+
..................Participatory
.............................-

Hypothetical Scenarios of the year 2030

Scenario 1 Hierarchical democracy

This is a hierarchical system derived predominately from the oriental philosophy of Confucius (551-479 BC) joined with the concepts of democracy as first formulated in Athens, Greece (circa 500 BC) and guided by the demands a capitalistically fueled market economy. The educational system is a combination of state-supplied public education with private institutions providing educational enhancements. The economics of this system is a union of public and private funding and utilizes the ever accerating advances of technology.

Scenario 2 Totalitarianism and Communism

This system is centralized and theoretically derived from the philosophy of the German philosopher, Karl Marx and unquestioning devotion to the state and its leadership is required of all citizens. The educational system is also centralized and all texts, curriculum, and funding emanate from the state. Religious concepts are not allowed to be discussed, however, philosophical concepts are allowed to be discussed in the educational system but students, teachers, and citizens must take an oath to support the official state doctrine. All technological, political, and economic endeavers exist for the glorification and maintenance of the state.

Scenario 3 Direct democracy

The United States --as well as many other nations -- is adopting a direct participatory, rather than a representative, form of democracy in determining legislative decisions thus adhering more closely to the concepts of democracy as originally envisioned. The United States Congress, as a result of many referendums, petitions, letters, and public demand has now passed the 30th amendment to the United States Constitution which establishes the Third House of Congress which is composed of qualified voting members of the Public Assembly and whose combined votes count as 1/3, along with the House of Representatives and the Senate, in determining the passage of legislative bills. The educational system supplies the training and education of all citizens who are eligible, as registered voters with a special certification, to become voting members of the Public Assembly. The economy functions according to the principles of Adam Smith's concept of capitalism and the free market system and the economic system is funded by public and private sources.

Scenario 4 Representative democracy

The society has maintained the status quo -- though some think it has stagnated -- of the political climate carried over from the beginning of the millennium in the year 2000 and the representative democratic system of the United States prevails though the economy continues to suffer as a result of the on-going war against the Arab and Islamic League, which began with Iraq in 2003 but has since been joined by 11 other Arabic and Islamic alligned associations of nations amounting to a sort of prolonged world conflict. Though technological advances continue to occur, the economy, as well as the educational system, has suffered also since many of the nations resources have been devoted to that conflict.

Hypothetical Scenarios of the year 3000

Scenario 1 Hierarchical democracy

Society and technology continue to develop rapidly and the hierarchical structure based on the Confucian philosophy are successfully integrated into a world culture where modified English (joined with verbal units of other languages) remains the international language and everyone on Earth is connected by communications technology. The economic system, based on Adam Smith's concept of capitalism and free markets, prospers and the educational system continues to progress.

Scenario 2 Totalitarianism and Communism

The state continues to rule but now computer-based systems and decisions are ruling the state so that ,in effect, human society is governed by machines. The effect of society's endeavors is that money within the economy is dispersed so that, according to communist doctrine, everyone has more or less an equal share of the world economy regardless of their position or role within society. Nature has been relegated to the position as servant to mankind's aspirations and, resultingly, natural resources are diminishing quickly. The state continues to combine all nations into one centrally administered government and centrally administered state-owned enterprises. Children continue to be raised by the Family Unit Division of the Central Committee and educated in Communal Learning Combines. The educational system continues to be funded from a centralized system and continues to extol the virtues of the state.

Scenario 3 Direct democracy

As a result of computer technology the world is connected via computer and legislative decisions are, after a period of debate, are determined by a click of a button by the voting members of the legislature. The economy continues to follow the laws of supply and demand and most of the international conflicts have been resolved as the public is against such confict and violence and most are interested in their own -- as well as mankind's -- survival. The economy and the educational system continues to prosper and knowledge continues to be added to the knowledge base.

Scenario 4 Representative democracy

The elitism, squabbles, and power struggles of representative government continue and the world continues to plunge into economic turmoil as international conflicts -- with the additional threat of the technologies of destruction -- continue to escalate which drain the economy, the environment, and the supply of natural resources. The economic and educational system continue to be secondary to the political conflicts that occur between politicians.

End Scenario 5: Year 85,000

The human race has largely evacuated Earth as a result of a series of earlier nuclear wars and epidemic outbreaks of diseases but primarily because of the depletion of Earth's natural resources, atmospheric loss, and the decrease of the sun's temperature as a result of its diminishing hydrogen supply (though in another approximately one billion years the sun will lose most of its feul supply and causing it swell into a supernova thus becoming a red giant engulfing the inner planets, including Earth.) Some genetically-altered humans have been assigned as extra-terrestial space travelers for generations-long space journeys through the universe to colonize or inhabit other more hospitable planetary systems. Some humans, and other organisms and life forms, have been sent via extra-dimensional methods (also referred to as the "beam-me-up-Scottie" method) however the results of these endeavers are not known as the travelers are unable to communicate messages back from the destinations to which they are aimed since the messages would require millions of light years to be received, which, as most would agree, is too long to wait.

Reference: 

Alexander, A. & Serfass R. (1999). Futuring Tools for Strategic Quality Planning in Education. Milwaukee, Wisconsin: Quality Press.

Webliography:

Corporate Facilitation from the BREFI group. Retrieved May 12, 2004 from <http://www.brefigroup.co.uk/facilitation/scenario_planning_articles.html> 

Don't Stop Thinking about Tomorrow. from CIO. com. Retrieved May 12, 2004 from <http://www.cio.com/archive/010100/stop.html> 

Outward Insights. Retrieved May 12, 2004 from <http://www.outwardinsights.com/> "We offer a host of solutions to help you anticipate-rather than react to-external threats and opportunities."

SekretariatProf.grat. University of St. Gallen. Retrieved May 12, 2004 from <http://www.sgzz.ch/home/links/scenplan.htm> 
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Carolyn,

I'm sure Ryan will enjoy Kagoshima and he should see but be "beware" of Sakurajima (the active volcano there). The trains from Nagasaki to Kagoshima, along with the Shinkansen or the "bullet train", are some of the best trains in the world. I remember the female attendants on the train to Kagoshima were like (and dressed like) stewardesses or flight attendents rather than what one would usually find on a train ride so the trip was more like a plane ride than a train ride.

Richard
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Howard,

The syllabus for Unit 6 suggests that we let our imaginations run "just a little bit wild" by developing future scenarios so that is what I've done. I added descriptions to the scenarios in my posting.

Also, there was no mention that I saw as to how far into the future we were to project, though most of us assumed the near future of within our lifetimes. I wrote a set of scenarios for the years 2030 and 3000 in addition to a bonus scenario for the year 85,000 (That sounds like a long time away, but if humans are to be on Earth longer than the dinosaurs, we still have another 98,000,000 years to go, so in that scale, a few hundred -- or even thousands of years -- is not such a long time.)

Richard
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u6 Comment to Thurm:

I think nuclear power is probably the wave of the future since not as much material is needed to create energy (as opposed to power derived from coal, oil, water, etc.), however, the problem of nuclear waste and radioactivity must always be attended to. In China, the government is building the world's largest dam -- to make dam-generated electricity and to control flooding -- which will create the world's largest artificial lake. Some say this could have been done with a series of smaller dams or with nuclear power plants (for the electrical power).

I think in the future harnessing the sun's energy, which is always a natural source of energy, and utilizing solar power is also the wave of the future.

Richard
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u6 Comment to Cheryl:

I assume from what I read in your descriptions that the preferred Scenario is #1 (or perhaps #2). I think in such an institution that education, training, and counseling are essential. Also, I think it would be helpful for all of the detainees to be trained for in-house duties (as well as for skills that can be used outside of the institution's walls) and they could each have jobs within the institution to be paid -- or punished by demerits or non-payment -- with an in-house currency that could be used for in-house purchases of goods and perhaps services.

Richard
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u7d1 Futuring Tree

A futuring tree is defined as a diagraming of network pathways moving from the desired future goal to the present conditions.

The purpose of constructing a futuring tree is to identify a future goal and then determine what pathways would have been necessary to achieve that desired goal by reasoning backward towards the present.

The operational characteristics of a futuring tree are that the process begins with the desired future state, that vision and stragegic methods to achieve a goal are required, that the analysis proceeds in reverse from the future to the present and presents a network of possibilities that occur through phases of development.

The structure of a futuring tree is analogous to the branching of a tree with the trunk being the future and the branches moving toward the present.

One example of constructing a futuring tree is the space flight program where an organization, such as NASA, determines a future goal such as a planetary space flight, and then thinks back from that goal to the present to determine how that goal can be achieved.

The process for constructing a futuring tree could involve the following steps:

1. Establish an Appropriate Cross-Functional Team.

2. Develop Key Vision Themes.

3. Define the Present State.

4. Begin the Branch Point Network.

5. Analyze Theme One.

6. Analyze Themes Two, Three, and Four.

7. Form the Completed Network.

8. Identify Priority Pathways.

9. Develop an Action Plan.

The concept of futuring trees reverses the concept of working towards the future and takes the various routes (that originated from the present) backwards from the future to the present (now). The futuring tree method is similar to the method of following dropped breadcrumbs to arrive at the current destination's point of origin, as was done by Hansel and Gretl in finding their way back home, or the deductive reasoning methods of Sherlock Holmes to uncover the perpetrator(s) of a crime by working backwards from the committed crime to the present condition. The futuring tree method also brings to mind the phrase "All roads lead to Rome" since there can be innumerable routes to arrive at one particular destination, which, in the case of futuring trees, is the desired and attained future state. And, since, to use another familiar phrase, there are a million ways to skin a cat, there are likewise an uncountable number of possible routes that can be taken to arrive at the desired future destination.

In the future scenario as illustrated by a futuring tree, society evolves toward the practice of the democracy that almost everyone says they believe in (yet which exists only on a small and local scale such as within a legislature or a small organization) a world exempt from the petty, and potentially deadly -- for the ruled populace -- conflicts between politicians. From the future of direct democracy back to the present, we would first need to conduct the journey from one situation or location and I would choose the United States of America for the purposes of this futuring tree. Today the United States has a complicated system of local, state, and federal legislatures and a government roughly divided into an executive, a legislative, and a judicial branch. The purpose, it is said, of a democracy is govern according to the will of the people, a concept developed around 500 BC in Athens, Greece. This is now accomplished by electing people who try to think like the majority of the people who elected them on every issue, which is in actuality, an impossible task. Also, it is done by conducting random opinion polls such as the Gallup or Harris polls to get a general idea of what the public is thinking. Only recently has technology offered the possibility of rendering the public's desires directly, however, this idea is too new to be absorbed into and accepted by the collective consciousness at the present time and needs time to be explored and then accepted. As every individual's strongest drive is the drive for survival, so too the strongest drive of the collective consciousness of society is the drive for survival of human society and it is therefore logical to assume that the majority of a society will elect to choose those behaviors and conditions that are the most beneficial to the sustenance of the human race. For these reasons, a government of, by, and for the people is the preferred method of governance.

Reference: 

Alexander, A. & Serfass R. (1999). Futuring Tools for Strategic Quality Planning in Education. Milwaukee, Wisconsin: Quality Press.

Webliography:

List, Dennis. (2001). Multiple pasts, converging presents, and alternative futures. Retrieved May 19, 2004 from <http://business2.unisa.edu.au/innovres/papers/brasov.htm> Various methods of futuring techniques. 

Rausch, Erwin. (1994). SIMULATION AND GAMES IN FUTURING AND OTHER USES. Retrieved May 19, 2004 from <http://www.futurovenezuela.org/_curso/14-games.pdf> Simulated futuring specifically in relation to computers, games, virtual reality, game theory and business and societal future scenarios.

Futures Resource Pack. Retrieved May 19, 2004 from www.fastfuture.com/Docs/FFV_Futures_Resource_Pack.doc A list of links and resources related to futuring and studies concerning the future.

Jigsaw Project. (2002). Creating our Future. Retrieved May 19, 2004 from <http://www.communitybuilders.nsw.gov.au/download/jigsaw_final_report.pdf> A project with several future scenarios, mostly for the year 2020, and how to arrive at them
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ADD FUTURING TREE READER ILLUSTRATION HERE
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To Thurm:

Russia is the largest country in the world -- its width spans almost half the globe -- and it had at one time the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons. My concern is, with all of the bribable bureaucrats there I wonder if there is (was) a possibility of nuclear material and technology to be sold to governments or even to terrorists after, or even before, the breakup of the U.S.S.R.

Recently, in Pakistan it was revealed that the head nuclear scientist there (I think a Nobel Prize winner) had been selling nuclear material, technology, and technological information to various governments including Iran and North Korea over the past several years. 

Also, will nuclear technology ever reach the point where it becomes publicly available, and the manufacturing techniques publicly attainable, so that terrorists can make home-made nuclear bombs (not only so-called "dirty bombs" which contain radioactive material)? It's a scary thought but one worth considering.

Richard
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u7 comment to Karen:

I'm mentioning this in the futuring tree section since portfolio compilation involves the concepts of futuring: perhaps there could be assistance (both before entering the institute and during the time spent studying there) in the development of student portfolios, both drawing and painting on paper as well as computer-based art saved on disks or presented on a website.

Richard
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u7d1 Reply to Howard and Liston

When the United States Constitution was written, the forefathers wrote an all-encompassing and a sweeping document that is still relevant, has stood the test of time, and has withstood the difficulties, controversies, and amendments that have occurred during its existence. But this document was written around 1776 and the society at the time was very different from the society of today. The forefathers, even with all of their foresight and all-inclusiveness were not able to factor in dramatic future changes in technology and, resultingly, in society. They could not have foreseen a future with telephones, radios, televisions, cars, airplanes, jet engines, rockets, computers, the Internet, etc. Now that the new technologies are here and will continue to grow, advance, and be perfected, we need to examine how this affects society, the government, and the Constitution.

The United States in its military campaigns says it wants to promote and protect democracy. But is the United States a democracy? It is a republic or a representative democracy. An example of a democracy within the United States federal goverment is the U.S. Congress where the members debate and vote usually for a simple majority to win a case or a referendum or to pass a bill. When a presidential election is held today well over 100 million people can vote. The United States Constitution created the electoral college for, I have heard, several reasons and one of them is to prevent mob rule (but isn't that what democracy is?) or for a government run by the uneducated (though now, most people are receiving high levels of education in comparison with the past of the forefathers). I think another reason that the electoral college was institutionalized was because, at the time the Constitution was written, if a national election were to be held, tallying the votes would be an almost impossible task. Then, a sack of votes, or the results of local voting, would have to be sent by a messenger riding horseback. Just carrying the votes from California (or Georgia, during the time of the 13 colonies) to Washington, D.C. could take weeks, that is, if they ever even got to their destination. Today, we live in a very different world where messages are transmitted instantaneously worldwide via telephones, computers, or the Internet.

My idea is not to do away with the U.S. Congress as it exists now but to add a new section: the Public Assembly. The passage of a bill would require a majority vote in each of the 3 sections: the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the Public Assembly. The difference in the three sections is that the Public Assembly would have many more voters. (A similar concept could be utilized on the state and local levels also). Some might think of the idea as revolutionary but I would call it evolutionary. I think the technology of computers and the Internet is much more revolutionary and what could be more revolutionary and radical than the American Revolutionary War and the accompanying documents of independence? The Iraq War is also revolutionary but it was instigated externally whereas the American Revolution was instigated internally by the local inhabitants who understood the culture in which they lived -- and that is a big difference.

After the 2000 Presidential election fiasco, and since Al Gore got at least 530,000 more of the public's votes, I was surprised later that there was not a movement, or even a discussion, about a replacement of the Electoral College system but apparently most people seem to be accepting of that system at the present time. Also, the concept I suggested, the Public Assembly, would not necessarily preclude the existence of the Electoral College, that is a separate issue and it could be decided at some future time to either modify or eliminate that system. With my described idea it would be conceivably possible to retain the Electoral College and still have the Public Assembly.

The preferred method of implementation of this idea is to proceed in an evolutionary, gradual, and non-violent way and build the system by avoiding the mistakes of , and building on the successes, of the past.

In reply to Howard's Pogo quote: I think it is true that mankind is mankind's worst enemy and some of the characteristics of the enemy are stubbornness and ignorance. Richard
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u7 reply to Debra

Debra,

Thank you your comments. I'm glad that diagram was helpful to you.  Richard
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In the journal, The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, one can find articles from 1968 and 1972 on topics such as genetic engineering, climate change, germ warfare, and how the countries of India and China were working to create nuclear weapons. These topics remain important to this day. All of the articles were written by scientists and respected scholars. What role do you think expertise plays in predicting the future? Does this knowledge change your mind about the efficacy of the futuring tools presented in this course?

We are today still concerned with the issues mentioned above: genetic engineering (cloning and stem cell research), climate change (global warming including the new movie about the subject, The Day After Tomorrow), germ warfare (al-Qaida and others), and how the countries of India and China were working to create nuclear weapons (we are still concerned about nuclear weapons in these countries as well as the search for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and North Korea, among others). Unfortunately, much of the weapons of mass destruction information concerning the middle east was obtained via word of mouth from defectors from those countries rather than from experts so more expert knowledge could have been used in those pursuits. There are also ethical issues associated with entrusting experts with potentially harmful information such as what occurred recently, in Pakistan where it was revealed that the head nuclear scientist there had been selling nuclear material, technology, and technological information to various governments including Iran and North Korea over the past several years. 

Expert scientists and scholars generally base their thoughts on history and on their collective knowledge and experience within their field of expertise. However, experts are generally regarded for the above mentioned values and not for their imagination or visions of the future and they generally tend to mention what can not be done rather than what can or should be done based on precedents and their knowledge of history within their field.

Experts should be highly regarded within the fields of their endeavors and they are repositories of relevant information within the field of their expertise and they are expert mostly in the areas of history and factual information. An expert should be highly educated -- usually educated within a formal educational setting but also, possibly, within an empirical or experiential environment -- within the field of their expertise. The experts, however, are generally not known for their imagination, innovation, and creativity, and that is where the ordinary citizens, as well as visionaries, artists, writers, and the like, come into play as they can submit ideas for the experts' scrutiny for plans for the best possible future for the most people. This process also demonstrates the value of democracy, the Internet, and other new technologies. If two heads are better than one then how much better are 6 billion heads (or selecting from 6 billion heads)? A good future might include some factor of luck, or being in the right place at the right time, but more often than not, it is the result of careful planning and the systematic execution of those plans. So experts and scientists, in concert with other sources, can play a vital role in guiding -- if not predicting -- the present towards a desirable future.

Reference:

Alexander, A. & Serfass R. (1999). Futuring Tools for Strategic Quality Planning in Education. Milwaukee, Wisconsin: Quality Press.

Webliography:

Kerry M. Joels, Kerry. (2004). Future Studies: An Interdisciplinary Vehicle for Space Science Education. Retrieved May 26, 2004 from <http://www.jsc.nasa.gov/er/seh/future.html>
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u8d2 Lasting and Temporary Trends

Identify current issues and/or trends impacting your professional environments. Do you believe that these issues or trends are lasting or temporary? What evidence can you cite to support your beliefs?

Basic principles and concepts, such as the laws of physics, are enduring however our interpretation or of their explanations or our theories about them may change over time as well as the methods of implementing some principles. People's attitudes and beliefs as well as technology are always changing, so it can be said the only constant in life is change. As expressed in a Buddhist saying: "you never put your foot into the same river twice." I think the idea of democracy has been constant throughout history but the institutions that implement the principles can be diverse, temporary, or changing. The idea I have presented, the idea of direct democracy, might be thought of as being too new for some people, though it can hardly be said that an idea that originated before 500BC can be thought of as new.

I think I would answer this question the same way as I did in Unit 1 discussion but the difference is that I am now familiar with futuring methods that can be utilized to bring concepts into realization in the future. As I mentioned previously, "technology is changing the world situation at a rapid pace in all aspects: educationally, socially, politically, environmentally, economically, and culturally. The issue of technology is lasting in the sense that technology will always affect how life and educational processes are conducted, however, new technologies are constantly being introduced so that one needs to constantly become acquainted with and trained in new technological techniques so in that sense the effects of technology are transitory or temporary. In the educational field, one example of the new uses of technology is the use of distance learning using online instruction via the Internet. In addition to technology, issues that impact the living and professional environments are the decentralization of all processes, globalization, and the democratization of society."

The concepts that I mentioned, since they exist in the realm of ideas (as expressed in Plato's Theory of Forms), are lasting but any manisfestations of them within the physical world are transitory so, for example, the concept of democracy is enduring but the methods of implementing it are temporary as are the tools and applications of technology.

Reference: 

Alexander, A. & Serfass R. (1999). Futuring Tools for Strategic Quality Planning in Education. Milwaukee, Wisconsin: Quality Press.
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u8d1 Comment to Liston:

Your idea that the future is a continuation of present trends is very well expressed and I particularly like the final thought that mentions that "the present informs our future(s) and that making our world better today must be the point of embarkation for any effort to predict the future." After all, that is the purpose of all of our endeavors: to make the world of the future better for everyone.

Richard
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u8d1 Comment to Lisa

The President Kennedy mission to the moon example you gave provides a good illustration of how an idea can be implanted in the minds of the public and then carried out according to plan. His plan involved a 10 year realization period so long-term sequential and systematic planning coordinated by experts in the field of endeavor is essential when planning such future projects. The public also became committed to achieving his goal and that commitment solidified after his assassination giving the nation a positive united cause.

Richard
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Carolyn,

To answer your question, I see the trend of the growth of technology as continuing and accelerating.

Richard
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Karen,

The Merriam-Webster Dictionary (2004) definition of "expert" is "one with the special skill or knowledge representing mastery of a particular subject". Though there might be some semantic variations of the term I don't think that definition includes vision or imagination though there may be some individuals, such as the ones you mentioned, that are expert and visionary.

Richard
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The visual arts, writing, and leadership (and others, including music) can have people who function at an expert level but the the great practioners of the arts would have what could be referred to as talent (or genius if they achieve a level or insight beyond that which has been previously achieved) and the experts in those areas mostly -- mostly -- would perform analytical, theoretical, or historical research functions related to those disciplines and a few of those might also be practitioners of those mentioned disciplines.

Richard
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Howard,

I plan on having the paper submitted by June 15, 2004 (as opposed to 2005 or some other year).

The format will be in Adobe Reader -- which every has or can get as a free download from the Web or from Capella -- which was the same program as the futuring tree was presented in.  Richard
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14. Several medical committees are instituted to study methods of reviving the horse.  Richard
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u10d1: Post a reflection on the course material and its application to real environments. What do you perceive to be the strengths and weaknesses of the futuring process?.

One idea that should be considered concerning looking into the future is that if someone really had the ability to see the future, or if they could ride in H.G. Well's Time Machine, and if they saw something horrible, catastrophic, or tragic -- as far as human occurances are concerned -- then they would be tormented by the fact that nothing could be done to alter the foreseen future, otherwise, if they could change the course of events to prevent the horrible foreseen future, then what they saw was not the future. Futuring can also involve exploring possible, multiple future scenarios (I just returned from seeing a movie, The Butterfly Effect, which explores the idea of multiple histories on a personal level). It might be best, as mentioned in the scenario building and futuring tree sections, to suggest possible futures and then do what needs to be done to achieve the desired future goal.

The course text describes seven futuring tools -- Trend Extrapolation, the Delphi Technique, Morphological Analysis, the Crawford Slip Method, Scenario Planning, Cross-Impact Analysis, and Futuring Trees -- which, to be effective, should satisfy criteria of functionality, simplicity, time-testedness, and interconnectivity. The future can be looked into by psychics, dreamers, visionaries, and artists and it can be planned by ordinary people, experts, and organizations using the futuring methods that we were exposed to during the unfolding of the information in this course.

The future will always be a mystery and unknowable but we can use futuring methods to plan for and affect a future partly of our own making.  Richard

Reference: 

Alexander, A. & Serfass R. (1999). Futuring Tools for Strategic Quality Planning in Education. Milwaukee, Wisconsin: Quality Press.
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I've seen it used often but what does "nnto" stand for?
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Thank you.

And you have a great day, too (and year and life),  Richard

P.S. UCO means "you can open" ;-)
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use appendix from ED 7701 and bibliography
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Cut and Add to this:
PAPER:
The Future of Educational Institutions
and the Relation of the Future to the 
Implementation of Direct Democracy

ED 815
The Future of Educational Institutions
Spring 2004
Richard Bloodworth
P.O. Box 78123
Atlanta, GA 30357
RBloodworth99@yahoo.com
Dr. Howard Jacobs

Contents
Abstract
Introduction: Scanning the Environment
Issues of Today and for the Future
The Future and Education
Rationale for Direct Democracy
Futuring Tools
A Vignette of the Future
Trend Extrapolation
The Delphi Technique
Scenario Building
Illustration I - Scenario Building
Futuring Trees
Illustration II - Futuring Tree
Conclusion
Bibliography
Webliography
Websites related to Direct Democracy
Appendix I   Curriculum
Appendix II   Action Plan
Appendix III  Open-Ended Questions for Social Studies and Political Science Teachers
Appendix IV   Likert Scale Items Survey for, the Public, Legislators, and Social Studies and Political Science Teachers:

Abstract
Technology and social movements are changing the world educationally, socially, politically, environmentally, economically, and culturally at a rapid pace.  The issue of technology is permanent in the sense that technology will always affect how life and educational processes are conducted, however,  new technologies are constantly being introduced so that one needs to constantly become acquainted with and trained in new technological techniques so, in that sense, the effects of technology are transitory or temporary. The concepts previously mentioned, since they exist in the realm of ideas (as expressed in Plato's Theory of Forms), are lasting but any manisfestations of them within the physical world are transitory so, for example, the concept of democracy is enduring but the methods of implementing it are temporary as are the tools and applications of technology.  An example of the use of new technology is online, distance learning using the World Wide Web, a concept which is the wave of the future in this global information age in which we all reside.  This paper explores the future uses of the accelerating growth of technology and the educational system especially for the implementation of direct democracy in the United States of America and in the world.
Introduction: Scanning the Environment and Methods of exploring the Future
One method of examining the future is speculation by futurologists.  Some of these are: John Naisbitt (Megatrends, Megatrends 2000, Megatrends Asia), Alvin Toffler (Future Shock, The Third Wave), and Hamish McRae (The World in 2020).
Also the contribution of science fiction writers, artists, and inventors should be mentioned.   Science fiction writers such as Jules Verne (television, submarines, space travel), H.G. Wells (social systems, beyond earth communication), Arthur Clarke (satellites), and Mary Shelly (organ transplants) all helped shape the present with their imagination.  Also,artists, inventors and imaginative geniuses such as Leonardo da Vinci (airplane, bicycle, etc.) and Thomas Edison (light bulb, phonograph, and motion picture film, cameras, and projectors, etc.) helped move society and technology towards the future as well.  These examples could be considered as types of Scenario Planning.
In exploring the future, one area that can not be overlooked is the supernatural. In Asia, on many street corners and in some areas entire sections of a street, there are fortune tellers who reveal or look into a person's future for a fee.  They can use tarot cards, palm reading, dreams, thoughts, and numerology to look into the future. Some use crystal balls, interpret prohets or psychics' (such as Nostradamas) enigmatic predictions, and some people might use witchcraft, Ouija Boards, seances, in addition to other methods.  People also refer to horoscopes to discover the future or make decisions about the future.  In religious approaches, people also pray to have an affect on the future.  People can also use superstitious devices such as holding a lucking charm or not engaging in some potentially inauspicious superstitious activities. There are also more random approaches to affecting the future such as gambling or throwing dice.  Though many people do not believe in some of these activities, these activities do have an affect on the future since some people -- even some presidents and world leaders -- base some of their decisions about the future on these methods.
Other events or ideas that affect the future are: technology, social movements, religion, attitudes, wars, the economy, health or disease, environmental conditions, and natural and man-made conditions and catastrophes to name a few.
Seven futuring tools mentioned in Futuring Tools for Strategic Quality Planning in Education (1999, Alexander, A. & Serfass R.) are Trend Extrapolation, the Delphi Technique, Morphological Analysis, the Crawford Slip Method, Scenario Planning, Cross-Impact Analysis, and Futuring Trees, all of which should satisfy four criteria of functionality, simplicity, time-testedness, and interconnectivity.
The Future and Education
In the educational field, one example of the new uses of technology is the use of distance learning using online instruction via the Internet using the invention of the Millennium Technology Prize recipient, Tim Berners-Lee.  In addition to technology, issues that impact the living and professional environments are the decentralization of all processes, globalization, and the democratization of society.  An example of a new use of technology is online and distance learning which are the wave of the future in this global information age in which we all reside.  In addition to technology, issues that impact the living and professional environments are the decentralization of all processes, globalization, and the democratization of society.  My interest is in developing, by utilizing the educational system, a system of direct democracy which is essentially having citizens vote directly on legislative issues rather than only electing representatives who can, after elected, vote any way they choose.  The implementation of a direct democracy was considered impractical, or not possible, on a large scale, but now with the advent of computer and Internet technology it is possible and feasible.
Thomas Heaney in Adult Education for Social Change: From Center Stage to the Wings and Back Again views adult education as participatory and as a tool for social change where educational progressivism is the modern approach to educating the public.  " 'Adult education turns out to be the most reliable instrument for social actionists' since it assures that any action undertaken would be authentically democratic" (Brookfield 1984).  Eduard Lindeman, as influenced by John Dewey (Democracy and Education), considers adult education to be intertwined with democracy, social action, and control by people over their daily decisions.  To Lindeman, adult education equals social change, a method to create good and productive citizens.  Even if education is viewed as a "great selector" rather than a "great equalizer" (p. 4),  each person can, as a result of education, find their niche, based on their abilities and merits, within a democratic society.   The concept of using the educational system to implement a direct democracy is closely connected with the ideas expressed by Heaney, Miles Horton, Paulo Freire, and Jack Mezirow since their approach is to empower the populace through education in order to create a democratic society.  It is necessary to have an educated public in order to have a direct democracy work efficiently so democracy is dependent the educational system to survive and prosper.  
Direct democracy is a concept which began in ancient Athens, Greece where all citizens voted directly on legislative issues.  In the modern world, direct democracy was considered impractical to implement on a large scale but it is now possible with the advent of computer and Internet technologies.  I think some version of what I am proposing will happen in the future since people should determine their own future and methods of government which is, after all,  the meaning of democracy even though there is always resistence and skepticism to new ideas -- though beginning 2500 years ago, democracy can hardly be considered a new idea.  The same people who are concerned about Internet fraud for voting are probably unconcerned about online banking transactions, which is how practically all funds are transferred nowadays, and the same type of technology can be used in Internet voting.  Also, perhaps some legislators feel that their jobs and roles are threatened but my idea involves adding direct democracy to the representative legislatures and not replacing them completely.
Rationale for Direct Democracy
One challenge in the implementation of a direct democracy is the method or curriculum for dispensing the information in cultural institutions such as schools.
Democracy was discussed by Socrates and written about by Plato in Republic, Aristotle in Politics, Machiavelli in The Prince, Locke in Essay Concerning Human Understanding and Two Treatises of Government, Montesquieu in The Spirit of Laws, Hobbes in Leviathan, Rousseau in The Social Contract, and Thomas Jefferson in his writings. Democracy was first used in Athens, Greece before 500 B.C., where each citizen voted directly on all legislative issues, thereby being a true democracy. Direct participatory democracy was considered impractical before now, primarily because there was no technology to supply it. Now, with computer and Internet technology, there is.  Computer and Internet technology can supply the forum for the voting of citizens to occur and schools and community and governmental organizations can supply the knowledge, information, and training for the implementation and continuing use of a direct democracy.
When the United States Constitution was written, the forefathers wrote an all-encompassing and a sweeping document that is still relevant, has stood the test of time, and has withstood the difficulties, controversies, and amendments that have occurred during its existence. But this document was written around 1776 and the society at the time was very different from the society of today. The forefathers, even with all of their foresight and all-inclusiveness were not able to factor in dramatic future changes in technology and, resultingly, in society. They could not have foreseen a future with telephones, radios, televisions, cars, airplanes, jet engines, rockets, computers, the Internet, etc. Now that the new technologies are here and will continue to grow, advance, and be perfected, we need to examine how this affects society, the government, and the Constitution.

In its military campaigns the government of the United States says it wants to promote and protect democracy. But is the United States a democracy? No, it is a republic or a representative democracy. An example of a democracy within the United States federal goverment is the U.S. Congress where the members debate and vote usually for a simple majority to win a case or a referendum or to pass a bill. When a presidential election is held today well over 100 million people can vote. The United States Constitution created the electoral college for, I have heard, several reasons and one of them is to prevent mob rule (but isn't that what democracy is?) or for a government run by the uneducated (though now, most people are receiving high levels of education in comparison with the past of the forefathers). Another possible reason that the electoral college was institutionalized was because, at the time the Constitution was written, if a national election were to be held, tallying the votes would be an almost impossible task. Then, a sack of votes, or the results of local voting, would have to be sent by a messenger riding horseback. Just carrying the votes from California (or Georgia, during the time of the 13 colonies) to Washington, D.C. could take weeks, that is, if they ever got to their destination. Today, we live in a very different world where messages are transmitted instantaneously worldwide via telephones, computers, or the Internet.

My idea is not to eliminate the U.S. Congress as it exists now but to add a new section: the Public Assembly. The passage of a bill would require a majority vote in each of the 3 sections: the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the Public Assembly. The difference in the three sections is that the Public Assembly would have many more voters. (A similar concept could be utilized on the state and local levels also). Some might think of the idea as revolutionary but I prefer to call it evolutionary. I think the technology of computers and the Internet is much more revolutionary and what could be more revolutionary and radical than the American Revolutionary War and the accompanying documents of independence? The Iraq War is also revolutionary but it was instigated externally whereas the American Revolution was instigated internally by the local inhabitants who understood the culture in which they lived -- and that is a big difference.

After the 2000 Presidential election, and since the Democratic candidate, Al Gore, got at least 530,000 more of the public's votes, it was surprising that, during the aftermath of that election, there was not a movement, or even a discussion, about a replacement of the Electoral College system but apparently most people seem to be accepting of that system at the present time. Also, the concept of the Public Assembly, would not necessarily exclude the existence of the Electoral College, that is a separate issue and it could be decided at some future time to either modify or eliminate that system.  With my described idea it would be possible to retain the Electoral College and still have the Public Assembly.  The preferred method of implementation of this idea is to proceed in an evolutionary, gradual, and non-violent way and build the system by avoiding the mistakes of , and building on the successes, of the past.

Basic principles and concepts, such as the laws of physics, are enduring however our interpretation or of their explanations or our theories about them may change over time as well as the methods of implementing some principles. People's attitudes and beliefs as well as technology are always changing, so it can be said the only constant in life is change. As expressed in a Buddhist saying: "you never put your foot into the same river twice." I think the idea of democracy has been constant throughout history but the institutions that implement the principles can be diverse, temporary, or changing. The idea I have presented, the idea of direct democracy, might be thought of as being too new for some people, though it can hardly be said that an idea that originated before 500BC can be thought of as new.

A Curriculum for the Implementation of Direct Democracy:
The curriculum would include the concept that democracy is one of the essential principles to be instilled through the educational system and follow the philosophy of essentialism which states that some trends, topics, or subjects are timeless and universal -- and are therefore essential to learn -- and should always be included in every person's education.  The social studies and political science classes would introduce, early in the development of the curriculum -- during the elementary school years -- the first concepts of democracy as government based on the will of and for the good of the people or society.  The curriculum would eventually include the history of democracy beginning with ancient Athens, Greece (and before) and its present forms of use today in various countries and institutions and studies of its various methods of execution.  Also included in the course curriculum would be computer skills courses since thorough knowledge of computer and Internet usage would be needed to implement and sustain the continuing use of a direct democracy.  Once the system is establablished and the procedures for its execution are in place and all of the necessary legislation is passed to secure its structure, procedural content, and continuing existence, the voters, or potential voters (who perhaps would require secured registration, training, and perhaps certification to qualify to vote), would learn how to research and read about issues to be voted on at the local, state, and national levels.  Computer tutorials could also be developed to teach the learners how this is done and even provide some practice voting sessions and hypothetical situations to which they can respond.
After, and even before and during the discussion and implementation of a direct democracy system, the most important aspect of creating a system whereby the information and training necessary to maintain a direct democracy is to establish a curriculum, including the methods, institutions, and locations to dispense that information.  The information could be dispensed in schools, both public and private, in home schooling situations, on the Internet, in books and magazines, and through commercial, governmental, and community organizations.  The most wide-ranging method of disseminating this information would be through the public school system and colleges and universities.
The information could begin at home with the parents reading to their children with early learner books. The curriculum could begin with the pre-kindergarten students by having the students vote for what they like by placing balls into baskets and by showing flash cards showing the most basic ideas involved about the concept of democracy.  The curriculum could progress up through the school system through the school system: through kindergarten, elementary, junior high school, high school, then through colleges and universities as well as specialized schools, post-secondary institutions, and other forms of adult education.
Though the process can begin in part before that time, the proposed plan could take a generation of time to fully implement -- and then it would continue to grow and evolve beyond that -- which may sound like a long time compared to a human life span but is in fact a short time in historical perspective (and unnoticeable in the scale of an astronomical or a geological timeline). For now, this method can be done in conjunction with traditional paper ballots but in a generation of time people will be as familiar computers and Internet technology as your father is now with telephones (or now obsolete typewriters and vinyl records).
Vignette of the Future

From The Revolution Begins with You:

This vignette imagines a rebel superintendent in Arizona in the year 2010 expressing her opinion and approach at a teachers' meeting:

"I'm glad to be here today," she begins. "I have the rules and regulations of this school district in my hand." She uncovers the object on the table and begins feeding the sheets into a paper shredder.  "Nothing will stand in the way of learning in this community," she continues. "Before you utter the first 'but,' know that I am prepared to march with you from the school board to the state capitol to Washington to get you what you need, and we will take parents and neighbors with us. If I could give you money today, I would. What I can give you is the authority to start a revolution in your classroom, in every classroom and school, in this community.  Name a social challenge, and there is a corresponding expectation that public schools will respond: violence, teen pregnancy, public health issues, and religious intolerance. Public schools are asked to address all these controversial issues and more in an increasingly transparent world where all decisions are subject to public scrutiny".

The term and concept of evolution, rather than revolution, can be used when changes are involved, especially social changes such as changes in the educational system. When change is to occur, a slow and natural growth is always the preferred method rather than a sudden, radical change of events and values, which usually only creates more problems of a different sort (witness the problems that are occurring now and that will continue to occur in Iraq, for example). To disagree with policies and react by destroying documents or, worse, by resorting to violence is usually an uncivilized way of expressing disagreement though at times there can be justification for civil disobedience as was the case with the Boston Tea Party or certain civil rights or anti-war protests especially during the 1960s. Also, sometimes expressing disagreement by following the prescribed channels of procedure is nonproductive or ineffective since those channels are often devised so that no or little change can actually take place and this is particularly true in highly bureaucratic and centralized societies. 

The possibility now exists for revolutionary educational reform to occur in Iraq but with the infrastructure and public morale being destroyed daily it would be almost impossible to implement anything such as a new educational system at the present time. First their immediate biological needs would have to be satisfied and the infrastructure built or rebuilt, developed, and continued and then the processes of the educational system could be attended to. All of these processes would need to be considered simultaneously, not one after the other, but the basic needs (in the order of most to least essential of Maslow's hiearchy of needs: physiological, safety, belonging, esteem, and self-actualization) are the most essential of the needs that should be filled. Students in the United States or developed countries might have a fear or dislike of some aspects of school or of taking tests and so on but in Iraq the students and teachers have the additional fear of school for the reason that a bomb could explode there (or anywhere). The expressed and hidden agenda of introducing a new educational system might be to promote democracy and equality in Iraq (which was originally Mesopotamia -- the Cradle of Civilization) and the Middle East but some Islamic fundamentalists think that the hidden agenda is to defeat Islam and replace it with Christianity, making the Iraq War (of 2002 to the present) to them a modern day Crusades. 

In Strategies of Change Steven Vago states that planned social change, or social planning, consists of three components: targets, agents, and methods. Targets are the intended recipients of change, agents are the initiators or instigators of the change processes, and methods are how the goals of the change processes are implemented and, if successful, achieved. Change agents influence, promote, and implement innovation. Change methods comprise three broad categories according to Vago. The first are empirical-rational strategies which assume that people are rational and follow their mutually beneficial self-interests. The second are normative-reeducative strategies which state that people must change from antiquated ways to new ones. The third are power-coercive strategies which apply pressure using economic, moral, political, or even physical power or force. I think the empirical-rational should be the first attempted method in all cases with the others being resorted to only if it is determined that, for some reason, the empirical-rational is not effective in a particular situation. Of the three components of social change procedures -- targets, agents, and methods -- the issue of ethics is mostly concerned with the methods used by the agents to affect change in the target group. Effective planned change is change where the desired results of the change agents are achieved. In all cases, the right and civilized way to affect change is through rational, non-violent methods and a violent approach always leads to disaster.

As previously mentioned, technology and social movements are rapidly changing the world in many areas including educationally, socially, politically, environmentally, economically, and culturally. In the educational field, one example of the new uses of technology is the use of distance learning using online instruction via the Internet. In addition to technology, issues that impact the living and professional environments are the decentralization of all processes, globalization, and the democratization of society. In my idea of teaching and implementing the processes of direct democracy in the United States (as is practiced now in Switzerland, for example), the citizens would have a more direct affect on the legislative and governmental policies under which they must live and these changes would occur and progress at a natural pace.

Following are discussions of Trend Extrapolation, the Delphi Technique, Scenario Planning, and Futuring Trees.
Trend Extrapolation
Trend Extrapolation is the "identification, collection, and analysis of past and present trend patterns and their probable impact on the future of an organization" (1999, Alexander, W. & Serfass, R.).
Concerning Trend Extrapolation, several trends that affect society and educational systems come to mind.  Some of these trends are:
New technology -- Technology will continue to make the the people and machines of the world function faster and more efficiently but it also has the potential of making the world more dangerous.
Population growth -- one estimate is that the population will continue to increase at a rate of about one billion people every ten years making the population of 6 billion in the present grow to about 11 billion in the year 2050 and this will have an impact on all facets of society.
Decentralization  -- The processes of society are becoming decentralized and democratized.  This is now possible with new technology and besides making people able to communicate over great distances it also adds a level of security and strength to a population or nation since all of the people and resources are spread around a large area rather than all gathered together into one potential target area.
Globalization  -- Travel and communications technology are bringing the  world closer together and businesses and organizations are establishing their operations worldwide thus creating a blending of local and foreign (foreign to the local culture, that is) cultures into one new world culture.
Diversification of interests and populations  -- People now have access to a wide range of cultural interests, professions, hobbies, and educational opportunities in which they can engage.
Standardization of services -- In order to assure the above mentioned efficiency of technology, labor intensive processes will become more standardized
Henry Ford used the idea of an assembly line, called Fordism, where every worker was essentially equal but performed a specialized function in the production process and F.W. Taylor (1949) studied a lateral, rather than top-down, system of production, with labor being distributed in a lateral net-work rather than a hierarchy. 
A. Chandler's study "Strategy and Structure (1962) shed light on the American corporation, focusing on General Motors (headed by A. Sloan in the 1930s) and du Pont. Chandler analysed the defects of the centralised, functionally departmentalised structure and argued that the bigger a company grows, the more inefficient a hierarchy gets because the management can no longer deal with the increasing complexity of coordinating people. He concluded that decentralization will flourish, as it allows large companies to establish an organizational platform for better communication and co-ordination." (Dafermos, 2001).  As a result of this trend, responsibilities within large organizations will be distributed into a series of groups and sub-groups all the way "down" to the individual.
With computers, telephones, and other communication and travel technologies it is no longer necessary to put everyone in a company or organization in the same building or location thus physically decentralizing organizations. Relative security from terrorism is another justification for decentralization.  The events of September, 11, 2001 showed us that it is putting many people together in one spot creates a potential target for terrorists.  The same argument can be made concerning cities too so that populations will begin to span out all around they countyside thus providing that much more security against any sort of 9-11 attack.
Democratization occurs not only through the ballot box of politics but also in social attitudes and in the capitalization of a free market society where each consumer or potential customer "votes" for a particular product or service with his or her money.  Even China is becoming more economically privatized and capitalistic.
Concerning democratization, some, such as many people in the Asian countries, find some aspects of democracy (such as political campaigns) distasteful and undignified.  Also, I think some their thinking goes along the lines of: "You wouldn't want an untrained person to pilot your airplane or perform surgery on you, would you?"  So I think they think of people running the government as pilots of the "airplane" or ship of a nation and would not want untrained, unqualified people elected by the public running a government.   I think some areas of governmental policy need to be determined by experts (but how are those experts to be selected?) -- but elected legislators are not expert in all areas either.  I think some issues would need to be screened, examined, and written about by expert committees -- these are usually people university-educated in specificialized subjects -- and their policies voted on by a consortium of peers educated within that particular field but other issues can be decided on by the voting public and some issues by certified voters.  Guidelines would need to be established (ay, there's the rub) to determine into which categories the issues to be decided on are to be placed.
The North Central Regional Educational Laboratory article, Policy Issue Scanning -- Emerging Policy Issues mentions the trend toward standardization of curricula (but the customization of methods) and the availability of education to all and the assurance that every student is to receive at least a basic education and it mentions that "customized learning could be the counterrevolution to this current emphasis on standards-based education." The article recognizes a trend toward customized learning which can accommodate different rates and styles of student learning so that individualized learning plans can accommodate different rates and styles of student learning and the use of technology-enabled learning platforms, such as online courses, that connect students to options and resources beyond their classrooms.

The article includes a definition of the phrase "emerging issue" and how one is to scan for signs of an emerging issue so that a good seed can be grown and a bad seed can be either not planted or nipped even prior to becoming a bud. There is also a discussion as to how to initiate a strategic discussion about the future.  In inititiating change, the article suggests to think about "customizing and expanding learning opportunities", of schools as living systems, and of schools within social and historical context. The article asks: "What signs of leadership do you already see emerging in response to these issues?" and "What conditions would favor this leadership flourishing?"

In responding to possible future scenarios, the article lists three main issues that have emerged: quality, technology, and equality. This involves supplying quality education to all and the use of technology, such as online courses, to achieve this.

Quality -- Impacts of Choice in Education. This also is through the use of technology and access and students will in the future have a wide range of choices with which to achieve their own goals and ultimately their self-actualization.

Technology -- Relation of Education to Social Change. This involves the general decentralization of society and of the educational system and the use of the educational system for the democratization of society and for positive social change and reform.

	Equality -- Provocative Ideas in the Present
.

The Delphi Technique

The Delphi Technique is "a multi-step systematic process for extracting expert intuitive expectations of alternative futures" (1999, Alexander, W. & Serfass, R.) through the use of a series of expert panels.
The Delphi Technique alludes somewhat to the issue of fortune telling that I referred to in a previous discussion area but in this case the fortune telling, or guessing, is done by panels of experts. The term Delphi Technique refers to the perhaps mythical psychic forecaster of ancient Greece from the Greek mountain temple city of Delphi. The difference is that the oracle there, during those times, obtained the information through divine connection or introspection whereas the expert panels derive their information through educated guessing and speculation.

The Delphi Technique could also be considered as similar to a jury in a court of law or a jury of judges in a juried event such as an art show or a sports event. However, the difference is that a jury in a court of law is more or less a random collection of judges who are not specialists and who are not necessarily a jury of peers -- as they are often purported to be -- whereas a panels of experts are trained and experienced within a particular discipline or area of study. The panel of experts can try to not only foresee the future but also can suggest guidelines to be used with which to arrive at a desired future goal and suggest ways of avoiding potential pitfalls.The Delphi procedure involves a series of discussions and questionnaires, some of which can be anonymous, to obtain information from which decisions are made, conclusions are drawn, and forecasts are developed.
The Merriam-Webster Dictionary (2004) definition of "expert" is "one with the special skill or knowledge representing mastery of a particular subject". Though there might be some semantic variations of the term I don't think that definition includes vision or imagination though there may be some individuals, such as the ones you mentioned, that are expert and visionary.  The visual arts, writing, and leadership (and others, including music) can have people who function at an expert level but the the great practioners of the arts would have what could be referred to as talent (or genius if they achieve a level or insight beyond that which has been previously achieved) and the experts in those areas mostly -- mostly -- would perform analytical, theoretical, or historical research functions related to those disciplines and a few of those might also be practitioners of those mentioned disciplines.
We are today still concerned with the issues such as genetic engineering (cloning and stem cell research), climate change (global warming including the new movie about the subject, The Day After Tomorrow), germ warfare (al-Qaida and others), and how the countries of India and China were working to create nuclear weapons (we are still concerned about nuclear weapons in these countries as well as the search for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and North Korea, among others). Unfortunately, much of the weapons of mass destruction information concerning the middle east was obtained via word of mouth from defectors from those countries rather than from experts so more expert knowledge could have been used in those pursuits. There are also ethical issues associated with entrusting experts with potentially harmful information such as what occurred recently, in Pakistan where it was revealed that the head nuclear scientist there had been selling nuclear material, technology, and technological information to various governments including Iran and North Korea over the past several years. 

Expert scientists and scholars generally base their thoughts on history and on their collective knowledge and experience within their field of expertise. However, experts are generally regarded for the above mentioned values and not for their imagination or visions of the future and they generally tend to mention what can not be done rather than what can or should be done based on precedents and their knowledge of history within their field.

Experts should be highly regarded within the fields of their endeavors and they are repositories of relevant information within the field of their expertise and they are expert mostly in the areas of history and factual information. An expert should be highly educated -- usually educated within a formal educational setting but also, possibly, within an empirical or experiential environment -- within the field of their expertise. The experts, however, are generally not known for their imagination, innovation, and creativity, and that is where the ordinary citizens, as well as visionaries, artists, writers, and the like, come into play as they can submit ideas for the experts' scrutiny for plans for the best possible future for the most people. This process also demonstrates the value of democracy, the Internet, and other new technologies. If two heads are better than one then how much better are 6 billion heads (or selecting from 6 billion heads)? A good future might include some factor of luck, or being in the right place at the right time, but more often than not, it is the result of careful planning and the systematic execution of those plans. So experts and scientists, in concert with other sources, can play a vital role in guiding -- if not predicting -- the present towards a desirable future.

My idea of proposing and developing a direct democracy system would involve continuous panels of experts and this could be considered a type of a Delphi method. The previously mentioned extrapolated trends (new technology, population growth, decentralization, globalization, diversification of interests and populations, and standardization of services) would be incorporated into the future plan development process. After, and even before and during the discussion and implementation of a direct democracy system, the most important aspect of creating a system whereby the information and training necessary to maintain a direct democracy is realized, is to establish a curriculum -- including the methods, institutions, and locations -- to dispense that information. The information could be dispensed in schools, both public and private, in home schooling situations, on the Internet, in books and magazines, and through commercial, governmental, and community organizations. The most wide-ranging method of disseminating this information would be through the public school system and colleges and universities. 

The concept would involve exploring what methods have been used previously to establish direct democracies (which are defined as the public voting directly on issues rather than through elected representatives who can, after being elected, vote any way they choose.), the history of democracy beginning with ancient Greece, and establishing a curriculum to be used to teach the principles and techniques of direct democracy in schools -- primarily through social studies and political science classes. This could be achieved through a series of discussions, panels, and questionnaires involving a wide variety of stake holders and educated experts within given fields. The surveys and questionnaires could be given to the general public, politicians, and specialists within specified areas. Concerning how to introduce, implement, develop, and sustain a direct democracy by utilizing the educational system, the process would involve obtaining ideas from social studies and political science teachers for developing a curriculum. One approach would be to send an emailed questionnaire to Social Studies and Political Science teachers in public and private schools who teach levels from kindergarten to the twelfth grade and to those who teach in the post-secondary and adult education learning environments. The questionnaire could contain closed-ended and open-ended questions in addition to a blank suggestion space at the end of the questionnaire where the instructors can add any thoughts that they may have on the subject.

As the concept of direct democracy develops, and as it comes into daily use, there would constantly be the need for the advice of expert opinion. In areas of specialized knowledge, in medicine for example, governmental policies would need to be derived from experts within those areas and those ideas could be exchanged though the procedures of the Delphi Technique.

The process could be used for each of the above-mentioned areas of development and for the maintenance of a system of direct democracy but the initial example of a survey of teachers is mentioned here:

Select a Team: 
This would be a team of educators and government workers

Identify the Main Issue: 
How to teach the history, concepts, and procedures of direct democracy in schools and alternative methods.

Develop a Questionnaire: 
Suggestions for questions are submitted by a collection of authors.

Select a Panel of Experts: 
A panel of governmental and educational experts selects the questions for the questionnaires. 

First-Round Survey  (Appendixes III and IV) and Tally: 
These are collected from paper and emailed surveys

Second-Round Survey and Tally

Third-Round Survey and Tally

Interpret the Results: 
These are interpreted by the initial team, the panel of experts, and a third panel formed for the purpose of interpreting the results.

Scenario Planning

Scenario Planning is "a process for developing stories or a likely series of events that provide probable futures for the purposes of decision making" (1999, Alexander, W. & Serfass, R.)

Four possible future societal scenarios are listed below:

Scenario 1: eastern-style hierarchal, Confucian democracy

Scenario 2: totalitarianism, communism

Scenario 3: direct democracy

Scenario 4: representative democracy

<INSERT SCENARIO BUILDING PDF HERE>

Futuring Trees
A futuring tree provides "a process for connecting an organization's future state with its present state through a network of pathways working from the future to the present.  (1999, Alexander, W. & Serfass, R.). 

<ADD FUTURING TREE PDF ILLUSTRATION HERE>

Conclusion
One idea that should be considered concerning looking into the future is that if someone really had the ability to see the future, or if they could ride in H.G. Well's Time Machine, and if they saw something horrible, catastrophic, or tragic -- as far as human occurances are concerned -- then they would be tormented by the fact that nothing could be done to alter the foreseen future, otherwise, if they could change the course of events to prevent the horrible foreseen future, then what they saw was not the future. Futuring can also involve exploring possible, multiple future scenarios (I just returned from seeing a movie, The Butterfly Effect, which explores the idea of multiple histories on a personal level). It might be best, as mentioned in the scenario building and futuring tree sections, to suggest possible futures and then do what needs to be done to achieve the desired future goal.
Concerning the implementation of a direct democracy: democracy was discussed by Socrates and written about by Plato in Republic, Aristotle in Politics, Machiavelli in The Prince, Locke in Essay Concerning Human Understanding and Two Treatises of Government, Montesquieu in The Spirit of Laws, Hobbes in Leviathan, Rousseau in The Social Contract, and Thomas Jefferson in his writings. Democracy was first used in Athens, Greece before 500 B.C., where each citizen voted directly on all legislative issues, thereby being a true democracy. Direct participatory democracy was considered impractical before now, primarily because there was no technology to supply it. Now, with computer and Internet technology, there is.  Computer and Internet technology can supply the forum for the voting of citizens to occur and schools and community and governmental organizations can supply the knowledge, information, and training for the implementation and continuing use of a direct democracy.
The book, Futuring Tools for Strategic Quality Planning in Education, describes seven futuring tools -- Trend Extrapolation, the Delphi Technique, Morphological Analysis, the Crawford Slip Method, Scenario Planning, Cross-Impact Analysis, and Futuring Trees -- which, to be effective, should satisfy criteria of functionality, simplicity, time-testedness, and interconnectivity. The future can be looked into by psychics, dreamers, visionaries, and artists and it can be planned by ordinary people, experts, and organizations using the above described futuring methods.

The future will always be a mystery and unknowable but we can use futuring methods to plan for and affect a future partly of our own making.

References and Bibliography:
Alexander, A. & Serfass R. (1999). Futuring Tools for Strategic Quality Planning in Education. Milwaukee, Wisconsin: Quality Press.

Aronowitz, S., Martinsons, B., Menser, M., and Rich, J. (1996). Technoscience and Cyberculture.  New York and London: Routledge.

Becker, T. & Slaton, C.D.  (2000).  The Future of Teledemocracy.  Praeger Publishers.

Benhabib, S., and Dallmayr, F. (1990). The Communicative Ethics Controversy. London: The MIT Press.

Blaug, Ricardo (1999). Democracy: Real and Ideal, Discourse Ethics and Radical Politics. Albany, New York: State University of New York Press.

Bowler, S., Donovan, T. & Tolbert, C. (1998).  Citizens As Legislators: Direct Democracy in the United States.  Columbus, OH: Ohio State University Press.

Bowler, S, & Donovan, T. (2001).   Demanding Choices: Opinion, Voting, and Direct Democracy.  Ann Arbour, MI: University of Michigan Press.

Browning, G. & Powell, A.C. (2002).  Electronic Democracy: Using the Internet to Transform American Politics. Cyberage Books.

Budge, Ian. (1997).   The New Challenge of Direct Democracy.  Polity Press. 

Bushell, Sue. (2003).  Where to Now for E-Voting?  Retrieved January. 24, 2004 from:  http://www.cio.com.au/index.php?id=405941257&eid=-601

Caldwell, John Thornton. (2000). Electronic Media and Technoculture. New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press.

Castells. Information Technology, Globalization, and Social Development.

Chomsky, N. (1994). Democracy and Education. Retrieved January 24, 2004 from  http://www.zmag.org/chomsky/talks/9410-education.html

Corrado, A. & Firestone, C.M.  (1997).  Elections in Cyberspace:  Toward a New Era in American Politics.   Aspen, CO: Aspen Institute Publications Office.

Cronin, Thomas E. (1999).  Direct Democracy: The Politics of Initiative, Referendum & Recall. Cambridge, MA and London: Harvard University Press.
Becker, T. & Slaton, C.D.  (2000).  The Future of Teledemocracy.  New York: Praeger Publishers.
Dafermos, G.  (2001).  Management and Virtual Decentralized Networks: The Linus Project.   Retrieved March 30, 2004 from http://www.firstmonday.dk/issues/issue6_11/dafermos/#d2

Dewey, John.  (1997).  Democracy and Education: An Introduction to the Philosophy of Education.  New York: Free Press, Simon & Schuster.

Dillman, Don. (2000). Mail and Internet Surveys: The Tailored Designed Method. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Fossedal, Gregory A. (2002).  Direct Democracy in Switzerland. Transaction Publications.
  
Gerber, E. R., Lupia, A., McCubbins, M.D. & Kiewiet, D.R. (2000). Stealing the Initiative: How State Government Responds to Direct Democracy. Prentice Hall.

Haskell, John. (2000).  Direct Democracy or Representative Government?: Dispelling the Populist Myth.  Boulder, CO: Westview Press.

Heaney, Thomas. Adult Education for Social Change: From Center Stage to the Wings and Back Again.  (1996).  Retrieved on January 15, 2004 from  http://www.nl.edu/ace/Resources/Documents/ERIC1.html

Isin, Engin F. (2000).  Democracy, Citizenship and the Global City.  New York and London: Routledge.

Lebihan, Rachel. (2003). Arm Twisting to Hinder Home Electronic Voting.  Retrieved on October 24, 2003 from http://www.zdnet.com.au/newstech/communications/story/0,2000048620,20265293,00.htm

MacNamara, O'Donnell.  Developing e-Citizens and e-Consumers, an Irish e-Commerce Case Study.   http://66.218.71.225/search/cache?p=The+E-citizen.+Instructional+Technology.,+Lee,+John+K.++&sub=Search&ei=UTF-8&url=fe_aPyZrSDAJ:www.efmd.be/learninggroups/chapter/eisb2001proceedings/pdfs/MacNamara%2520%2520O%27Donnell%2520.pdf 

Mautner, Michael Noah. (2000).  A Constitution of Direct Democracy : Pure Democracy and the Governance of the Future ~ Locally and Globally.  Legacy Books.

McRae, Hamish.  (1994).  The World in 2020: Power, Culture, and Prosperity.  Boston: Harvard Business School Press.

Mitchell, William J. (2000). E-topia. London: The MIT Press.

Naisbitt, John. (1997). Megatrends Asia. New York: Touchstone.

North Central Regional Educational Laboratory. How to Identify and Explore Emerging Issues, Vignettes: The Revolution Begins with You. Retrieved April 18, 2004 from <http://www.ncrel.org/policy/emerg/over.htm> 
Patrick. (2003).  Recent Email from a Swiss Citizen.  Retrieved on January 17, 2004 from http://www.vote.org/swiss.htm

Plato. (1998). Republic. New York: Oxford University Press.

Rousseau, Jean-Jacques. (1999). The Social Contract. New York: Oxford University Press.

Salant, P. & Dillman, D.  (1994).  How to Conduct Your Own Survey.  New York:  John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Shamos, M.I.  (1993). Electronic Voting -- Evaluating the Threat.  Retrieved October 15, 2003 from  http://www.cpsr.org/conferences/cfp93/shamos.html
Smith, Russell. Electronic Voting: Benefits and Risks. (2002).  Retrieved October 24, 2003 from  http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/tandi/ti224.pdf Stirner, M. (1967). The False Principle of our Education, or, Humanism and Reform. Colorado Springs: Ralph Melees Publisher.
Toffler, Alvin. (1980). The Third Wave.  New York: Bantam Books.
Vago, Steven. (1999). Strategies of Change. Chapter 9: Social Change. Pearson Educational, Inc.
Wilhelm, Anthony G. (2000).  Democracy in the Digital Age: Challenges to Political Life in Cyberspace.  New York and London: Routledge.

Webliography: 
Corporate Facilitation from the BREFI group. Retrieved May 12, 2004 from <http://www.brefigroup.co.uk/facilitation/scenario_planning_articles.html>
Don't Stop Thinking about Tomorrow. from CIO. com. Retrieved May 12, 2004 from <http://www.cio.com/archive/010100/stop.html>
Futures Resource Pack. Retrieved May 19, 2004 from www.fastfuture.com/Docs/FFV_Futures_Resource_Pack.doc A list of links and resources related to futuring and studies concerning the future.
How to Control People. (2004). Retrieved on April 5, 2004 from <http://www.apfn.net/messageboard/01-18-01/mbs.cgi.720.html>
Jigsaw Project. (2002). Creating our Future. Retrieved May 19, 2004 from <http://www.communitybuilders.nsw.gov.au/download/jigsaw_final_report.pdf> A project with several future scenarios, mostly for the year 2020, and how to arrive at them.
Kerry M. Joels, Kerry. (2004). Future Studies: An Interdisciplinary Vehicle for Space Science Education. Retrieved May 26, 2004 from <http://www.jsc.nasa.gov/er/seh/future.html>
List, Dennis. (2001). Multiple Pasts, Converging Presents, and Alternative Futures. Retrieved May 19, 2004 from <http://business2.unisa.edu.au/innovres/papers/brasov.htm> Various methods of futuring techniques.
Outward Insights. Retrieved May 12, 2004 from <http://www.outwardinsights.com/> "We offer a host of solutions to help you anticipate-rather than react to-external threats and opportunities."

Rausch, Erwin. (1994). Simulation and Games in Futuring and Other Uses. Retrieved May 19, 2004 from <http://www.futurovenezuela.org/_curso/14-games.pdf> Simulated futuring specifically in relation to computers, games, virtual reality, game theory and business and societal future scenarios.
SekretariatProf.grat. University of St. Gallen. Retrieved May 12, 2004 from <http://www.sgzz.ch/home/links/scenplan.htm> 
Smyre, Rick. (2002). Democracy in a Learning Mode. from the South Carolina Export Consortium. Retrieved on April 5, 2004 from <http://tartan.communitiesofthefuture.org/articles/cotf-plwb-11b.html>

Workshop for the Delphi Technique. (2004). Retrieved on April 5, 2004 from <http://www.propertyrightsresearch.org/articles4/workshop_for_the_delphi_techniqu.htm>
http://www.ericfacility.net/ericdigests/ed410176.html.  This site involves global trends in civic education for democracy and explores the instruction of core concepts and comparative analyses of democratic systems worldwide and the development of participatory skills for the implementation of democratic processes.
http://www.civiced.org/articles_indonesia.html.  This site discusses global trends in civic education procedures and effectiveness of civic education as practiced in Indonesia.
http://www.bf.rmit.edu.au/kgeiselhart/e-_democracy_resources_.htm  This site by Steven Clift lists links and references to e-democracy and e-government.
http://faculty.washington.edu/stkerr/ethb94.htm This site is from the Handbook of Research on Educational Technology. This chapter, Toward a Sociology of Educational Technology is by Stephen T. Kerr of the University of Washington and describes the development and use of technology in education and its sociological implications.
http://ultibase.rmit.edu.au/Articles/may01/geiselhart1.htm In the article, Teaching Technology to Share, Karin Geiselhart discusses technology, education, and democracy in the information age.

<http://www.cpre.org/Publications/rb05.pdf>  An article referring to decentralization in society and in education mostly from the Center for Policy Research in Education (CPRE).

<http://www.developmentgateway.org/node/130685/?>  This site involves E-government and E-democracy issues worldwide.

<http://www.enc.org/focus/partners/document.shtm?input=FOC-001876-index>  Online lesson plans, student activities, and teacher learning tools from the Eisenhower National Clearinghouse for Mathematics and Science Education (ENC).

<http://www.lancs.ac.uk/staff/trowler/links.htm>  A list of links, websites, and resources related to educational research provided by Lancaster University of the U.K.

<http://web.wested.org/online_pubs/po-00-03.pdf>  An article concerning educational funding from WestEd (wested.org).

Websites pertaining to democracy:
http://www.developmentgateway.org/node/130619/?page_id=3647   (worldwide egovernment)                                                         
http://thomas.loc.gov/    ( the proceedings of the U.S. Congress and egovernment development)
http://egov.mit.gov.in/   (egovernment in India)
http://www.abc.net.au/ola/citizen/interdemoc/republic.htm
http://www.veritasdigital.com/ad_online/participatory.html
http://www.cpsu.org.uk/downloads/Modernising%20Background.pdf
http://www.publicus.net/ebook/
http://www.mail-archive.com/do-wire@tc.umn.edu/msg00045.html
http://policy.womenspace.ca/activities/brainstorm/policy/
http://www.analysphere.com/21Oct00/democracy.htm
http://www.statskontoret.se/gol-democracy/links/Popular/
http://www.itac.ca/client/ITAC/ITAC_UW_MainEngine.nsf/object/Imperative/$file/Agnew.pdf
http://www.one2one.co.nz/edemocracy.html
http://www.politics.tcd.ie/courses/undergrad/bcc/portal/egovernance.html
http://www.internetnz.net.nz/members/lists/isocnz-council-tidbits/2000-August/000012.html
http://www.flaxroots.net.nz/2000/papers/2000-PaulHughes.html
http://www.context.co.nz:8080/newsItems/viewDepartment$Participatory+Democracy
http://langue.hyper.chubu.ac.jp/jalt/pub/tlt/00/dec/scott.html
http://www.diverdiver.com/2003_03_07_diverdiver_archive.html
http://www.democracy-online.org/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A8287-2003Feb26
http://lists.essential.org/1995/info-policy-notes/msg00137.html
http://mondediplo.com/1998/12/03bensaid    (third way government)
http://www.jhu.edu/news_info/news/topic/politics.html    (online voting)
http://lone-eagles.com/democracy.htm  (list of related links and sources)
http://www.democracy-online.org/ (another list of related links and sources)
http://egov.mit.gov.in/  (egovernment development in India)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/ancient/greeks/greekdemocracy_01.shtml
http://www.bris.ac.uk/Depts/Philosophy/UG/ugunits0102/rousseau.html
http://www.wabash.edu/Rousseau/WorksonWeb.html
http://www.sosig.ac.uk/roads/subject-listing/World-cat/philpol.html
http://www.bu.edu/wcp/Papers/Poli/PoliFeld.htm
http://www.bu.edu/wcp/MainPoli.htm
http://www.bu.edu/wcp/Papers/Poli/PoliBuch.htm
http://oregonstate.edu/instruct/phl302/texts/locke/locke2/2nd-contents.html
http://www.sosig.ac.uk/roads/subject-listing/World-cat/demgovt.html
http://www.ancientworlds.net/aw/Post/32871
http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/class/300/300pix/300.ideas.html
http://teachers.ausd.net/antilla/philolinks.html
http://plato.stanford.edu
http://www.rep.routledge.com/index.html
http://www.bris.ac.uk/Depts/Philosophy/Dept/journals.html
http://www.bris.ac.uk/DeptsPhilosophy/Dept/Links.htm
http://www.bris.ac.uk/Depts/Philosophy/VL/index.html
http://web.mit.edu/polisci/www/research/goodness.html
http://etext.virginia.edu/jefferson/quotations/jeff0600.htm
http://www.anova.org/
http://www.developmentgateway.org/node/130619/?page_id=3647 
http://www.pdemokracie.ecn.cz/cs/doc/Statut-ang.doc
http://edemocracy.meetup.com/members/878
http://dmoz.org/Society/Politics/Democracy/Direct_Democracy/
http://www.dominion-web.com/directory/Top/Society/Politics/Democracy/Direct_Democracy
http://www.free-project.org/connect/links/
http://www.election.com/
http://www.votehere.net/
http://www.lib.ied.edu.hk/edarticle/civic.htm
http://edu.uwe.ac.uk/cred/bibliographic/papers.asp
http://www.egov.vic.gov.au/Research/ElectronicDemocracy/voting.htm
http://www.louiseferguson.com/resources/evoting.htm
http://web.mit.edu/voting/
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/nr/2001/voting2.html

Appendix I
A Curriculum for the Implementation of Direct Democracy:
Following is a possible curriculum that could be revised, amended, and expanded to accommodate changing instructional requirements and changing new technology as well as changing and evolving informational content:
Pre-kindergarten:   Flash cards with pictures depicting basic concepts and people and places associated with democracy.  Voting by raising hands, clapping, shouting, or placing balls in a basket to show what they like as shown from pictures of the objects (such as apples, cake, hamburgers, lemons, music, etc.) 
Kindergarten:     Vote by placing softball size balls in a container.  Flash cards with pictures and words of basic concepts of democracy.
First grade:     Vote by placing ping pong balls in a container. Vote by writing  letters.  Flash cards with words of leaders of history, places and events associated with democracy.  Elect students for class duties for each student such as erasing the board, closing the windows, turning off lights, sweeping, etc.  These duties can be rotated monthly.
Second grade:  Vote by writing letters, numbers, and then names.
Third grade:  Vote by writing names of the students and of objects voted on.  For instance, for the question What do you like? the students write what they like such as "ice cream", etc.  Eventually, sentences are used.
Fourth grade:  Vote for class officers and class duties. Students write sentences on what they want to vote for and why.  Read political news for children in Weekly Reader, Yahoo Kids' page, etc.  Draw pictures and write paragraphs about democracy in the U.S.
Fifth grade:  Vote for class officers and class duties.  Voting by printed forms or writing names of people or objects voted on.  Introduction of the early history of democracy, around 500B.C. in Athens, Greece. Draw pictures about fora in ancient Greece.  Read Political news in Weekly Reader, Yahoo Kids' news, some newspapers and read about the history and practices of democracy in the students' social studies text books.
Sixth grade:   Vote for class officers with ballots.  Introduction to computers, software, using the Internet for searching and researching information, introduction to Internet for voting.  Write essays and draw pictures about democracy, history related to democracy, and political topics in the U.S. and the world.
Seventh grade:  Vote for class officers and duties with computer and Internet technology.  Study issues to be voted on. Vote for issues of the past.  Vote for some current issues. Write essays on democracy, history, political topics, current invents, and new ideas of how society should be constructed.  Read the Declaration of Independence and a summarized version of the United States Constitution.  Memorize some quotations associated with democracy.
Eighth grade: Polical Science and History readings and discussions about direct democracy.  Magazine articles, newspaper articles, and Internet searches about direct democracy.  Find an international pen pal to discuss direct democracy with via the Internet.
Ninth grade:  High school clubs established: Democracy Club; Political Science Club; Political Philosophy; clubs for Democrats, Republicans, Green Party, Independents, etc. Develop Internet surveys to find public opinion on various topics.  Find books and articles about direct democracy and write reports on them.
Tenth grade:   Civics discussion of the responsibilities of the voting citizens.  U. S. History and Democracy. U.S. Constitution, Declaration of Independence. Terminology relevant to democracy explored, direct democracy explained, duties and responsibilities of the voters. Computer voting Tutorial I.
Eleventh grade:   Learn to vote via the computer and Internet. World History of Democracy. Discussion and essays about forms of government throughout history. Continue corresponding with your international pen pal and ask your pen pal to find an additional join your correspondence group to have three way discussions.   Find one additional penpal to correspond with via the Internet and discuss all current event topics including direct democracy.   Summarized readings of Plato's Republic and the Politics by Aristotle.  Read and write essays on Democracy and Education by John Dewey and the Social Contract by Jean Jacques Rousseau.   Computer voting Tutorial II.
Twelfth grade:  Vote via the Internet. Vote on current and historical national and international issues.  Direct democracy procedures examined, explained, discussed.  Political Philosophy and duties of and preparation for the voting public. Discussions comparing representative and direct democracy, totalitarianism, Marxism, capitalism, and socialism.  Read and write essays on:  Direct Democracy: The Politics of Initiative, Referendum, and Recall by Thomas Cronin;  Direct Democracy in Switzerland by Gregory Fossedal;  Elections in Cyberspace by Anthony Corrado and Charles Firestone and more essays on Democracy and Education by John Dewey.  Computer Voting Tutorial III.
----
Online tutorials:
The history of democracy
The philosophy of democracy
Glossary of terminology related to democracy and government
Naigating the computer and Internet for online voting
Computer Voting Tutorial I, II, III
Voting on Referendums, Initiatives, Elections for representatives, and Recalls
Preparation for certificate for a voting member of the Public Assembly
Writing and submitting legislation
Links, resources, publications, and organizations concerning direct democracy
Technical skills for the use of the computer and the Internet related to direct democracy

Below are listed university, post-secondary, adult, online courses, some of which are required, in addition to taking the certificate exams, to become a voting member of the (newly created) public legislature or Public Assembly.  One certificate is for the local level, one for the state level, and one for the national level (laws and and an amendment would need to be enacted to create such a voting body).  The certificate would require at least a high school education or a recognized equivalent, for the person to be a registered voter,  All registered voters are able to vote in initiatives, referendums, elections, and recalls but the Public Legislature would require a licensed certificate, similar to obtaining a driver's license or a specialist's license, renewable periodically with minor exams, to become a non-elected member of the Third House of Congress, which will count for 1/3 of the votes of the United States Congress.

University, college, online, and adult courses (with majors in political science with an emphasis on direct democracy and related subjects, some required for a voting certificate):

The growth and development of direct democracy
Writing and submitting legislatives bills for a direct democracy
Topics covered in the voting certificate exams
Designing instructional material for direct democracy
The procedures for voting in a direct democracy
Political philosophy and direct democracy
The use of direct democracy in Switzerland
Procedures and precedents for amending the U.S.Constitution
The world history and use of direct democracy
The use of direct democracy in governments and organizations worldwide
Referendum, Intiative, Election, and Recall
Methods of informing the public on legislative and di d issues
Security issues of online voting
The governmental structure for direct democracy
Theories and use of democracy

University, advanced and adult learner reading list for courses in direct democracy:

Adult Education for Social Change: From Center Stage to the Wings and Back Again (1996) by Thomas Heaney.
The Americans: The Democratic Experience (1974) by Boorstin, Daniel J. Boorstin.
America's Crisis: The Direct Democracy and Direct Education Solution (2000) by D. B. Jeffs and V. Hugo.
Aristotle and Xenophon on Democracy and Oligarchy (1975) by J. M. Moore.
Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project (2001) by the California Institute of Technology and The Massachusetts Institute of Technology Corporation.
Citizens As Legislators: Direct Democracy in the United States (1998) by Bowler, S., Donovan, T. & Tolbert, C.
Civic Participation and Community Action Sourcebook: A Resource for Adult Educators by A. Nash.
Collected Writings of Thomas Jefferson.
A Constitution of Direct Democracy : Pure Democracy and the Governance of the Future ~ Locally and Globally (2000) by Michael Noah Mautner.
The Cultural Creatives: How 50 Million People are Changing the World (2000) by S.R. Anderson & P. Ray.
The Communicative Ethics Controversy (1990) by S. Benhabib and F. Dallmayr.
Democracy: Real and Ideal, Discourse Ethics and Radical Politics (1999) by Ricardo Blaug.
Demanding Choices: Opinion, Voting, and Direct Democracy (2001) by Bowler, S, & Donovan, T.
Democracy and Education: An Introduction to the Philosophy of Education (1997) by John Dewey.
Democracy and Education and Prospects for Democracy (1994) by N. Chomsky.
Democracy, Citizenship and the Global City (2000) by E. F. Isin.
Democracy in America (2000) by Alexis de Tocqueville. 
Democracy in the Digital Age : Challenges to Political Life in Cyberspace (2000) by Anthony G. Wilhelm.
Developing e-Citizens and e-Consumers, an Irish e-Commerce Case Study (2001) by John MacNamara.
Direct Democracy: The Politics of Initiative, Referendum & Recall (1999) by Thomas E. Cronin. 
Direct Democracy in Switzerland (2002) by Gregory A. Fossedal.
Direct Democracy or Representative Government?: Dispelling the Populist Myth (2000) by John Haskell.
The Economist: A better way to vote: Why letting the people themselves take the decisions is the logical next step for the West (1993) by Brian Needham.
Electronic Democracy: Using the Internet to Transform American Politics (2002) by Browning, G. & Powell, A.C.
Electronic Media and Technoculture (2000) by John Thornton Caldwell.
E-Democracy, E-Governance, and Public Net-Work (2003) by Steven Clift.
Elections in Cyberspace:  Toward a New Era in American Politics (1997) A. Corrado & C.M. Firestone.
E-democracy in Practice: Swedish Experiences of a New Political Tool (2001) by T. Rosen.
Electronic Voting: Benefits and Risks (2002) by Russell Smith.
Electronic Voting -- Evaluating the Threat (1993) by M. I. Shamos.
Essay Concerning Human Understanding and Two Treatises of Government by John Locke.
E-topia (2000) by William J. Mitchell.
The Examined Life (2000) by Stanley Rosen.
The Future of Teledemocracy (2000) by T. Becker & C.D. Slaton.
The Handbook of Qualitative Research (2000) by J. Frow & M. Morris, M. (2000).  
Leviathan (1998) by Thomas Hobbes.
Megatrends 2000 (1996) by J. Naisbitt and Aburdene P.
The New Challenge of Direct Democracy (1997) by Ian Budge.
New Schools for a New Century (1997) by Diane Ravitch and Joseph P. Viteritti.
Political Parties and Constitutional Government: Remaking American Democracy (1999) by S. M. Milkis. 
The Prince by Niccolo Machiavelli.
Republic (1998) by Plato.
Rethinking Democracy and Education: Towards an Education of Deliberative Citizens (2000) by T. Englund.
The Social Contract by Jean-Jacques Rousseau.
The Spirit of Laws by Montesquieu.
Stealing the Initiative: How State Government Responds to Direct Democracy (2000) by E. R. Gerber, A. Lupia, M. D. McCubbins & D. R. Kiewiet.
Technoscience and Cyberculture (1996) by S. Aronowitz, B. Martinsons, M. Menser, and J. Rich.
The Third Wave (1984) by Alvin Toffler.
United States Constitution, the Declaration of Independence, the Federalist Papers.
Virtual Environmental Citizenship: Web-Based Public Participation in Rulemaking in the U.S. (2003) by Schlosberg, D. 
The World in 2020: Power, Culture, and Prosperity (1994) by Hamish McRae.

Appendix II:
A Proposal for Creating the Third House of Congress: the Public Assembly
for the Creation of a National Democracy in the United States of America

Richard Bloodworth

Phase 1 (3 to 10 years):
Debate and Introduction to the Concept
Discussions and committees formed
Brain storming and think tank groups developed
Petitions and letters, email, talk shows, TV, radio campaigns
Public education of the concept
Readings and discussions in schools and universities about democracy
Concepts related to direct democracy discussed and read about in schools
Writers and Artists commissioned
Software conceptualizing
Books and magazine articles are printed on the subject
Funding and economic issues are discussed
Funds raised
A suggestion hotline is established
An official website is created

Phase 2 (2 years):
Organizing and structuring of the voting methods and procedures
Curriculum developed for public schools and universities
Development of the Government Structure
Legal Documents developed
Constitutional amendment first draft written
Various committees appointed
Local referendums held
. 
Phase 3 (3 years):
All of the above activities continue (website, etc.)
Trial period when the procedures are developed, refined and the first results used as an opinion
polling collection device.
Educating the public on the procedures involved
Curriculum about direct democracy initiated for public schools and universities
First trials are done locally, first city, then county, then state, then national levels
During this period suggestions and changes are made
Software is developed
Security issues addressed
Computer and software bugs are worked out
Initial voting centers are established, these can be adjacent to post offices
Participants (initial voters) are assigned temporary voter registration numbers and passwords,
etc. chosen. The voter registration numbers are assigned through the voting centers.

Phase 4 (3 years):
Voting Centers are established nationwide
Voter registration numbers are established partly containing a social security number.
Voting Centers have the bills and plans to be voted on in booklet form and posted on the walls
and these bills and plans are also available online for perusal and study.
The voter registration numbers, including a social security number, are assigned through the
voting centers in a way similar to registering to vote and passwords are chosen. (Voters
are given up to 3 days to edit or change their submissions when voting)
The opinion poll collection system continues using the online voting system
Strict felony laws against Internet abuse or direct voting fraud with severe penalties and punishments
are passed by the legislature.

Phase 5 (Continuing):
Voters are able to connect to the voting system via the Internet with their own computers, or
continue to vote through the Voting Centers, and become voting members of the 3rd
House of Congress, the Public Assembly according to U.S. federal law and also of
state, county, and city governments as laws of each state allow.

In the future, computers will be as standard as telephones and everyone with a telephone will
have a computer with which they can cast there votes and then the United States government will
become a truly participatory government of democracy.

Appendix III

Open-Ended Questions for Social Studies and Political Science Teachers:

The below are some sample questions are in the form of open-ended questions that can be
answered with essay type answers:

How has direct democracy been practiced in other countries and institutions and how effective has it
been?
How can the educational system participate in the implementation of a direct democracy utilizing
Internet and computer technology?
How can direct democracy be introduced and taught in Social Studies and Political Science courses?
How can a constitutional amendment be proposed?
How can the reliability of Internet voting be assessed?
How can the privacy and security of voters be assured?
How can the public be informed of issues to be voted on?
How can the voters register their votes via the Internet or computer?
How can the public be made aware of the safety and limitations of direct democracy?
How can the public be made aware of the roles and duties of citizens in a democracy?
How can the public be made aware of the philosophy and history of democracy?

An example of how one of the sample questions could be answered:

-- How can a Constitutional amendment be proposed?

Constitutional amendments are permanent additions to the Constitution, though they can be
counter amended as was the case with the Prohibition amendment, that require a 2/3 vote from both
houses of the Congress and therefore very difficult to obtain. There have been twenty seven
Constitutional Amendments with the most recent being in 1992 which involved no Congressional self
salary increases while the legislators are in their terms. The twelfth Amendment concerning changing the
method of electing the president of the United States using the Electoral College was added in 1803
after the first ten Amendments, the Bill of Rights, were added in 1791.

Appendix IV

An Example of a Likert Scale Item Survey that could be Sent to Social Studies and Political Science Teachers:

These closed-ended items can be responded to with linear scale responses (strongly disagree
to strongly agree, or don’t know):

Direct democracy been practiced in other countries and institutions and has been effective
1 strongly disagree 2 3 4 strongly agree 5 Don’t know 0
The educational system should participate in the implementation of a direct democracy utilizing Internet
and computer technology.
1 strongly disagree 2 3 4 strongly agree 5 Don’t know 0
Direct democracy should be introduced and taught in Social Studies and Political Science courses.
1 strongly disagree 2 3 4 strongly agree 5 Don’t know 0
A Constitutional amendment should be proposed creating a direct democracy system in the United
States.
1 strongly disagree 2 3 4 strongly agree 5 Don’t know 0
The Internet is a reliable method of voting.
1 strongly disagree 2 3 4 strongly agree 5 Don’t know 0
The voters have complete privacy and security
1 strongly disagree 2 3 4 strongly agree 5 Don’t know 0
.The public can be informed of issues to be voted on.
1 strongly disagree 2 3 4 strongly agree 5 Don’t know 0
The voters could easily register their votes via the Internet or computer.
1 strongly disagree 2 3 4 strongly agree 5 Don’t know 0
The public should be made aware of the safety using the Internet for direct democracy.
1 strongly disagree 2 3 4 strongly agree 5 Don’t know 0
The public should be made aware of the limitations of direct democracy.
1 strongly disagree 2 3 4 strongly agree 5 Don’t know 0
The public should be made aware of the roles and duties of citizens in a democracy.
1 strongly disagree 2 3 4 strongly agree 5 Don’t know 0
The public should be made aware of the philosophy and history of democracy.
1 strongly disagree 2 3 4 strongly agree 5 Don’t know 0

Some other possible questions that could be used as Likert scale items are:
Do you think the United States is a democracy now?
Do you think Direct Democracy or people voting directly on legislative issues is a good idea?
Do you think adequate technology exists today for direct democracy?
Do you think adequate education, information, and training can be given to citizens for them to vote as
legislators?
Do you think interest for direct democracy would be maintained by the public?
Do you think that eventually a new branch of Congress could be formed by the voting citizens?
Do you think the people’s voting branch of Congress could be used first as an opinion collection
device?
Do you think citizens and students should study for and take examinations in order to receive
certification in order to qualify as a voting member of a legislature in a direct democracy?
Should the public schools provide education and training for citizens to function as voting members of a
direct democracy system of government?

--

Hello Howard,

Attached is the ED 815 Course Project.

Thank you for guiding us through the interesting information of this course.

Richard

P.S.  Please let me know when you receive this. 

--

u10d1 comment to Greg

I think everyone likes the futuring tree concept for the same reason that they like the visual, graphical, and understandable information contained within maps to guide them toward a destination.

Richard
--
Howard's comments on my final course paper:

Hello, Richard:
I hope this finds you well. I was able to put in more time last night and today than anticipated and therefore was able to review your final paper for 815, about the Implementation of Direct Democracy.
It always made me "crazy" when my graduate school instructors commented on the format of my paper rather than the content. Therefore I do want to say that I will first be commenting on format and then make sure to address the content.
While, perhaps, at the lower end of the thinking continuum, deviations in format from APA style is something that will hurt all learners. My interest is that each learner does well in this class but also has the tools to be successful in completing the program and, in particular, the dissertation. Your paper was well written and clearly presented. In future papers, please consider the following:
•	When you type, papers in the future please make sure to use a specified type size
-- usually Times Roman 12 point
•	Also, APA does not allow for the use of bold-face terms.
I thought you did a wonderful job of integrating each of the sections of the assignments that we worked on during the quarter. Your introduction set the context of the problem. I very much liked your point about those who may oppose these ideas on the grounds of fearing Internet fraud probably do most of their banking on line. Of course the last election also showed how error (if nor fraud) prone the current system is.
Jefferson and many of the other founding fathers who wrote the Constitution did not trust the “common man.” That is one reason they tried to make land ownership a requirement for voting. They may have felt that only those with a vested interest would take the time to consider the issues wisely. This, of course, ignores the very real possibility that they were trying to restrict voting to people who thought the way they did.
On the other hand, I believe it was also Jefferson who said (words to the effect) that people get the government they deserve. So, while I question whether or not Americans have the attention span to pay attention to anything longer than a 10-second sound bite, it would be hard to argue on philosophical grounds, given the existing technology, that we should not be moving towards direct democracy.
The public schools have many times become a battle ground over social issues that are present in our society (Brown vs. Georgia; the recent suit about the inclusion of “under God in the Pledge of Allegiance) as well as content/curricular issues that have to do with politics than education (evolution, federally mandated testing). The move towards direct participatory democracy would truly make schools a “interesting place” to be - as long as one was equipped with flack jackets. This may help to highlight what people such as Postman have been contending for years - that we do not have an educational system in this country we have a political system attempting to deliver an education.
The information you included in the Appendix is much appreciated. There are many good resources listed there. I also appreciated all of your efforts in the CourseRoom and the support you provided to your classmates. When the final grades are submitted at the end of this quarter you will find an “A” to reflect your efforts on your paper and in this course.
I appreciated all of your efforts in the CourseRoom and the support you provided to your classmates. When the final grades are submitted at the end of this quarter you will find an “A” to reflect your efforts on your paper and in this course. 
I try to provide learners with feedback about work and grades as a matter of learning and courtesy. However, Capella has asked us NOT to tell learners their final grades before the quarter officially comes to an end. This is not a matter of "secrecy" as much as a matter of timing. Many times, as in this case, we know the grade before they are posted and learners call in to ask for transcripts before grades have been posted. Therefore, I am asking you not to call or contact Capella about the grade in this class until the grades are posted (you will get an e-mail) on June 23rd. If, for some reason, you need an official transcript before that date, please contact me so I can make special arrangements with Capella.
I have enjoyed working with you and hope that our paths cross again.
Sincerely,
--Howard Jacobs
Howard R. Jacobs, Ph.D. 
"We live in our imaginations, settings more symbolic than concrete."
--
my response:

Howard,

Thank you for your insightful response.  Concerning the form of the paper, I'll use 12 point next time but I thought I would try to make the paper not too bulky. And I thought that using Arial font (I have previously usually used Times Roman, 12 point) could handle a smaller size since it is sans serif.  I didn't notice in the APA manual not to use bold type but I won't again in a school paper even though bold type is used throughout the APA manual -- how dare they set such a bad example by doing what we are told not to do ;-) !  (I personally like bold type when an important term is embedded within a paragraph especially in a text book -- I think of it as sort of a courtesy to the reader to help make the reading more understandable and accessible).  I know that the APA style uses italic type style for book titles rather than underlining them which I had previously been taught to do.

I think Thomas Jefferson was the most important ingredient in the formulation of the American system of government -- though his thoughts were based on French, English, and Greek philosophers -- and he was the main mind behind the new American government.   But his life was a contradiction to his statements about freedom and equality -- especially since he owned slaves!  That is another example of how different the times were then compared to now, so issues and literature need to be examined and considered based on the context in which they were created.   The U.S. Constitution and the American papers were written at a time when people could own other people as property in a way which was similar to people owning cars or houses today.  I think Jefferson might have had a guilt trip about that issue and maybe that is one reason he fathered a child by a slave (some say) but whether or not that is true I think he had a hard time with himself reconciling that issue and justifying slavery.

The Plege of Allegiance "under God" issue was just decided on by the Supreme Court by allowing it to remain in the pledge.  I think of the phrase "under God" as part of the poetry of the pledge so removing it would be like tampering with a work of art.  No one thinks we should repaint Mona Lisa's smile, do they :-) ?  Also, none of the atheists have demanded "in God we Trust" be taken off all of the U.S. money.  That phrase is on practically every coin and every bill and so it is also part of the artwork and thus part of the culture.

Again, thank you for guiding us through the course.

Sincerely,

Richard

P.S. Concerning the issue of God: in my opinion, all people are agnostic in varying degrees since no one can say with certainty whether a God exists or not (it also depends on the definition of the term "God" which varies from person to person -- I wrote a paper on that in a philosophy of religion class which I can send to you if you would like, or have time, to read it).

***************
from:  Final Report
CYBERVOTE:WP6:D21:2003 v1.0
3 July 2003

From: "Richard Bloodworth" <rbloodworth99@yahoo.com>
To: <rbloodworth99@yahoo.com>
Subject: Emailing: MSI-WP6-D21-v1.0 (2)
Date: Friday, October 24, 2003 10:02 PM  (in my Outlook Express inbox )

Your files are attached and ready to send with this message.

Page 44 / 47 No communication, reproduction or use without prior approval from the CYBERVOTE consortium Copyright . 2003
1. Switzerland can be described as a semi-direct democracy in which citizens
can exert censorship on newly voted laws as well as proposing new legal
provisions. As a result, citizens are called at least four or five times a year
to the ballot. Postal voting is now used by some 95% of voters in Geneva.
Its introduction has increased participation to the ballot by 20%. While
Geneva lagged at the bottom of the turnout list ten years ago, it is now one
of the cantons with the highest participation in ballots. Internet voting aims
to consolidate this trend towards remote voting and stronger turnout.
2. Direct democracy also offers a breeding ground for Internet voting, because
the elected members of parliaments – municipal, cantonal or federal – are
used to seeing their decisions challenged in the poll. Introducing such a
polling method does not cause any fear of desecration of the institutions, of
the act of voting or of the legal system.
The Geneva State Council and its partners – the Geneva University was asked to
accompany the project with legal and socio-political studies – defined nine rules that the
system has to comply with:
1. The votes may not be intercepted, modified or diverted;
2. Nobody may have access to the votes before the official opening of the eballot
box;
3. Only registered voters may be granted access to the e-voting application;
4. Each voter may only be able to vote once, using whatever voting method he
or she has chosen;
5. The secrecy of the vote has to be guaranteed. There may never be a link
between a vote and a voter;
6. The e-voting site has to resist any attack;
7. Voters will have to be protected against any attempt of identity theft;
8. The number of cast ballots has to be equal to the number of received ballots;
9. The system may not accept any vote outside the voting period; it has to be
possible for legally designated authorities to check the proper functioning of
the system.
To this end, severe technical security measures are introduced:
1. When voting via the Internet, the ballot is encrypted by randomly mixing
alphanumerical characters to the content of the ballot.
2. When the ballot is returned to the voter to confirm his choice and add his ID
features, there is another protective layer, namely a picture that is woven
into the ballot in order to make it more difficult for hackers to read it and to
give the voter the possibility to verify that he is connected with the official
e-voting website and not a counterfeit website.
3. The official site is certified. Voters can see the authentication certificates.
4. Voters’ identity and ballots are kept in two distinct files.
Final Report
CYBERVOTE:WP6:D21:2003 v1.0
3 July 2003
5. Before opening it, the contents of the electronic ballot box are shaken by
applying an algorithm, in order to change the order in which the ballots will
come out. This prevents any matching entries in the voters register and the
electronic ballot box, matching which could allow a cross-reading.

Some of the Notes used for ED815:

Paper for direct democracy curriculum from ED7701:
Methods of and Curricula for Institutionally
Implementing and Sustaining the Use of a
Direct Democracy in the United States of America
ED7701
Educational Philosophy and Change
Winter 2004
Richard Bloodworth
P.O.Box 78123
Atlanta, GA 30357
Dr. Callie Welstead
"Every nation has a right to govern itself internally under what forms it pleases,
and to change these forms at its own will."
-Thomas Jefferson to Thomas Pinckney, 1792.
2
Contents
Abstract 4
Introduction and Rationale 5
Literature Review 7
Objectives 8
A Curriculum for the Use of Direct Democracy 11
Conclusion 17
Bibliography 18
Appendix I 21
3
Appendix II 23
Appendix III 24
Abstract
This proposal is an action plan for direct democracy to be introduced and taught in Social
Studies and Political Science courses in educational, public, and online institutions. The initial introduction
to the concept would begin in kindergarten and the early grades of elementary school and then
incrementally more information would gradually be added to the knowledge base progressing through to
high school, and in post-secondary and adult learning environments, to prepare the learners to be
educated voters in a continuing and growing direct democracy.
4
Rationale
One problem with the educational system, and society in general, involves political philosophy.
If most societies are called democratic then many people hold the opinion that the people should be
allowed to govern by voting directly and democratically (as is done in Switzerland) on issues rather than
voting only for representatives. When educating post-secondary or adult students (or even students
beginning with the early years of kindergarten and then through high school, in preparation for their
becoming adults), how can the concepts of democracy be conveyed and transferred to the learners and
how can they become directly involved in the implementation of democratically determined plans? The
proposed project involves exploring what methods have been used previously to establish direct
democracies (which are defined as the public voting directly on issues rather than through elected
representatives who can, after being elected, vote any way they choose.) and to establish a curriculum
to teach the principles and techniques of direct democracy in schools, primarily through social studies
and political science classes. The process can involve obtaining ideas from social studies and political
science teacher in developing a curriculum. One approach could be to send an emailed questionnaire to
Social Studies and Political Science teachers in public and private schools who teach from kindergarten
to the twelfth grade levels and to those who teach in the post-secondary and adult education learning
environments. The questionnaire could contain closed and open ended questions in addition to a blank
suggestion space at the end of the questionnaire where the instructors can add any thoughts that they
may have on the subject.
The social studies and political science classes could introduce, early in the development of the
curriculum - such as during the elementary school years, the first concepts of democracy as government
based on the will of and for the good of the people or society. The curriculum would eventually include
the history of democracy beginning with ancient Athens, Greece (and perhaps even before that) and its
present forms of use today in various countries and institutions and studies of its various methods of
execution. Also included in the course curriculum would be computer skills courses since thorough
5
knowledge of computer and Internet usage would be needed to implement and sustain the continuing
use of a direct democracy.
Once the system is established and the procedures for its execution are in place and all of the
necessary legislation is passed to secure its governmental structure, procedural content, and continuing
existence, the voters, or potential voters (who would require secured registration, training, and perhaps
certification to qualify to vote), would learn how to research and read about issues to be voted on at the
local, state, and national levels. Computer tutorials could also be developed to teach the learners how
this is done and even provide some practice voting sessions and hypothetical situations to which they
can respond.
6
Review of Literature Concerning Direct Democracy
Today, there is discussion about using more direct democracy procedures and direct elections
as well as electronic town meetings and teledemocracy. The public has become disillusioned with the
issues of taxes, regulation, inefficiency, the arms race, ecological problems, etc. since public policy is
made in distant capitals by unknown agents. The first known direct democracy occurred in Athens,
Greece around 500 B.C. where all of the citizens voted directly on legislative issues. Direct democracy
in the United States dates back to Massachusetts in 1640 with its town meetings utilizing majority rule
and embodying three main principles: consent of the governed, rule by law, and representation of the
people. During that period, the people were primary and governments were secondary and subservient
to the people.
The use of a direct democracy requires a focused policy and the cyber world of political
control contains the features and advantages of access to resources, inclusion, potential for deliberation,
and comprehensible design. In the future, direct democracy will be formed by shaping virtual civic
spaces which will include home-based cyberdemocracy as well as public-access workstations all of
which will result in community building (Wilhelm, 2000). Direct democracy involves citizens discussing
and deciding how government is to govern instead of having these decisions made by legislators,
bureaucrats, or parliamentarians. Many people now feel that representative democracy is not the
correct and most feasible form of democracy and this line of thinking threatens the established existence
of these current forms of governments, as any new system does when it is initially introduced. With the
new communication inventions, tools, and developments that direct democracy is now technically
possible and desirable in the body politic. Direct democracy is currently in use, particularly in
Switzerland. When discussing direct democracy issues such as structural constraints, technological
limitations, the dispensing of information to the voters, the concerns of minorities within a democratic
system, and the political units (such as minorities and organizations) within a democratic system should
be addressed (Budge, 2000).
7
In the future people will need to decide on such issues involving governmental systems, space
exploration, robotics, cloning, economics, taxation, population growth and control, abortion, crime and
punishment, religious freedom, genetic engineering, biological immortality, among other issues. The
decisions they make will affect all of humanity. Most people think that the collective consciousness of
the public instinctively, or innately, desires to choose the best conditions for all of society for the present
as well as their future. The shared knowledge, common wisdom, and the innate desire in human nature
to want what is the best for all, and the natural desire for survival, would result in decisions
advantageous to the human condition. This collective consciousness would form a constitution of direct
democracy which would implement the communal decisions of the people. Needed to be debated are
the, possible scenarios, and ethics of direct democratic systems in governments from the local, national,
and world levels (Mautner, 2000). The Internet has transformed the political atmosphere in the United
States and in the world. Using Internet technology, people now have the tools to discuss issues and
affect results concerning the American and world political arena. Online petitions and online research
have proven to be effective as well as online voting (mostly in California for the United States), online
fund-raising, political polling online, and online voter registration. The Internet is being used for
worldwide organizations and worldwide communication and a future of online polling and voting seems
to be inevitable and has in fact already begun (Browning, 2002).
In Direct Democracy in Switzerland (2002), Gregory Fossedal explores the history of
Switzerland as related to direct democracy and the development of the procedures of direct democracy
in Switzerland. He mentions that:
The Swiss polity, as an historical and on-going exhibit of the exercise of a deliberative direct democracy, is
a persuasive rebuttal to the stand of elites from the Greeks of yesterday to the elites of today who hold
that exclusionary representative democracy, in itself, is a better form of democracy than a direct democracy
in partnership with representative democracy....In a word, an effective rebuttal to the stand; you can’t trust
the people...Switzerland answers the potential question of the political scientist or citizen: What happens if
we place so much faith in the people that we make them lawmakers? In Switzerland, many issues are
settled through the use of public referendum where the majority vote determines the institutionalization of
a law or social practice. Matters such as constitutional revision, immigration, joining the League of
Nations or the United Nations or the European Union, establishing Romanish as a national language,
military service requirements, voting rights, nucear energy and nuclear weapons, rent control, legality of
abortion, highway construction, social security benefits, state support for religion, among others are
determined through public referendums. (Fossedal, 2002).
8
Concerning educating the public about the issues and processes of direct democracy:
In the Swiss parliament, the influence of direct democracy can be seen by a whole sociology of popular
orientation. Each member of the assembly thinks of himself as a teacher, and a teacher of the whole nation
of citizens. No teacher who holds his pupils in contempt will succeed, or even stay long on the job; hence
the pedagological impulse, healthy and strong to begin with, is reinforced. As well, a teacher with any
wisdom soon realizes he has much to learn from his pupils. The instruction is no longer one way -
particularly when the classroom is an intelligent on like the Swiss people, and the teacher a humble, parttime
instructor who thinks himself a citizen, not a sovereign. (Fossedal, 2002, 85).
One of the concerns many people have about online voting revolves around the security and
privacy issues and these are well-explored by Dr. Russell Smith in “Electronic Voting: Benefits and
Risks” (2002). Dr. Smith, who is deputy director of research at the Australian Institute of Criminology,
thinks national electronic voting will be prevalent in the near future, but people are hesitant because of
security and secrecy issues and some people now attach a certain ritual to voting and some would
therefore want to resist online voting in order to hold on to past traditions. He even includes a history of
the changing methods of voting procedures. He mentions that there would have to be sophisticated
servers for many people voting at the same time but the pluses of speed and accuracy, ease of use,
lower costs compared to paper ballots, the fact that online voting is already successfully being used in
many countries, etc., outweigh the minuses. Dr. Smith mentions in an interview (2003) with Rachel
Lebihan that, in his opinion, security is not an insurmountable problem, since the solutions that are used
in financial transactions can be incorporated into methods for e-voting. His expertise and knowledge is
evident in his writing and his use of examples and with many other technical experts on the project that
the security and efficiency issues can be solved.
Thomas Heaney, in Adult Education for Social Change: From Center Stage to the Wings and
Back Again, views adult education as participatory and as a tool for social change, where educational
progressivism is the contemporary approach to educating the public. “ ‘Adult education turns out to be
the most reliable instrument for social actionists’ since it assures that any action undertaken would be
authentically democratic” (Brookfield, 1984). Eduard Lindeman, as influenced by John Dewey,
considers adult education to be intertwined with democracy, social action, and control by people over
their daily lives. To Lindeman, adult education equals social change, a method to create good and
9
productive citizens. The concept of using the educational system to implement a direct democracy is
closely connected with the ideas expressed by Heaney, Miles Horton, Paulo Freire, and Jack Mezirow
since their approach is to empower the populace through education in order to create a democratic
society. Since it is necessary to have an educated public in order to have democracy function efficiently,
democracy is dependent on the educational system to survive and prosper.
.
10
A Curriculum for the Implementation of Direct Democracy
The social studies and political science classes would introduce, early in the development of the
curriculum - during the elementary school years - the first concepts of democracy as government
based on the will of and for the good of the people or society. The curriculum would eventually include
the history of democracy beginning with ancient Athens, Greece (and before) and its present forms of
use today in various countries and institutions and studies of its various methods of execution. Also
included in the course curriculum would be computer skills courses since thorough knowledge of
computer and Internet usage would be needed to implement and sustain the continuing use of a direct
democracy. Once the system is established and the procedures for its execution are in place and all
of the necessary legislation is passed to secure its structure, procedural content, and continuing
existence, the voters, or potential voters (who perhaps would require secured registration, training, and
perhaps certification to qualify to vote), would learn how to research and read about issues to be voted
on at the local, state, and national levels. Computer tutorials could also be developed to teach the
learners how this is done and even provide some practice voting sessions and hypothetical situations to
which they can respond.
After, and even before and during the discussion and implementation of a direct democracy
system, the most important aspect of creating a system whereby the information and training necessary
to maintain a direct democracy is to establish a curriculum, including the methods, institutions, and
locations to dispense that information. The information could be dispensed in schools, both public and
private, in home schooling situations, on the Internet, in books and magazines, and through commercial,
governmental, and community organizations. The most wide-ranging method of disseminating this
information would be through the public school system and colleges and universities.
The information could begin at home with the parents reading to their children with early learner
books. The curriculum could begin with the pre-kindergarten students by having the students vote for
what they like by placing balls into baskets and by showing flash cards showing the most basic ideas
involved about the concept of democracy. The curriculum could progress up through the school system
through the school system: through kindergarten, elementary, junior high school, high school, then
through colleges and universities as well as specialized schools, post-secondary institutions, and other
forms of adult education.
11
Following is a possible curriculum that could be revised, amended, and expanded to
accommodate changing instructional requirements and changing new technology as well as changing and
evolving informational content:
Pre-kindergarten: Flash cards with pictures depicting basic concepts and people and places
associated with democracy. Voting by raising hands, clapping, shouting, or placing balls in a
basket to show what they like as shown from pictures of the objects (such as apples, cake,
hamburgers, lemons, music, etc.)
Kindergarten: Vote by placing softball size balls in a container. Flash cards with pictures and words
of basic concepts of democracy.
First grade: Vote by placing ping pong balls in a container. Vote by writing letters. Flash cards with
words of leaders of history, places and events associated with democracy. Elect students for
class duties for each student such as erasing the board, closing the windows, turning off lights,
sweeping, etc. These duties can be rotated monthly.
Second grade: Vote by writing letters, numbers, and then names.
Third grade: Vote by writing names of the students and of objects voted on. For instance, for the
question What do you like? the students write what they like such as “ice cream”, etc.
Eventually, sentences are used.
Fourth grade: Vote for class officers and class duties. Students write sentences on what they want to
vote for and why. Read political news for children in Weekly Reader, Yahoo Kids’ page, etc.
Draw pictures and write paragraphs about democracy in the U.S.
Fifth grade: Vote for class officers and class duties. Voting by printed forms or writing names of
people or objects voted on. Introduction of the early history of democracy, around 500B.C. in
Athens, Greece. Draw pictures about fora in ancient Greece. Read Political news in Weekly
Reader, Yahoo Kids’ news, some newspapers and read about the history and practices of
democracy in the students’ social studies text books.
Sixth grade: Vote for class officers with ballots. Introduction to computers, software, using the
Internet for searching and researching information, introduction to Internet for voting. Write
essays and draw pictures about democracy, history related to democracy, and political topics in
the U.S. and the world.
Seventh grade: Vote for class officers and duties with computer and Internet technology. Study issues
to be voted on. Vote for issues of the past. Vote for some current issues. Write essays on
democracy, history, political topics, current invents, and new ideas of how society should be
constructed. Read the Declaration of Independence and a summarized version of the United
States Constitution. Memorize some quotations associated with democracy.
Eighth grade: Polical Science and History readings and discussions about direct democracy.
Magazine articles, newspaper articles, and Internet searches about direct democracy. Find an
international pen pal to discuss direct democracy with via the Internet.
12
Ninth grade: High school clubs established: Democracy Club; Political Science Club; Political
Philosophy; clubs for Democrats, Republicans, Green Party, Independents, etc. Develop
Internet surveys to find public opinion on various topics. Find books and articles about direct
democracy and write reports on them.
Tenth grade: Civics discussion of the responsibilities of the voting citizens. U. S. History and
Democracy. U.S. Constitution, Declaration of Independence. Terminology relevant to
democracy explored, direct democracy explained, duties and responsibilities of the voters.
Computer voting Tutorial I.
Eleventh grade: Learn to vote via the computer and Internet. World History of Democracy.
Discussion and essays about forms of government throughout history. Continue corresponding
with your international pen pal and ask your pen pal to find an additional join your
correspondence group to have three way discussions. Find one additional penpal to
correspond with via the Internet and discuss all current event topics including direct democracy.
Summarized readings of Plato’s Republic and the Politics by Aristotle. Read and write essays
on Democracy and Education by John Dewey and the Social Contract by Jean Jacques
Rousseau. Computer voting Tutorial II.
Twelfth grade: Vote via the Internet. Vote on current and historical national and international issues.
Direct democracy procedures examined, explained, discussed. Political Philosophy and duties
of and preparation for the voting public. Discussions comparing representative and direct
democracy, totalitarianism, Marxism, capitalism, and socialism. Read and write essays on:
Direct Democracy: The Politics of Initiative, Referendum, and Recall by Thomas Cronin; Direct
Democracy in Switzerland by Gregory Fossedal; Elections in Cyberspace by Anthony Corrado
and Charles Firestone and more essays on Democracy and Education by John Dewey.
Computer Voting Tutorial III.
Online Tutorials
The history of democracy
The philosophy of democracy
Glossary of terminology related to democracy and government
Navigating the computer and Internet for online voting
Computer Voting Tutorial I, II, III
Voting on Referendums, Initiatives, Elections for representatives, and Recalls
Preparation for certificate for a voting member of the Public Assembly
Writing and submitting legislation
Links, resources, publications, and organizations concerning direct democracy
Technical skills for the use of the computer and the Internet related to direct democracy
13
Below are listed university, post-secondary, adult, online courses, some of which are required,
in addition to taking the certificate exams, to become a voting member of the (newly created) public
legislature or Public Assembly. One certificate is for the local level, one for the state level, and one for
the national level (laws and an amendment would need to be enacted to create such a voting body).
The certificate would require at least a high school education or a recognized equivalent, for the person
to be a registered voter, All registered voters are able to vote in initiatives, referendums, elections, and
recalls but the Public Legislature would require a licensed certificate, similar to obtaining a driver’s
license or a specialist’s license, renewable periodically with minor exams, to become a nonelected
member of the Third House of Congress, which will count for 1/3 of the votes of the United States
Congress.
University, college, online, and adult courses (with majors in political science with an emphasis
on direct democracy and related subjects, some required for a voting certificate):
The growth and development of direct democracy
Writing and submitting legislative bills for a direct democracy
Topics covered in the voting certificate exams
Designing instructional material for direct democracy
The procedures for voting in a direct democracy
Political philosophy and direct democracy
The use of direct democracy in Switzerland
Procedures and precedents for amending the U.S.Constitution
The world history and use of direct democracy
The use of direct democracy in governments and organizations worldwide
Referendum, Initiative, Election, and Recall
Methods of informing the public on legislative and di d issues
Security issues of online voting
The governmental structure for direct democracy
Theories and use of democracy
14
University, Advanced and Adult Learner Reading List for Courses in Direct Democracy:
Adult Education for Social Change: From Center Stage to the Wings and Back Again. (1996) by
Thomas Heaney.
The Americans: The Democratic Experience (1974) by Boorstin, Daniel J. Boorstin.
America’s Crisis: The Direct Democracy and Direct Education Solution (2000) by D. B. Jeffs and V.
Hugo.
Aristotle and Xenophon on Democracy and Oligarchy (1975) by J. M. Moore.
Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project (2001) by the California Institute of Technology and The
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Corporation.
Citizens As Legislators: Direct Democracy in the United States (1998) by Bowler, S., Donovan, T. &
Tolbert, C.
Civic Participation and Community Action Sourcebook: A Resource for Adult Educators by A. Nash.
Collected Writings of Thomas Jefferson.
A Constitution of Direct Democracy : Pure Democracy and the Governance of the Future ~ Locally and
Globally (2000) by Michael Noah Mautner.
The Cultural Creatives: How 50 Million People are Changing the World (2000) by S.R. Anderson & P.
Ray.
The Communicative Ethics Controversy (1990) by S. Benhabib and F. Dallmayr.
Democracy: Real and Ideal, Discourse Ethics and Radical Politics (1999) by Ricardo Blaug.
Demanding Choices: Opinion, Voting, and Direct Democracy (2001) by Bowler, S, & Donovan, T.
Democracy and Education: An Introduction to the Philosophy of Education (1997) by John Dewey.
Democracy and Education and Prospects for Democracy (1994) by N. Chomsky.
Democracy, Citizenship and the Global City (2000) by E. F. Isin.
Democracy in America (2000) by Alexis de Tocqueville.
Democracy in the Digital Age : Challenges to Political Life in Cyberspace (2000) by Anthony G.
Wilhelm.
Developing e-Citizens and e-Consumers, an Irish e-Commerce Case Study (2001) by John
MacNamara.
Direct Democracy: The Politics of Initiative, Referendum & Recall (1999) by Thomas E. Cronin.
Direct Democracy in Switzerland (2002) by Gregory A. Fossedal.
Direct Democracy or Representative Government?: Dispelling the Populist Myth (2000) by John
Haskell.
The Economist: A better way to vote: Why letting the people themselves take the decisions is the logical
next step for the West (1993) by Brian Needham
15
Electronic Democracy: Using the Internet to Transform American Politics (2002) by Browning, G. &
Powell, A.C.
Electronic Media and Technoculture (2000) by John Thornton Caldwell.
E-Democracy, E-Governance, and Public Net-Work (2003) by Steven Clift.
Elections in Cyberspace: Toward a New Era in American Politics (1997) by A. Corrado.
E-democracy in Practice: Swedish Experiences of a New Political Tool (2001) by T. Rosen.
Electronic Voting: Benefits and Risks (2002) by Russell Smith.
Electronic Voting - Evaluating the Threat (1993) by M. I. Shamos.
Essay Concerning Human Understanding and Two Treatises of Government by John Locke.
E-topia (2000) by William J. Mitchell.
The Examined Life (2000) by Stanley Rosen.
The Future of Teledemocracy (2000) by T. Becker & C.D. Slaton.
The Handbook of Qualitative Research (2000) by J. Frow & M. Morris, M. (2000).
Leviathan (1998) by Thomas Hobbes.
Megatrends 2000 (1996) by J. Naisbitt and Aburdene P.
The New Challenge of Direct Democracy (1997) by Ian Budge.
New Schools for a New Century (1997) by Diane Ravitch and Joseph P. Viteritti.
Political Parties and Constitutional Government: Remaking American Democracy (1999) by S. M.
Milkis.
The Prince by Niccolo Machiavelli.
Republic (1998) by Plato.
Rethinking Democracy and Education: Towards an Education of Deliberative Citizens (2000) by T.
Englund.
The Social Contract by Jean-Jacques Rousseau.
The Spirit of Laws by Montesquieu.
Stealing the Initiative: How State Government Responds to Direct Democracy (2000) by E. R. Gerber,
A. Lupia, M. D. McCubbins & D. R. Kiewiet.
Technoscience and Cyberculture (1996) by S. Aronowitz, B. Martinsons, M. Menser, and J. Rich.
The Third Wave (1984) by Alvin Toffler.
United States Constitution, the Declaration of Independence, the Federalist Papers.
Virtual Environmental Citizenship: Web-Based Public Participation in Rulemaking in the U.S. (2003) by
Schlosberg, D.
The World in 2020: Power, Culture, and Prosperity (1994) by Hamish McRae
16
Conclusion
The concept of democracy was discussed by Socrates and written about by Plato in Republic,
Aristotle in Politics, Machiavelli in The Prince, Locke in Essay Concerning Human Understanding and
Two Treatises of Government, Montesquieu in The Spirit of Laws, Hobbes in Leviathan, Rousseau in
The Social Contract, and Thomas Jefferson in his writings. Democracy was first used in Athens, Greece
before 500 B.C., where each citizen voted directly on all legislative issues, thereby being a true
democracy. Direct participatory democracy was considered impractical before now, primarily because
there was no technology to supply it. Now, with computer and Internet technology, there is.
Computer and Internet technology can supply the forum for the voting of citizens to occur and
schools and community and governmental organizations can supply the knowledge, information, and
training for the implementation and continuing use of a direct democracy.
17
Bibliography:
Aronowitz, S., Martinsons, B., Menser, M., and Rich, J. (1996). Technoscience and Cyberculture.
New York and London: Routledge.
Becker, T. & Slaton, C.D. (2000). The Future of Teledemocracy. Praeger Publishers.
Benhabib, S., and Dallmayr, F. (1990). The Communicative Ethics Controversy. London: The MIT
Press.
Blaug, Ricardo (1999). Democracy: Real and Ideal, Discourse Ethics and Radical Politics. Albany,
New York: State University of New York Press.
Bowler, S., Donovan, T. & Tolbert, C. (1998). Citizens As Legislators: Direct Democracy in the
United States. Columbus, OH: Ohio State University Press.
Bowler, S, & Donovan, T. (2001). Demanding Choices: Opinion, Voting, and Direct Democracy.
Ann Arbour, MI: University of Michigan Press.
Browning, G. & Powell, A.C. (2002). Electronic Democracy: Using the Internet to Transform
American Politics. Cyberage Books.
Budge, Ian. (1997). The New Challenge of Direct Democracy. Polity Press.
Bushell, Sue. (2003). Where to Now for E-Voting? Retrieved January. 24, 2004 from: http://
www.cio.com.au/index.php?id=405941257&eid=-601
Caldwell, John Thornton. (2000). Electronic Media and Technoculture. New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers
University Press.
Castells. Information Technology, Globalization, and Social Development.
Chomsky, N. (1994). Democracy and Education. Retrieved January 24, 2004 from http://
www.zmag.org/chomsky/talks/9410-education.html
Corrado, A. & Firestone, C.M. (1997). Elections in Cyberspace: Toward a New Era in American
Politics. Aspen, CO: Aspen Institute Publications Office.
Cronin, Thomas E. (1999). Direct Democracy: The Politics of Initiative, Referendum & Recall.
Cambridge, MA and London: Harvard University Press.
Becker, T. & Slaton, C.D. (2000). The Future of Teledemocracy. New York: Praeger Publishers.
Dewey, John. (1997). Democracy and Education: An Introduction to the Philosophy of Educa
tion. New York: Free Press, Simon & Schuster.
Fossedal, Gregory A. (2002). Direct Democracy in Switzerland. Transaction Publications.
Gerber, E. R., Lupia, A., McCubbins, M.D. & Kiewiet, D.R. (2000). Stealing the Initiative: How
State Government Responds to Direct Democracy. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.
18
Haskell, John. (2000). Direct Democracy or Representative Government?: Dispelling the Populist
Myth. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
Heaney, Thomas. Adult Education for Social Change: From Center Stage to the Wings and Back
Again. (1996). Retrieved on January 15, 2004 from http://www.nl.edu/ace/Resources/
Documents/ERIC1.html
Isin, Engin F. (2000). Democracy, Citizenship and the Global City. New York and London:
Routledge.
Lebihan, Rachel. (2003). Arm twisting to hinder home electronic voting. Retrieved on October 24,
2003 from http://www.zdnet.com.au/newstech/communications/story/
0,2000048620,20265293,00.htm
MacNamara, O'Donnell. Developing e-Citizens and e-Consumers, an Irish e-Commerce Case
Study. http://66.218.71.225/search/cache?p=The+Ecitizen.+
Instructional+Technology.,+Lee,+John+K.++&sub=Search&ei=UTF-
8&url=fe_aPyZrSDAJ:www.efmd.be/learninggroups/chapter/eisb2001proceedings/pdfs/
MacNamara%2520%2520O%27Donnell%2520.pdf
Mautner, Michael Noah. (2000). A Constitution of Direct Democracy : Pure Democracy and the
Governance of the Future ~ Locally and Globally. Christchurch, New Zealand: Legacy
Books.
McRae, Hamish. (1994). The World in 2020: Power, Culture, and Prosperity. Boston: Harvard
Business School Press. Mitchell, William J. (2000). E-topia. London: The MIT Press.
Patrick. (2003). Recent Email from a Swiss Citizen. Retrieved on January 17, 2004 from
http://www.vote.org/swiss.htm
Plato. (1998). Republic. New York: Oxford University Press.
Rousseau, Jean-Jacques. (1999). The Social Contract. New York: Oxford University Press.
Salant, P. & Dillman, D. (1994). How to Conduct Your Own Survey. New York: John Wiley &
Sons, Inc.
Shamos, M.I. (1993). Electronic Voting -- Evaluating the Threat. Retrieved October 15, 2003
from http://www.cpsr.org/conferences/cfp93/shamos.html
Smith, Russell. Electronic Voting: Benefits and Risks. (2002). Retrieved October 24, 2003 from
http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/tandi/ti224.pdf Stirner, M. (1967). The False Principle of our
Education, or, Humanism and Reform. Colorado Springs: Ralph Melees Publisher.
Wilhelm, Anthony G. (2000). Democracy in the Digital Age : Challenges to Political Life in
Cyberspace. New York and London: Routledge.
19
Some websites concerning direct democracy and e-government:
http://www.developmentgateway.org/node/130619/?page_id=3647 (worldwide egovernment)
http://thomas.loc.gov/ ( the proceedings of the U.S. Congress and egovernment development)
http://egov.mit.gov.in/ (egovernment in India)
http://www.abc.net.au/ola/citizen/interdemoc/republic.htm
http://www.veritasdigital.com/ad_online/participatory.html
http://www.cpsu.org.uk/downloads/Modernising%20Background.pdf
http://www.publicus.net/ebook/
http://www.mail-archive.com/do-wire@tc.umn.edu/msg00045.html
http://policy.womenspace.ca/activities/brainstorm/policy/
http://www.analysphere.com/21Oct00/democracy.htm
http://www.statskontoret.se/gol-democracy/links/Popular/
http://www.itac.ca/client/ITAC/ITAC_UW_MainEngine.nsf/object/Imperative/$file/Agnew.pdf
http://www.one2one.co.nz/edemocracy.html
http://www.politics.tcd.ie/courses/undergrad/bcc/portal/egovernance.html
http://www.internetnz.net.nz/members/lists/isocnz-council-tidbits/2000-August/000012.html
http://www.flaxroots.net.nz/2000/papers/2000-PaulHughes.html
http://www.context.co.nz:8080/newsItems/viewDepartment$Participatory+Democracy
http://langue.hyper.chubu.ac.jp/jalt/pub/tlt/00/dec/scott.html
http://www.diverdiver.com/2003_03_07_diverdiver_archive.html
http://www.democracy-online.org/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A8287-2003Feb26
http://lists.essential.org/1995/info-policy-notes/msg00137.html
http://mondediplo.com/1998/12/03bensaid (third way government)
http://www.jhu.edu/news_info/news/topic/politics.html (online voting)
http://lone-eagles.com/democracy.htm (list of related links and sources)
http://www.democracy-online.org/ (another list of related links and sources)
http://egov.mit.gov.in/ (egovernment development in India)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/ancient/greeks/greekdemocracy_01.shtml
http://www.bris.ac.uk/Depts/Philosophy/UG/ugunits0102/rousseau.html
http://www.wabash.edu/Rousseau/WorksonWeb.html
http://www.sosig.ac.uk/roads/subject-listing/World-cat/philpol.html
http://www.bu.edu/wcp/Papers/Poli/PoliFeld.htm
http://www.bu.edu/wcp/MainPoli.htm
http://www.bu.edu/wcp/Papers/Poli/PoliBuch.htm
http://oregonstate.edu/instruct/phl302/texts/locke/locke2/2nd-contents.html
http://www.sosig.ac.uk/roads/subject-listing/World-cat/demgovt.html
http://www.ancientworlds.net/aw/Post/32871
http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/class/300/300pix/300.ideas.html
http://teachers.ausd.net/antilla/philolinks.html
http://plato.stanford.edu
http://www.rep.routledge.com/index.html
http://www.bris.ac.uk/Depts/Philosophy/Dept/journals.html
http://www.bris.ac.uk/DeptsPhilosophy/Dept/Links.htm
http://www.bris.ac.uk/Depts/Philosophy/VL/index.html
http://web.mit.edu/polisci/www/research/goodness.html
http://etext.virginia.edu/jefferson/quotations/jeff0600.htm
http://www.anova.org/
http://www.developmentgateway.org/node/130619/?page_id=3647
http://www.pdemokracie.ecn.cz/cs/doc/Statut-ang.doc
http://edemocracy.meetup.com/members/878
http://dmoz.org/Society/Politics/Democracy/Direct_Democracy/
http://www.dominion-web.com/directory/Top/Society/Politics/Democracy/Direct_Democracy
http://www.free-project.org/connect/links/
http://www.election.com/
http://www.votehere.net/
http://www.lib.ied.edu.hk/edarticle/civic.htm
http://edu.uwe.ac.uk/cred/bibliographic/papers.asp
http://www.egov.vic.gov.au/Research/ElectronicDemocracy/voting.htm
http://www.louiseferguson.com/resources/evoting.htm
20
Appendix I:
A Proposal for Creating the Third House of Congress: the Public Assembly
for the Creation of a National Democracy in the United States of America
Richard Bloodworth
Phase 1 (3 to 10 years):
Debate and Introduction to the Concept
Discussions and committees formed
Brain storming and think tank groups developed
Petitions and letters, email, talk shows, TV, radio campaigns
Public education of the concept
Readings and discussions in schools and universities about democracy
Concepts related to direct democracy discussed and read about in schools
Writers and Artists commissioned
Software conceptualizing
Books and magazine articles are printed on the subject
Funding and economic issues are discussed
Funds raised
A suggestion hotline is established
An official website is created
Phase 2 (2 years):
Organizing and structuring of the voting methods and procedures
Curriculum developed for public schools and universities
Development of the Government Structure
Legal Documents developed
Constitutional amendment first draft written
Various committees appointed
Local referendums held
21
. Phase 3 (3 years):
All of the above activities continue (website, etc.)
Trial period when the procedures are developed, refined and the first results used as an opinion
polling collection device.
Educating the public on the procedures involved
Curriculum about direct democracy initiated for public schools and universities
First trials are done locally, first city, then county, then state, then national levels
During this period suggestions and changes are made
Software is developed
Security issues addressed
Computer and software bugs are worked out
Initial voting centers are established, these can be adjacent to post offices
Participants (initial voters) are assigned temporary voter registration numbers and passwords,
etc. chosen. The voter registration numbers are assigned through the voting centers.
Phase 4 (3 years):
Voting Centers are established nationwide
Voter registration numbers are established partly containing a social security number.
Voting Centers have the bills and plans to be voted on in booklet form and posted on the walls
and these bills and plans are also available online for perusal and study.
The voter registration numbers, including a social security number, are assigned through the
voting centers in a way similar to registering to vote and passwords are chosen. (Voters
are given up to 3 days to edit or change their submissions when voting)
The opinion poll collection system continues using the online voting system
Strict felony laws against Internet abuse or direct voting fraud with severe penalties and punishments
are passed by the legislature.
Phase 5 (Continuing):
Voters are able to connect to the voting system via the Internet with their own computers, or
continue to vote through the Voting Centers, and become voting members of the 3rd
House of Congress, the Public Assembly according to U.S. federal law and also of
state, county, and city governments as laws of each state allow.
In the future, computers will be as standard as telephones and everyone with a telephone will
have a computer with which they can cast there votes and then the United States government will
become a truly participatory government of democracy.
22
Appendix II
Open-Ended Questions for Social Studies and Political Science Teachers:
The below are some sample questions are in the form of open-ended questions that can be
answered with essay type answers:
How has direct democracy been practiced in other countries and institutions and how effective has it
been?
How can the educational system participate in the implementation of a direct democracy utilizing
Internet and computer technology?
How can direct democracy be introduced and taught in Social Studies and Political Science courses?
How can a constitutional amendment be proposed?
How can the reliability of Internet voting be assessed?
How can the privacy and security of voters be assured?
How can the public be informed of issues to be voted on?
How can the voters register their votes via the Internet or computer?
How can the public be made aware of the safety and limitations of direct democracy?
How can the public be made aware of the roles and duties of citizens in a democracy?
How can the public be made aware of the philosophy and history of democracy?
An example of how one of the sample questions could be answered:
-- How can a Constitutional amendment be proposed?
Constitutional amendments are permanent additions to the Constitution, though they can be
counter amended as was the case with the Prohibition amendment, that require a 2/3 vote from both
houses of the Congress and therefore very difficult to obtain. There have been twenty seven
Constitutional Amendments with the most recent being in 1992 which involved no Congressional self
salary increases while the legislators are in their terms. The twelfth Amendment concerning changing the
method of electing the president of the United States using the Electoral College was added in 1803
after the first ten Amendments, the Bill of Rights, were added in 1791.
23
Appendix III
An Example of a Likert Scale Item Survey that could be Sent to
Social Studies and Political Science Teachers:
These closed-ended items can be responded to with linear scale responses (strongly disagree
to strongly agree, or don’t know):
Direct democracy been practiced in other countries and institutions and has been effective
1 strongly disagree 2 3 4 strongly agree 5 Don’t know 0
The educational system should participate in the implementation of a direct democracy utilizing Internet
and computer technology.
1 strongly disagree 2 3 4 strongly agree 5 Don’t know 0
Direct democracy should be introduced and taught in Social Studies and Political Science courses.
1 strongly disagree 2 3 4 strongly agree 5 Don’t know 0
A Constitutional amendment should be proposed creating a direct democracy system in the United
States.
1 strongly disagree 2 3 4 strongly agree 5 Don’t know 0
The Internet is a reliable method of voting.
1 strongly disagree 2 3 4 strongly agree 5 Don’t know 0
The voters have complete privacy and security
1 strongly disagree 2 3 4 strongly agree 5 Don’t know 0
.
The public can be informed of issues to be voted on.
1 strongly disagree 2 3 4 strongly agree 5 Don’t know 0
24
The voters could easily register their votes via the Internet or computer.
1 strongly disagree 2 3 4 strongly agree 5 Don’t know 0
The public should be made aware of the safety using the Internet for direct democracy.
1 strongly disagree 2 3 4 strongly agree 5 Don’t know 0
The public should be made aware of the limitations of direct democracy.
1 strongly disagree 2 3 4 strongly agree 5 Don’t know 0
The public should be made aware of the roles and duties of citizens in a democracy.
1 strongly disagree 2 3 4 strongly agree 5 Don’t know 0
The public should be made aware of the philosophy and history of democracy.
1 strongly disagree 2 3 4 strongly agree 5 Don’t know 0
Some other possible questions that could be used as Likert scale items are:
Do you think the United States is a democracy now?
Do you think Direct Democracy or people voting directly on legislative issues is a good idea?
Do you think adequate technology exists today for direct democracy?
Do you think adequate education, information, and training can be given to citizens for them to vote as
legislators?
Do you think interest for direct democracy would be maintained by the public?
Do you think that eventually a new branch of Congress could be formed by the voting citizens?
Do you think the people’s voting branch of Congress could be used first as an opinion collection
device?
Do you think citizens and students should study for and take examinations in order to receive
certification in order to qualify as a voting member of a legislature in a direct democracy?
Should the public schools provide education and training for citizens to function as voting members of a
direct democracy system of government?
25